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000
FXUS61 KCTP 190617
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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THE PERSISTENT MEAN TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES WILL BE REPLACED BY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING SOME OF THE WARMEST AIR
OF THE SEASON TO THE AREA...WITH THE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ARRIVING ON SCHEDULE WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SHOULD UNFOLD NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
THE MAIN JET STREAM TAKES UP ITS USUAL RESIDENCE ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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RADAR SHOWS THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS DRIFTING SWD FM SOUTH MTN
ACRS THE MASON-DIXON LINE INTO NRN MD. NLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES
MIGRATING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIRECT DRIER AIR INTO THE
CWA THRU THE MORNING...ENDING THE THREAT OF PCPN ACRS THE FAR SRN
TIER. IR SATL SHOWS LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACRS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND S-CNTRL MTNS INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS...BUT IN GENERAL
EXPECT CONDS TO IMPROVE HEADING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL OVR NRN PA WITH DAYBREAK TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MID
40S.

H5 HGTS WILL START TO RISE AS THE MEAN NERN CONUS TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. HIGH PRES WILL BRING FAIR WX TO THE AREA TODAY WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND PLEASANT/COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. CLR SKIES AND LOW
PWATS WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN PA WHERE
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. MAV GUID HAS
36F FOR BFD SUGGESTING SOME PATCHY FROST MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SHIFT EWD THIS PERIOD AS
A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. H5
HGTS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST. THE
RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DAYTIME TEMPS AND
LLVL MSTR/DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY. THE WARMER PATTERN WILL ARRIVE ON
SCHEDULE WITH THE FIRST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER. MDL DATA
SUGGESTS SOME ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE APPALCHNS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT MOST AREAS TO STAY
PCPN-FREE.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HEIGHTS PEAK. BIGGER SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS SLIDES IN FROM
THE WEST AS HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD...SO A SERIES OF VERY WARM AND
HUMID DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SAT INTO TUES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING QUITE MILD AS WELL. WITH STAGNANT AIR AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH...HELD ON TO 20-30 POPS MOST
AFTERNOONS - WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF
ISOLATED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING INITIATED STORMS.

PATTERN ALSO HAS A RING-OF-FIRE LOOK TO IT SO WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR MCS ACTIVITY/RIDGE ROLLERS SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NW...THOUGH
LATEST MODELS NOT QUITE AS BULLISH ON THAT. EC OVERALL PRODUCING
MORE CONVECTION THAN THE GFS...BUT GENERAL AREAS ARE SIMILAR.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ACT AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE
FCST AREA. MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM JST EASTWARD AS THE SHOWERS
MEANDER ABOUT. BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL BE WHERE IT
RAINED THIS EVENING.

ANY EARLY MVFR OVER SRN AREAS WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF
THE GR LAKES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WX INTO THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT-SUN...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE