Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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477 FXUS61 KCTP 191901 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 201 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A large area of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will maintain fair skies for the next few days. Temperatures will climb above normal over the upcoming days with mainly dry weather continuing. A cold front will move through the area later Monday night and early Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The high clouds over the east have become more patchy, leaving a bright day with filtered sunshine in most locations. Fair and milder conditions will continue as the upper ridge builds over the region. Highs will range from the lower 30s north to the mid 40s in the south. Overnight lows will average in the 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
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The latest ensemble MOS pops show a small chance of some light rain reaching my far NW counties around sunset Saturday. Otherwise more of the same is expected with a gradual increase in mid and high clouds throughout the day. Highs on Saturday will range from near 40F north to the lower 50s across the south.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Some light precipitation may develop Saturday night as moisture continues to increase. Added low chc pops for r-- with sfc temperatures for now remaining above freezing as increasing clouds prevent much drop off. A deep low will swing a cold front across the area late Monday and early Tuesday next week, accompanied by a few period of rain showers amounting to 1 to 3 tenths of an inch of Liq Equiv precip. There is a low probability for a weak wave of low pressure to develop along the front heading into Tuesday which could add a few to svrl tenths more and even some light accums of snow. Mainly dry weather with just some isolated to scattered snow showers will follow for later Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Widespread VFR will continue into at least Saturday as high pressure maintains control of the local weather pattern. Outlook... Sun...Mainly VFR. Mon...Reduced conditions with rain showers associated with an approaching cold front. Tue...MVFR/IFR with snow showers west and north. MVFR/VFR central and eastern terminals. Wed...MVFR with snow showers west and north. VFR central and eastern terminals.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Main concern is watching water levels rise on Susq downstream on Harrisburg. Marietta gage /MRTP1/ continues its slow rise as ice builds up downstream. Gage above action stage and there is some minor flood concerns in Wrightsville ongoing. The Flood Watch for this area has been extended through the weekend, set to expire Monday afternoon. With milder temperatures there is potential for ice movement, as well as slow ice deterioration/thinning with time. All areas near rivers and streams that have significant ice buildup should monitor water levels closely for the next several days. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for PAZ065-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin AVIATION...La Corte HYDROLOGY...

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