Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 241141 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 741 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND LAST INTO SATURDAY. A MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TEAMING UP TO EXPAND THE LOW STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH ELEVATIONS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DO SEEM TO BE INCHING EASTWARD JUST EVER SO SLIGHTLY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE DECREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE SFC RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW LASTS INTO THE MORNING. SUNLIGHT AND MIXING SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO MIX AWAY AND THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD MOVE A BIT QUICKER TO THE EAST AS THE SFC LOW AND CIRCULATION FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BY THE END OF THE DAY...THAT LOW SHOULD BE UP TO P.E.I. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE NEARING AND WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE EVER- SHORTENING DAYTIME. THIS WILL DIM THE SUN AFTER THE EXPECTED CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS. MAXES WILL && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SLACKENS THE WIND. THE MINOR WORRY FOR TONIGHT IS THAT TEMPS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST IN THE CENTRAL COS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DRAG SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE N/W OF IPT/UNV/AOO. STILL...THE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL WITH U30S A GOOD BET AND M30S NOT SO PROBABLE DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING AOA THE M30S. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY TO TAILGATE...ALL DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F AND 65F AS 8H TEMPS WILL BE HANGING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL IN THE NW...BUT ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AND GET GUSTY AT AND JUST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT OFF THE GROUND. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO THE 20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG ALMOST ALL THE MED RANGE GUID YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WIDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST JUST A BIT WHILE FLATTENING OUT SOME. SFC HIGH OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG- WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS OVR THE W MTNS CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF BLYR. BOTH KBFD AND KJST ARE UNDER IFR CIGS AT 11Z...BUT DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD CAUSE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BTWN 12Z-14Z. HRRR/RAP OUTPUT ALSO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDS BTWN 12Z-14Z. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDS ACROSS EASTERN PA THIS AM. KAOO WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN AND OUT OF MVFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-13Z. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OUTLOOK... SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...DANGELO AVIATION...FITZGERALD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.