Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 201518 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1018 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINING THE GLOOMY SKIES THIS MORNING... WHILE DECAYING MID-UPPER CLOUD FROM UNDERCUTTING SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE IS LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL AREAS. LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. THIS AND LOW DECEMBER SUN ANGLE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST PLACES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... NEXT SHORTWAVE...OVR IOWA AT 09Z...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE PLENTY OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NO PRECIP DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER. STILL...CAN/T RULE OUT A FLURRY IN SPOTS. IN WAKE OF TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT. CONSALL OUTPUT SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S MOST PLACES...TO THE L40S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... INCREASINGLY MOIST SERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK IN GRADIENT BTWN RETREATING HIGH OVR NEW ENG AND WEAK LOW RIDING UP THE E COAST. THE INFLUX OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT...WILL LIKELY YIELD DAMP AND DRIZZLY WX MON NITE THROUGH TUESDAY. MDLS HINT AT PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LOW LVL COLD AIR FOR AN INITIAL PERIOD OF -FZRA/FZDZ OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS MON NITE. MED RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON TIMING/TRACK OF DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC LOW DURING MID WEEK...ALL OF WHICH POINTS TOWARD A MILD AND RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. BLEND OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ARND 1 INCH OF RAIN...FALLING MOSTLY WITH PASSAGE OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS WEDNESDAY. SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR SHOULD PRECEDE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT...PUSHING READINGS INTO THE 50S OVR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NWD INTO SRN CANADA...COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION ON BLUSTERY WEST WINDS. A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVR THE W MTNS...PERHAPS BRINGING A WHITE XMAS TO THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. THE BIGGER STORY MAY BE THE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WED NITE/THURSDAY. DEEPENING SFC LOWS TRACKING THRU THE E GRT LKS TYPICALLY BRING CENTRAL PA SOME OF OUR STRONGEST WINDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS COULD BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA ON CHRISTMAS. THE CHILLIER AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...WITH 00Z ECENS AND GEFS SHOWING THE UPPER TROF QUICKLY LIFTING OUT BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHALLOW STRATOCU DECK REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS. LOWER CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN MTNS...WITH IMPROVING CIGS CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST. CIG RESTRICTIONS IN EXPANDING STRATOCU DECK LIKELY RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS EXPANSIVE AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A THICKENING MID-LVL DECK AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. OUTLOOK... SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...LOW CIGS WITH LGT RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE. BECOMING BREEZY. TUE...LOW CIGS WITH RAIN LIKELY. BREEZY. WED...MILD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...LEADING TO MVFR TO IFR. ALSO...WINDY WITH LLWS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/EVANEGO AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR

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