-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 160319
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1119 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build Southeast
 into the region tonight and Tuesday with dry conditions and
 light wind.

-Mild with little to no rainfall expected through at least the
 first half of Tuesday night.

-Cooldown for the midweek period accompanied by periods of
 rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A ridge of sfc high pressure stretching from the Upper Great
Lakes to northern PA this evening was providing clear skies a 5
to 10 kt northerly breeze and low dewpoint air in the upper 20s
to mid 30s in most places.

Some pockets of light frost are likely throughout the Northern
Tier counties of PA between 2 AM - 9 AM Tuesday with mins in the
35-36 deg F range. However, no real concerns as the official
growing season doesn`t begin until May 11 at the earliest (and
as late as May 21st in McKean, Elk and Potter Counties). Lows
elsewhere tonight will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s
respectively from the Central Mtns to the Southern Valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will extend
through the CWA Tuesday, followed by its associated upper ridge
axis moving over the Ohio/PA state line around midnight Tuesday
night. Look for abundant sun, light wind and pleasant temps in
the 60s across the Northern Mtns and low 70s throughout most of
the Central and Southern Valleys. Cirrus, then sct- bkn Altocu
will spread east into the region Tuesday night, to the north of
an approaching warm front that will extend from Central Oh
through Southern PA.

Lows Tuesday night will be roughly 6-8 deg F higher than
overnight mins (tonight) Monday night.

Convection will likely develop along the aforementioned warm
front/quasi-stnry boundary to our south and west, but most of
the convection should stay closer to the boundary away from our
area. A few showers may approach Somerset County late in the day
into the evening.

Closed low pressure will track through the Midwest Tuesday night
and into the Great Lakes for Wednesday and Wednesday night. The
boundary to our south and west will return northeast as a warm
front before likely stalling out over the Laurel Highlands. Warm
and moist air will begin to overrun the boundary while marine
air gets drawn in from the Atlantic over the cool side of the
boundary. This will bring cool conditions to the area along with
periods of rainfall. A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but
any convection should be elevated. The main question will be the
timing of the rainfall. As of now, it appears that most of
Tuesday evening should be dry (perhaps a couple showers near
Somerset County). Overnight Tuesday rain may begin to develop
over western areas before developing for most areas Wednesday
morning/midday.

Fog and drizzle may accompany rainfall Wednesday night, with fog
being locally dense along the ridges.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sfc warm front will slowly lift ENE across the Western Mtns of
PA during the Wed-Thu period as an upper shortwave moves NE to
the Upper Great Lakes and weakens/becomes absorbed by a larger
closed upper low over Southern Manitoba.

More rain is likely across most areas Thursday along with cool
temperatures as the boundary drifts slowly east over the CWA.

Precipitation may diminish late Thursday/Thursday night as high
pressure builds a little closer along with brief upper- level
ridging behind departing low pressure. Fog is possible Thursday
night into Friday morning.

A cold front will most likely pass through Friday before
stalling out to the south for the weekend into early next week.
Showers are possible Friday with the frontal passage. Canadian
high pressure will approach the region for the weekend into
early next week while a series of disturbances track along the
boundary that is stalled to our south. Some frost is possible
during this time, depending on how far south the high can build.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Northwest winds will occasionally gust around 15 to 20 knots
through early this evening. Calm winds overnight could result in
some frost/icing concerns across the northern tier by Tuesday
morning.

Outlook...

Tue...Predominantly VFR.

Tue night...Showers developing late

Wed-Sat...Periods of SHRA with brief low clouds and patchy fog
expected. IFR/subIFR conditions are likely late Wednesday into
Friday. TSRA possible during this time, but overcast
skies/southeast flow should limit thunderstorm potential
somewhat. Possibly a dry period Friday night and early Saturday
morning before more showers affect the airspace.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
AVIATION...Banghoff/Gartner