Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 300619 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 219 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WIDESPREAD...SHALLOW LOW CLOUDS AND FOG (MAINLY LIGHT) WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. BASED ON THE 0-3 DEG F SFC T/TD SPREAD AT ALL LOCATIONS, TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEG F THROUGH 11Z. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... FOR TODAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN BASICALLY PRECIPITATION FREE OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...I`M NOT OPTIMISTIC FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT SKY COVER-WISE. A 1-2 KFT THICK LAYER OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU SHOULD PERSIST AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH NO RAIN...WE SHOULD MANAGE TO BE ABOUT 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN FRIDAY ON AVERAGE...OR BETWEEN 55-60F. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO CENTRAL PA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 48-HOUR FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING 00Z TUESDAY ARE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. THE FCST RAINFALL SHOULD HELP THE AREA RECOVER FROM /60-90+ DAY/ DEFICITS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF -2.00 TO -4.00 INCHES. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS OVER HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA IN ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS WITH A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS FOCUSED OVER BEDFORD COUNTY. A PERIOD OF IMPROVING/DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/ANOMALOUS MEAN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CONUS BUT THERE ARE STILL MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE PIECES OF THE FCST PUZZLE TO RESOLVE. THE GUIDANCE AGREES IN PRINCIPLE THAT AN ELONGATED AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR OR ALONG THE EAST COAST/WRN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER QUESTION MARKS WITH THE DETAILS ALOFT LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY IN THE RAINFALL TIMING AND COVERAGE PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES VS. SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. OUTLOOK... MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. TUE...NO SIG WX. WED...MVFR WITH AREAS OF RAIN. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

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