Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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509 FXUS61 KCTP 100209 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 909 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ALONG WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE SO THE BULK OF THE HEADLINES FROM THE LAURELS EASTWARD HAVE BEEN DROPPED. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR THE LAURELS WHERE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE NEAR TERM WAS TO UPGRADE THE WATCH FOR WARREN COUNTY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...AND TO ERECT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NEIGHBORING MCKEAN WITH INDICATIONS POINTING TO A LONG PERIOD OF FAVORABLE OVER-LAKE FLOW. A LAKE MICHIGAN CONNECTION IS MADE TO DEVELOP UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE/LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE USUAL SNOW BELT AREAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THE AIR WILL DRY OUT AS IT TYPICALLY DOES IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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ON WED...THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING NWRN WARREN COUNTRY AS THE WSW FLOW FAVORS MOST OF THE BANDED SNOWS SLIDING INTO NY STATE. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... *IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND. POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I 80. THE DRIER FLOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL AN END TO MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTED REGIONS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AS THE EVENING CONTINUES...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING. OUTLOOK... WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST. THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE. SUN...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024- 033.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...CERU/RXR

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