-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
811
FXUS61 KCTP 012336
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
736 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Warm/dry weather with lower humidity into Thursday
-Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain
 and thunderstorms Sat/Sun

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Patches of clouds at different (generally higher) altitudes will
drift across the CWA overnight. 5H heights rise and so do the 8H
temps overnight. Expect decent but not great radiational cooling
as winds go light, and even calm in deeper valleys. Did hint at
some patchy valley fog late tonight, but that may be a stretch
given the drying we had today/Wed. Current dewpoints in the L40s
to L50s do rise a little by morning mainly due to
stratification/loss of mixing. So, T-Td may touch briefly in
the cooler north-central valleys before sunrise.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
5H ridge crests overhead Thurs. Plenty of sunshine through only
patchy clouds will allow good heating. The 8H/llvl temps fall a
little across the N as a weak/dry cool front inches across the
CWA. We should add 5F onto maxes in the S compared to Wed, but
the NW/Alleghenies may fall 3-5F short of Wed. While at least
one HREF member makes a spotty aftn shower or two across the S,
we think the dryness of the airmass and healthy CINH will keep
anything from reaching the ground.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thursday night will remain dry and mild. Easterly flow begins
to take hold on Friday, as high pressure noses down the eastside
of the Appalachians. This should result in cooler temperatures
Friday, especially across eastern PA. This setup could also
favor low clouds into the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley
Friday night into Sat AM.

A frontal boundary will slowly make it`s way eastward from the
Midwest into the Commonwealth Saturday into Sunday, accompanied
by showers and storms.

Passage of the upper trough and associated front should bring
drier conditions by Monday of next week, before an approaching
warm front looks to bring increasing likelihood for a return of
clouds and showers/storms for Tuesday and now Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
There could be a few high and mid-level clouds passing overhead
overnight, as a weak area of low pressure passes to our north
and pushes a weak/dry cold front into the area. A light SWerly
breeze (5-10 kts) will persist across the western highlands
overnight, while winds should largely become light/variable
southeast of the Allegheny Front. There could be a bit of valley
fog in the central valleys, and have maintained a hint of this
in the IPT TAF.

An upper ridge will build overhead on Thursday, producing
a sunny day with widespread VFR conds. Sfc winds will become
NWerly, and could gust 15-20 kts by aftn.

Outlook...

Thu night-Fri AM...Predominantly VFR.

Fri PM-Sat...Scattered SHRA/TSRA developing from west to east
w/ brief reductions possible.

Sat night-Sun...Widespread SHRA/TSRA expected. Reductions
likely.

Mon...AM fog/clouds poss W. PM -SHRA possible areawide.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures were set at the following locations
on Monday:

SITE        2024 OBS     PRVS RECORD
Altoona          86F     83F (1956)
Bradford         82F     76F (1984)
Williamsport     89F     86F (1942/1974)

It was also the first 80F day in Bradford so far this year,
almost 2 weeks ahead of the average first 80F temperature (May
11th).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Gartner/Evanego
AVIATION...Evanego
CLIMATE...Banghoff/Colbert