Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 252344 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 744 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A sunny and dry start to the week with seasonal temperatures followed by clouds and a periods of rain from Tuesday through Thursday. Fair weather with brisk winds and slightly cooler temperatures will close out the week on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Ridging at the surface and aloft along the east coast will supply the region with fair weather tonight. Southeast winds should become light after sunset near the ridge axis across Eastern PA. However, a tightening gradient between the ridge and low pressure over the Miss Valley will result in gusty winds across the Allegheny Plateau. Gusts up to 40 mph appear possible on the ridgetops of the Alleghenies (above the mainly decoupled BLYR in the valleys) based on model soundings. Clear skies, light wind and relatively dry air should result in efficient radiational cooling across the eastern half of the forecast area, where min temps are likely to dip a bit below NBM guidance. Upstream satellite imagery suggests a bit of cirrus will work into the region late tonight, while model soundings indicate patchy stratus will develop over the eastern edge of the forecast area toward dawn in association with an increasingly moist easterly flow off of the Atlantic.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tuesday will feature a squeeze play between an approaching upper trough over the midwest and marine layer stratus backing in from the Atlantic. Latest model guidance indicates falling heights and surging pwats along the attendant low level jet will support showers arriving over the Allegheny Plateau by early evening. In the east, model soundings indicate maritime stratus is likely to persist through the day over the Susq Valley. In between, the central mountains may manage a partly sunny and dry day. Have leaned a bit cooler than NBM for max temps Tuesday over the eastern counties, due to easterly flow and low clouds. Highs should range from the low to mid 50s over the western half of the forecast area, to the upper 40s over the higher terrain of Sullivan/Schuylkill counties. A broken band of showers is progged to slowly shift east across the region Tuesday night along the axis of the low level jet. The strongest large scale forcing and highest POPs should occur over the NW Mtns Tuesday evening associated with the passage of a lead shortwave over the Eastern Grt Lks. Waning large scale forcing behind this feature will result in lower POPs further east. Ensemble plumes indicate rainfall by Wed AM will be generally less than 0.10 inches. Cloud cover, an active southeast breeze and surging low level moisture should result in a much milder Tues night than recent nights, with lows in 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weakening cold/occluded front is progged to push into the region late Wednesday. Falling heights and surging pwats ahead of this feature will keep the scattered showers in forecast for Wednesday. A few lingering showers are likely to accompany the cold/occluded front, as it slowly pushes east across the region Wed night. All medium range guidance develops an area of low pressure on the stalling front over the southeast coast, then tracks it northeast late this week. The bulk of ensemble members keep this system too far east to affect most of Central PA. However, enough members track it close enough to support a chance of rain over the southeast part of the forecast area Thursday. Plumes indicate if it does rain, substantial amounts of near 1 inch are possible. There is a broad agreement among guidance that fair and seasonable conditions return for Friday, as large scale subsidence overspreads the state behind the exiting upper trough. A weak wave of low pressure tracking across PA could produce a bit of light rain or showers Sat or Sat night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread VFR conds will continue through the day today, as high pressure over southeastern Canada ridges southward into the northeastern United States. Beneath a mostly sunny sky, a southeasterly breeze will develop areawide and become a bit gusty by aftn (15-20 kts). The increasingly moist southeasterly flow will continue into tonight, and models suggest that low clouds may try to work their way westward into the Susq Valley during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. The highest probability for reduced cigs will be over the Lower Susq Valley (LNS/MDT), where ensemble models indicate a 70+% chc of sub-VFR cigs before 12z Tuesday. We may also see LLWS develop over the western highlands, as a 40-50 kt southeasterly low-level jet pushes in from the Ohio Valley. Outlook... Tue...Increasing clouds areawide. Tue night-Wed...Rain/low cigs possible. Thu...Lingering rain and reduced cigs possible S/E. Thu night-Fri...Improving conds. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.