Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 052249 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 549 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
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STRATUS DECREASING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE EVENING. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD LOCALLY HOLD BKN CIGS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER OVER NRN MCKEAN...POTTER AND TIOGA COUNTIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WINDS FINALLY FALL OFF TO LESS THAN 5KTS IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT - LEADING TO MINS BETWEEN 20 AND 25F. CLOUDS MAY WORK BACK INTO THE FAR NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUT THESE SHOULD ONLY HELP TO HALT THE FALL IN TEMPS. NO PRECIP EXPECTED. THE MINS ARE ACTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL - ESP FOR THE NORTH. DAYLIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN TIER. BUT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS THE BEST WORDING. MAXES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE SOUTH AND SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD AND DRY ZONAL FLOW...WITH ANY MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF THE NEW YORK BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THAT MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS SEEM FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE PATH AND INTENSITY OF THAT STORM...WITH THE BUL OF THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. A SUBSEQUENT LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION WILL BE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE INCREASED QPF...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER AIR FROM THE WESTERN STORM INTERACTS FROM ANY MOISTURE FROM THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM. GIVEN IT IS DAY 5 THERE IS TO MUCH VARIABILITY TO SETTLE ON A SPECIFIC AMOUNT. HOWEVER CURRENT ENSEMBLES SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT- MODERATE PRECIP FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST INTO PA...BRINGING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS EASTERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RAPIDLY DIE OFF ARND SUNSET AS SKIES CLEAR. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON PM-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY MON NIGHT AND TUES. WED...SHSN N/W...MVFR-VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD

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