Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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982 FXUS61 KCTP 181956 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 356 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A persistent ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain fair, warm and generally dry weather during the entire upcoming week, and likely through the weekend as well. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Satellite shows the fog and low clouds have mixed out out over all but my far sern counties where the marine layer is deeper and slower to dry/mix out. Radar shows a few small showers popping up over my western zones where higher PWATs and heating on the ridges are forcing some local convection. There is a pretty good wedge of dry air around 700mb so showers will remain squat, with most areas remaining dry. The overnight will be a carbon copy from the department of redundancy department with daytime showers fading early followed by fair skies then followed by developing valley fog and low clouds. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s will average around 10 deg above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Tuesday will once again begin with the locally dense valley fog, burning off to a partly-mostly sunny afternoon as the upper ridge axis continues to reside right over central PA. The western extent of the outer bands of showers associated with Hurricane Jose that will be east of the Delmarva coast will flirt with SERN zones where I painted chance POPs in the afternoon. With expected light rain and thicker cloud cover, temps will likely be suppressed a bit across that region of the CWA compared to recent days. Max temps elsewhere will continue to run 6-10F above normal for mid September. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our weather. As Jose moves away to the NE, heights will rise and this should further dry us out for the second half of this week. The GEFS forecasts a closed 5880 m ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal heights by Friday and Saturday which will translate to well above normal temps. Enjoy! && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Lingering MVFR ceilings over my SERN terminals will improve to VFR for a short time this afternoon before conditions deteriorate once again overnight. The last several nights have seen the development of fairly widespread fog and low clouds, and tonight will be no exception with MVFR/IFR expected by late evening and IFR/LIFR expected after midnight into the hours following sunrise Tuesday. .Outlook... Tue...AM restrictions in low clouds/fog trending to VFR. Isold shower NW. -RA psbl far eastern airspace associated with Jose. Wed-Sat...AM restrictions in low clouds/fog; otherwise VFR with no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte

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