Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 021912 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 312 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCTATTERED TO NUMEROUS...GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WETTER AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AREAS OF HIGH BASED CU...WILL LIFT/TRANSITION INTO A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF ALTO CU ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CFRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP BLYR FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING AND SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KTS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS MILDER TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD SNEAK INTO OUR FAR NW ZONES TWD 12Z MONDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
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SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK PLACES ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE PART OF OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE MONDAY. THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMING OF THE CFRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE PER THE LATEST SREF...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL HAVE FAIRLY STRONG...AND WELL-ALIGNED -06 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING FROM 25-35 KTS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...TO 40-50 KTS INVOF OF THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MESOSCALE UVVEL CLOSE TO THE FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE ONE OR MORE BKN TSRA LINES CONTAINING ENHANCED BOWS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE AS DCAPES SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH AND LCL/S AOA 1KM AGL IN MOST PLACES. TEMPS WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE U70S TO L80S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. READINGS COULD TOUCH 90F IN THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE THE STORMS MOVE DOWN FROM THE NW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE. A DRY DAY OR TWO WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT WAGGLES MORE NORTH THAN SOUTH. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS UP COMING WEEK WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF BLYR DOESN/T COMPLETELY DECOUPLE LATER TONIGHT...LLWS MAY BE NEEDED - MAINLY AT KBFD. LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WITH MDT TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WESTERLY SHEAR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE WITH SCT TO NMRS TSTMS LKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH BRIEF AND HIGHLY-LOCALIZED WESTERLY SFC WIND GUSTS AOA 40KTS. OUTLOOK... MON...VFR WITH LCL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT-NMRS P.M. TSTMS OCCURRING IN ONE OR TWO NORTH-SOUTH BKN LINES. TUE...MAINLY VFR IN DRY NW FLOW. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN WITH POSSIBLE VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. WED-FRI...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR VIS IN ISOLD-SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON TSTMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...MARTIN/TYBURSKI AVIATION...LAMBERT

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