Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 171913 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 213 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will track northeastward to the Mid Atlantic coast by this evening. An anomalous upper level ridge will build off the east coast next week, with a dying cold front pushing into the state on Wednesday. Abnormally mild conditions will prevail for much of next week. Temperatures will be more typical of early Spring than mid Winter.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Clouds lowering and thickening at mid afternoon with snow breaking out from southwest to northeast across the southern half of centrla PA. Timing slightly ahead of earlier thinking, but overall scenario in good shape with a widespread 2-4" snowfall for most south of I80, 1 to 3 inches north, and locally 5 or 6 possible in a stripe from the South Central Mountains through the Lower Susq. where some 1" per hour snowfall rates are possible late this afternoon through early this evening as jet entrance region enhances the snowfall there for a few hours. All snow expected except for the possible exception of far southern Lancaster and York Counties which may mix with or change to rain later this evening. Expect the accumulating snow to taper off rather quickly in the mid evening hours as low pressure passes off the Delmarva. Lighter orographic snow is likely to linger over the Alleghenies until after midnight with flurries continuing there afterwards into the pre dawn hours.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
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Freshly fallen snow and high pressure will make for a pretty Sunday morning. Enjoy the snow cover while it lasts though because afternoon temperatures will rise to the lower to middle 40s central and south, and even upper 30s north, promoting plenty of melting. Early morning stratus over the north...otherwise mostly sunny skies expected throughout the day.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Made minor changes to the fcst package. Main thing for Sunday night was to lower temperatures...given new guidance and also that some snow will likely result in temperatures falling off quickly after sunset. Took out rain for early Monday morning...except for the far southwest. This area likely to be above freezing. Points further east will see rain later on Monday morning...given time for temperatures to rise above freezing. QPF for Monday and Monday night will be much lighter than the event we had Thursday evening, as the warm front lifts quickly northward. Overall an anomalous upper ridge builds along the east coast next week. Heights rise to 588 across southern PA at 500 mb Tuesday. Much of the area will be well into the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday...but could warm well into the 70s if winds mix down. Slightly cooler later in the week...as a cold front slips southward into the area...as high pressure builds over eastern Canada and New England. Models keep the basic pattern the same...so by next weekend...mild conditions could return. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Snow into far southwestern PA now. VFR conditions will quickly give way to MVFR and IFR conditions by late afternoon and early evening...as snow moves into our area. Conditions should improve across eastern areas shortly after Midnight...as the storm quickly moves out of the area. Some lower clouds and light snow showers could linger across the central and western areas to just after sunrise on Sunday. Overall...not a bad day for Sunday. Lots of sun by late morning. Winds will die down by late aft. Some showers and lower clouds next week...mainly for a brief time Monday...and later on Wednesday...but much of the time will be dry with VFR conditions. Also on the mild side. Outlook... Mon...Restrictions return with some light rain. Tue-Wed...Restrictions likely in rain showers, mainly NW at times...and late Wed elsewhere. Thu...Clearing north. Still a chance of showers north. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EST Sunday for PAZ027-028- 050>053-056>059-063>066. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for PAZ024-033. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for PAZ025-026-034>036. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Martin

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