Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 172125 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 525 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING LATER ON SUNDAY ONCE AGAIN. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY PERIOD WITH A BRIEF WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. WILL LEAVE THE PATHY VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE TOO WIDE SPREAD BY SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL...INTO THE 40S AT LEAST FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND JUST SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BY QUITE COLD WITH FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COLDEST VALLEYS...AND A FROST ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN PA FOR FRIDAY MORNING ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WARMER AIR AND HIGHER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND ON INCREASING SW FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE AREA /RETREATING TO THE EAST/. AT THE SAME TIME...TROUGH BEGINS TO CARVE INTO ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES PA FOR SUN/MON. THE RESULT WILL BE A PAIR OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAYS SAT-SUN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...AND TAKING A RUN AT 80F IN THE SE. WE/LL ALSO GET A BREAK FROM OUR RUN OF CHILLY OVERNIGHTS AS LOWS REMAIN WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PA SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH DURATION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE WETTEST WITH QPF POTENTIALLY UP TO 0.25...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS LIGHTER AMOUNTS. THE 500 HPA TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT DEEPENS OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MENTION FOR SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF N/W CWA. COOLER AIR ON NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY/S HIGHS ABOUT 8-10F COOLER AND TUESDAY FALLING ANOTHER 5F OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S MON NIGHT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S POSS IN THE NORTHERN MTNS TUE NIGHT. TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK IN. AS FLOW AGAIN TURNS AROUND TO THE SW...REGION SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GRADUAL WARMUP FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSLATE TO A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A MCLEAR SKY AND CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT. LATEST SREF AND NAMPARA SUGGEST THE BEST CHC OF DENSE FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE NW MTNS...INCLUDING KBFD. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF DIP TO IFR VSBYS AT KIPT...KUNV AND KAOO ARND DAWN. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BTWN 13Z-14Z. A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SE THRU THE REGION THU AFTN. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA ACROSS THE N MTNS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS IS HIGH ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA. OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH. SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...ROSS/FITZGERALD

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