Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 291936 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 336 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AFTER A VERY DRY APRIL...WE HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A WET PATTERN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS US SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DEEP MOISTURE...AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE AREA...APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER LAKES. OVERALL QPF WILL REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS WILL NOT FALL MORE THAN 3-6 DEGREES OFF TODAY`S HIGHS. SO WHILE WE WILL END UP SOME 10-15 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ACTUALLY BE VERY NEAR NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... FOR SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN BASICALLY PRECIPITATION FREE OVER MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY...BUT I`M NOT OPTIMISTIC FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT SKYCOVER-WISE. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH NO RAIN...WE SHOULD MANAGE TO BE ABOUT 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY ON AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO CENTRAL PA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 48-HOUR FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING 00Z TUESDAY ARE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. THE FCST RAINFALL SHOULD HELP THE AREA RECOVER FROM /60-90+ DAY/ DEFICITS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF -2.00 TO -4.00 INCHES. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS OVER HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA IN ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS WITH A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS FOCUSED OVER BEDFORD COUNTY. A PERIOD OF IMPROVING/DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/ANOMALOUS MEAN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CONUS BUT THERE ARE STILL MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE PIECES OF THE FCST PUZZLE TO RESOLVE. THE GUIDANCE AGREES IN PRINCIPLE THAT AN ELONGATED AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR OR ALONG THE EAST COAST/WRN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER QUESTION MARKS WITH THE DETAILS ALOFT LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY IN THE RAINFALL TIMING AND COVERAGE PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES VS. SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. OUTLOOK... MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. TUE...NO SIG WX. WED...MVFR WITH AREAS OF RAIN. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE

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