Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 241805 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 205 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY BRINGING WET WEATHER TO PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A BEAUTIFUL EARLY SPRING DAY IS IN PROGRESS. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AS THEY TOPPED THE RIDGE AND SPILLED INTO THE EASTERN GR LAKES. THE WIND IS A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE BUT NEARLY UNLIMITED SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO POP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S REGION-WIDE. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN TODAY IS THE WIND...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WIND...A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN PA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM/FRONTAL SYSTEMTHAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST BUT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN UP WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RADIATE AS THE WINDS DROP OFF AND BECOME LIGHT. WE ARE NUDGING TOWARD THE OFFICIAL START OF THE GROWING SEASON OVER CENTRAL AREAS BUT THE WEATHER REALLY HASN`T BEEN CONDUCIVE TO DOING MUCH OUTDOOR GROWING YET. AT THIS TIME I JUST PUT PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST AND DON`T PLAN ON ANY FROST HEADLINES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
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CURRENT TIMING SHOWS RAIN OVERSPREADING MY WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN ABOUT 15-18Z...WITH THE RAIN GENERALLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS QPF IS IN THE .25" - .50" RANGE FROM THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES ERODE THE ELEVATED STABILITY A BIT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A COOL AIR DAMMING SETUP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. I AM LEAVING OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A RUMBLE OR TWO IS HEARD BEFORE THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING FRI NIGHT AS OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A SHRA IN SPOTS. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING OMEGA BLOCK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH UPPER LOWS OVR THE PLAINS AND EAST OF NEW ENG...WHILE PA IS IN A REGION OF RIDGING/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN. HOWEVER...OUR DRY WX IS LIKELY TO COME TO AN END LATER NEXT WEEK...WHEN BULK OF MDL DATA DRAWS UPPER LOW EASTWARD TOWARD PA. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO DRAW A PLUME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD PA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE BEGUN TO RAMP UP POPS TUE INTO WED...WHEN THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO OVERRUN WARM FRONT SOUTH OF PA. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDS TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SUNRISE. A GUSTY NW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. MOST TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN MOVES IN. REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONT. THERE STILL COULD BE LINGERING MVFR IN SHOWERS SATURDAY IN THE WEST AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SWINGS BY. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX. TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER THE EAST. WIND WILL GUST 20-30 MPH. DRY FINE FUELS AND LOW RH/S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ042- 051>053-057>059-065-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE FIRE WEATHER...LA CORTE

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