Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 240025 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 825 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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COOLING SFC TEMPS...COMBINED WITH ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW...HAS CAUSED STRATO-CU TO BREAK UP RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL PA. LATEST IR LOOP SUGGESTS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE CLEAR BY AROUND 01Z. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY AIR MASS...AN ACTIVE NW WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAST ACROSS EASTERN PA. THE COLDEST TEMPS BY FAR TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...WHERE APPROACH OF SFC HIGH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME CALM AND TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 20S. WHILE A BIT OF FROST CAN/T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING IS THAT THE WIND WILL KEEP FROST AT BAY. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR THE POCKETS OF FROST AND NORMAL CHILLY AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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THE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED GUSTY WIND...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN PA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AOA 20 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER WEST. THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER QUICKLY FROM THE CHILLY MORNING. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE U50S OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE L60S IN THE VALLEYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE. STILL LOOKING AT SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE POINT FURTHER SOUTH...THUS DID NOT ADD THUNDER. TEMPS LOOKING COOLER NOW. STILL SOME CHC FOR A SHOWER EARLY FRIDAY AM ACROSS WESTERN WARREN CO. FOR SAT...SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE. WENT DRY FOR SUNDAY...FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH...AND RATHER DRY...EVEN WITH SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT...HARD TO SEE MUCH GOING ON. LEFT MONDAY DRY. HOWEVER...DID BRING SHOWERS IN FASTER NOW...MONDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GIVEN THAT MAIN SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE SLOWEST. THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RH/S WILL EASILY MEET CRITERIA.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ042- 051>053-057>059-065-066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE FIRE WEATHER...FITZGERALD

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