Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 240546 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 146 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The combination of an approaching frontal system and the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy will funnel a plume of deep tropical moisture bringing a steady rain to southern Pennsylvania tonight. Occasional lighter showers are expected across the northwest half of the state through the first half of tonight. The cold front will push east across the region during the morning Saturday, followed by drier and cooler air with comfortable humidity that will last through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Large area of stratiform rain covers much of central PA...with a broken heavier line of showers with perhaps isolated thunder tracking across the Lower Susq River Valley early this morning. Hourly rates are not that impressive over the Laurel Highlands, but will watch rises from earlier rains which caused a good spike at Confluence. Flash Flood Watch remains in effect overnight for the Laurel highlands. Heaviest rainfall will track east of the region by 12z as sfc cold front whisks deep layer moisture to the east rather quickly. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Conditions will improve rapidly Saturday morning as the deep moisture speeds eastward. NHC expects whatever is left of Cindy to be on the MD coast by 8AM so the best of the rain will be over with drier air sweeping in behind the departing low and cold front. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models have trended toward much better agreement with the evolution of the seasonably strong large scale upper trough over the Eastern U.S. A couple of shortwave impulses reflecting weak surface fronts or troughs will provide a limited/mainly diurnal opportunity for widely scattered showers/isolated low- topped thunderstorms Sunday-Tuesday. However, much of the this period will be pleasant and dry with below normal PW supporting low humidity and below normal temperatures relative to late June climatology. The trough is fcst to lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by the middle of the week, followed by a resurgence of the Southeast U.S. upper ridge. Models and ensembles show the ridge breaking down in the west as a trough shifts east across the Rockies into the Plains. Southerly flow increasing ahead of its attendant frontal system should result in an upward/warmer trend in temperatures accompanied by low level moisture/humidity. Expect max/min temps to get back to seasonal levels around midweek and likely reaching above normal levels by next Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Moisture associated with the remnants of TS Cindy now moving rapidly eastward across Pennsylvania. Last band of heavier rain and embedded convection now across the central southern tier counties extending into the Lower Susquehanna region. Radar also depicting scattered shower activity along the cold front which is just about into KBFD at 06z. Rain and front will rapidly slide east across Central Pennsylvania between 06z and 10z. While moist upslope flow will keep lower ceilings in western mountains a bit past 12z, most areas across the central and southern areas will rapidly improve to VFR with the frontal passage. Saturday will feature mainly VFR conditions after any lingering lower ceilings in the west lift by mid morning. A brisk west- northwest wind of 10 to 20 knots can also be expected behind the system during the late morning and afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Sat...Scattered restrictions in AM showers...otherwise becoming VFR. Sun...Mainly VFR. Mon-Tue...Mainly VFR, but with a chance of SHRA/TSRA. Wed...VFR.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KCCX radar will be offline for approximately 4 days starting Saturday, June 24th for technicians to install the first of 4 major service-life extension upgrades. The work on the radar has been scheduled to minimize potential impacts to operations and will be delayed if hazardous weather is forecast. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ024- 025-033-034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Lambert NEAR TERM...DeVoir/La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Jung EQUIPMENT...

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