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220
FXUS61 KCTP 052251
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
651 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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-Rain tapers to showers and a few thunderstorms to close out
 the first weekend of May
-Warmer and drier on Monday; increasingly unsettled Tue-Fri
-Late week cooling trend continues through Mother`s Day weekend
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The steadier rain has shifted into the northeastern tier of the
state. Showers are expected to develop this afternoon across the
western periphery of the CWA as time moves forward. The CAD
pattern with a moist east southeast upslope flow and ridgetop
fog should reign supreme over the northeastern quadrant of the
CWA with highs stuck in the mid to upper 50s. Meanwhile, it
looks like the western and southwestern portions of the area
will break into the warm sector with cloud breaks allowing temps
to reach the 65-70F range. The warmer temps will fuel enough
CAPE to mention a t-storm mainly along/west of US219 with a MRGL
SWO (1/5) from the SPC still clipping Warren and Somerset
Counties.

Rather mild tonight as a weak cold front presses southeast from
Lake Erie. Some lingering showers are possible especially near
the front. Guidance remains bullish on low clouds and fog
development overnight which may become locally dense and
widespread in spots into early Monday morning. Fcst lows are
+10-15F above climo for early May in the low 50s to near 60F.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A.M. low clouds and fog should give way to some sun by Monday
afternoon especially across the northern half of CPA as high
pressure over the eastern Great Lakes directs drier/lower pwat
air into the region. Following a rather cool and damp weekend,
temperatures are forecast to trend much warmer with fcst maxes
getting back into the 70-80F range. The aforementioned frontal
boundary settling near the MD line will maintain a low chance
of showers/t-storms over the southern tier into Monday night.
Expect some fog again Monday night with lows ranging from the
mid 40s along the NY border to around 60F in the southern tier.

Upper level ridging over PA indicates warmer conditions are
likely Tuesday with highs reaching the upper 70s to near 80F.
However, a warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley and a 500mb
short wave could result in increasing clouds with a PM
shower/tsra, primarily across the western counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled weather will continue into the extended period.
Wednesday looks to be another warm day, with ensemble mean
850mb temps of 16C suggesting max temps well into the 80s
across the Lower Susq Valley.

The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms
continues to be focused on Thursday, with a deepening upstream
trough and sfc low pressure riding up the Ohio Valley and
across the area.

The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east
of the area Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of
the upper trough will likely support scattered diurnal
convection Friday and Saturday, along with a downward trend in
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A moist southeast flow off of the Atlantic Ocean will maintain
stratus over Central PA tonight with widespread IFR/LIFR cigs
and ridgetop fog. Even over the Laurel Highlands, where stratus
broke this afternoon, expect low clouds to redevelop this
evening per latest model guidance.

Improving flying conditions look likely Monday as high pressure
builds into the region from the Grt Lks, causing winds to shift
from southeast to north. Latest forecast soundings and ensemble
prob charts support a transition to MVFR during early afternoon
and potentially VFR by late in the day.

Low pressure lifting up the Ohio Valley could spread showers and
reduced cigs into the southern tier of PA after sunset Monday
evening.

Outlook...

Tue...AM low cigs/showers possible southern tier of PA. Isold
evening tsra impacts possible W Mtns.

Wed...AM low cigs/tsra possible.

Thu...Rain/low cigs likely.

Fri...Showers/low cigs possible, mainly AM.
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&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Bowen
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Evanego
AVIATION...Fitzgerald