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821
FXUS61 KCTP 052223
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
623 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will fade overnight as
a less than stellar weekend of weather wraps up. The good news
is that high pressure slowly building eastward from the central
Great Lakes will bring some drying and brightening to northern
and central Pennsylvania by Monday and Tuesday, but the south
will remain on the cloudy side with some showers. The pattern
remains unsettled mid to late week with weather systems bringing
rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday, and Wednesday night
into Thursday, followed by a cooling trend into next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Isold to sct shra with a few rumbles of thunder are ongoing in
the unstable air west of the Alleghenies late this afternoon,
while along and east of the Alleghenies it`s much more stably
stratified. Isold to sct showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
over the Laurels is expected into this evening, with slowly
fading shower activity by late tonight.

Rather mild tonight as a weak cold front presses southeast from
Lake Erie. Good bet for low clouds and fog overnight which may
become locally dense in spots into early Monday morning. Fcst
lows are +10-15F above climo for early May in the low 50s to
near 60F.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A.M. low clouds and fog should give way to some sun by Monday
afternoon especially across the northern half of CPA as high
pressure over the eastern Great Lakes directs drier/lower pwat
air into the region. Following a rather cool and damp weekend,
temperatures are forecast to trend much warmer with fcst maxes
getting back into the 70-80F range. The aforementioned frontal
boundary settling near the MD line will maintain a low chance
of showers/t-storms over the southern tier into Monday night.
Expect some fog again Monday night with lows ranging from the
mid 40s along the NY border to around 60F in the southern tier.

Upper level ridging over PA indicates warmer conditions are
likely Tuesday with highs reaching the upper 70s to near 80F.
However, a warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley and a 500mb
short wave could result in increasing clouds with a PM
shower/tsra, primarily across the western counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled weather will continue into the extended period.
Wednesday looks to be another warm day, with ensemble mean
850mb temps of 16C suggesting max temps well into the 80s
across the Lower Susq Valley.

The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms
continues to be focused on Thursday, with a deepening upstream
trough and sfc low pressure riding up the Ohio Valley and
across the area.

The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east
of the area Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of
the upper trough will likely support scattered diurnal
convection Friday and Saturday, along with a downward trend in
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR to low-end MVFR conds are expected to persist across most
of Central PA this afternoon, as moist southeasterly flow off
of the Atlantic continues. Some modest improvement is possible
along and west of the spine of the Alleghenies, prior to the
development of scattered convection. The best chc brief
improvement is at JST (and possibly BFD), late this aftn into
this evening.

Areas of fog are likely to develop overnight into Monday
morning, with ample low-level moisture and light winds beneath
an inversion. LIFR appears to be probable at most, if not all,
TAF sites by daybreak on Monday.

Central PA`s airfields will be slow to improve Monday morning
under widespread low clouds and fog, but should eventually see
conds rise to at least MVFR during the afternoon hours. The
Lower Susq Valley may be the latest to see improvement on
Monday.

Outlook...

Tue...Patchy AM valley fog possible. Isolated SHRA/TSRA
possible late across S/W PA.

Tues night-Wed...Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA possible, esp
N/W.

Thu...Rain/low cigs expected, with PM TSRA possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Bowen
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Bowen
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Evanego
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Evanego