Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 162341 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 641 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A brisk and cold northwest flow will decrease tonight as high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will bottom out in the teens and lower 20s tonight before moderation begins on Friday. A stretch of spring- like weather is expected over the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Lake enhanced, orographic snow flurries continue to decrease in coverage and intensity and cancelled the Lake Effect Snow Advisory for Warren County early this afternoon. Impressive wave clouds cover most of central and southeast PA this afternoon as the cool northwest flow persists over the commonwealth. These will tend to decrease as we head towards late afternoon and especially after sunset over the southeast. The west and north will hold onto the clouds the longest tonight thanks to the persistent lake fetch...but building high will shut this off later tonight. A cold night will be had throughout with lows ranging from the mid teens north to the lower 20s southeast. Gusty winds will finally die down as well late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The beginning of a long-lived warmup starts Friday as large upper ridge over the upper midwest moves to the western GLAKS in the afternoon, and surface ridge builds into central and eastern PA by late in the day. Highs will reach the upper 30s north and mid 40s south...but with plenty of sunshine following this chilly Thursday, it will feel much nicer than that. A harbinger of things to come for the next several days for sure. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... From Friday onward the region will be in a warm trend through next week. A weak cold front will push into the region Sat night. However, it has little to no mid to low level moisture so no precipitation is expected. That front will give way to a rather strong high pressure system that will build over the eastern United states and Canada into mid next week. After this ridge moves eastward mainly zonal flow will dominate the weather pattern, keeping warm air across the region. High temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min temperatures mainly above freezing. Latest plumes are fairly consistent through Monday before there becomes more of a spread in the ensembles. However even the ensemble mean remains above normal through this period. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Clouds amd snow showers will persist overnight, given a northwest flow of air across the Great Lakes. Conditions will improve on Friday, as high pressure moves east of the area, and winds shift to the southwest. Several mild spring like days in store for the area this weekend into the first part of next week. Should be mainly VFR, but patchy morning fog will be possible at some point, as dewpoints come up. Outlook... Sat-Tue...VFR/No sig wx
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru AVIATION...Martin

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