Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 162341
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
641 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017
A brisk and cold northwest flow will
decrease tonight as high pressure builds into the region.
Temperatures will bottom out in the teens and lower 20s tonight
before moderation begins on Friday. A stretch of spring- like
weather is expected over the weekend and into next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Lake enhanced, orographic snow flurries continue to decrease in
coverage and intensity and cancelled the Lake Effect Snow
Advisory for Warren County early this afternoon. Impressive wave
clouds cover most of central and southeast PA this afternoon as
the cool northwest flow persists over the commonwealth. These
will tend to decrease as we head towards late afternoon and
especially after sunset over the southeast. The west and north
will hold onto the clouds the longest tonight thanks to the
persistent lake fetch...but building high will shut this off
later tonight. A cold night will be had throughout with lows
ranging from the mid teens north to the lower 20s southeast.
Gusty winds will finally die down as well late tonight.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The beginning of a long-lived warmup starts Friday as large
upper ridge over the upper midwest moves to the western GLAKS in
the afternoon, and surface ridge builds into central and eastern
PA by late in the day. Highs will reach the upper 30s north and
mid 40s south...but with plenty of sunshine following this
chilly Thursday, it will feel much nicer than that. A harbinger
of things to come for the next several days for sure.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
From Friday onward the region will be in a warm trend through
next week. A weak cold front will push into the region Sat
night. However, it has little to no mid to low level moisture so
no precipitation is expected. That front will give way to a
rather strong high pressure system that will build over the
eastern United states and Canada into mid next week. After this
ridge moves eastward mainly zonal flow will dominate the weather
pattern, keeping warm air across the region. High temperatures
will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min temperatures
mainly above freezing. Latest plumes are fairly consistent
through Monday before there becomes more of a spread in the
ensembles. However even the ensemble mean remains above normal
through this period.
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Clouds amd snow showers will persist overnight, given a
northwest flow of air across the Great Lakes.
Conditions will improve on Friday, as high pressure moves
east of the area, and winds shift to the southwest.
Several mild spring like days in store for the area this
weekend into the first part of next week. Should be mainly
VFR, but patchy morning fog will be possible at some point,
as dewpoints come up.
Sat-Tue...VFR/No sig wx
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