-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 151207
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
807 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE BY TONIGHT...AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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VALLEY FOG OVER THE WEST ALONG WITH A LITTLE STRATUS ON THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHICH MAKES FOR A VERY INTERESTING/WIERD SAT VIEW THIS
MORNING. ANY FOG AND MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY WITH SUNSHINE BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITH ONLY A VERY FEW
CU...THEN THIN HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. 850
MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +11C TO +14C AND MODERATE MIXING SHOULD
YIELD MAX SFC TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER 06Z. EXPECT AN MCS TO
FORM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GLAKS AND TRACK INTO THE
ERN GLAKS BY 12Z SUN...AIDED BY DEEP LAYER PW SURGING TO 1.75" OR
HIGHER IN A PLUME THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NEWD INTO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ONTARIO. THE DECAYING MCS SHOULD TRACK RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND IT. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

MAXES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY
GIVEN DECREASED OVERALL SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPS IN THE
+12C TO +15C RANGE WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR THAT AND EXPECT ONLY
A 2-3F DECREASE IN MAX TEMPS FROM SAT TO SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM PREV FORECAST. MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW TO
START THE PERIOD WILL SAG A LITTLE INTO A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. GFS THEN HINTS AT A GREAT WARM UP
FOR NEXT WEEKEND /DAY 8 PLUS/ AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH IN THE NERN
U.S. A BIT LONGER...SO THE HEAT MAY WAIT A DAY OR SO LONGER THAN
OPERATIONAL GFS CURRENTLY ADVERTISES.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO HURRY UP BY A FEW HOURS THE SHOWERS WHICH
COULD ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE WEST. ALSO SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS TO LIKLIES FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL SET UP SHOP FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN AT THE SFC FOR MID-WEEK.
MADE THIS A BIT MORE OBVIOUS BY TWEAKING POPS DOWN INTO
UNMENTIONABLE RANGES FOR THE MIDDLE/LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
BROAD SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE THE WARM AIR IN
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/S COULD
TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE WARM AIR TRIES
TO WORK NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY. DENSE FOG OVER
BFD SHOULD LIFT BY 15Z. MVFR AT JST SHOULD LIFT DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL. ELSE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLATED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN TERMINALS
LATE MORNING SUNDAY...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL LOCATIONS BY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX.
SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...JUNG/CERU