Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251610 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1210 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A STRING OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILD DAYS FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA DURING MID WEEK. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THE DUAL LAYER OF STRATO CU AND ALTO CU HAVE MIXED OUT/ERODED QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ARE NOW CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AT NOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SUSQ REGION WILL MIX WITH SOME FLAT CU AND ALTO CU DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT AT 16Z EXTENDED FROM SERN MICHIGAN TO NRN INDIANA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE NW MTNS OF PENN 21-23Z ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA. AS VERTICAL MIXING CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS THE SW-WSW WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20 KT RANGE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 3-4F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /FRIDAY/. MAXS WILL BE IN U50S TO L60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND 60S TO NEAR 70F HEADING SE FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS TO THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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VERY LIGHT QPF IS STILL THE FORECAST OVER THE NW...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED NEAR...AND TO THE SE OF A IPT/UNV/AOO LINE AS THE FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH. THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY. LOW DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW KFT WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO HAVE THE HIGHER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE EVENING AS THE DRY FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY WHEN THE FRONT IS GOING THROUGH. BUT THE 45+ KT WINDS AT 5-6KFT ARE A TIP-OFF. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE WIND TONIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S ON SUNDAY. THIS AND THE FINE FUELS COULD LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE RH/S SHOULD NOT DIP BELOW 30 PCT...THANKS TO COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE ABOVE NOTED CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AGAINST POSTING A FIRE WX WATCH AT THIS POINT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW JET STREAM PATTERN OVER THE CONTERMINOUS U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GENERAL TROFFINESS OVER THE NERN U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ENHANCED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...TROFFING/FALLING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS IN PA ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG- WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT. THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEAR TO MOVE OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVR THE GRT LKS. A SW FLOW OF MILDER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL IS PRODUCING A DUAL LAYER OF BKN STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CLOUDS OVR NORTHERN AND WRN PA LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000 FT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM KJST...TO KDUJ AND KBFD. ELSEWHERE...NEAR AND TO THE SE OF A KAOO...TO KUNV AND KIPT LINE...JUST SCT-BKN HIGH-BASED STRATOCU ...AND ALTOCU WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BASES AOA 6 KFT AGL. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE SWRLY WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE AM AND AFTN UP TO 25KTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AN NW MTNS. AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...A BRIEF SHOWER AND DIP TO MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT KBFD AND KJST. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF VFR FLYING CONDS WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES. OUTLOOK... SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. TUE...GUSTY WINDS/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE OVR THE W MTNS. WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT

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