Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 310844 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD MY FCST AREA. THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY. THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE CAPES. WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO PRODUCT. HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS SUMMER. IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM. ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
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AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S COOKOUTS. OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THERE WERE A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NW AT MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THESE NE OF OUR AREA...UP IN WESTERN NY. MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS WILL BE IN SOME SPOTS. 06Z TAFS SENT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN. OUTLOOK... MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS. TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS. WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN

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