Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230457 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1257 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT WE ARE LIKELY SO SEE UNTIL OCTOBER. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF OVER THE NW AND THE TEMPS ARE ALREADY DOWN IN THE LOWER 40S. PREVIOUS REASONING LOOKS GOOD WITH THE WIND DROPPING OFF IN MOST AREAS ALLOWING FOR A LATE SPRING FROST/FREEZE UNDER NEARLY PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE 33 TO 36 RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL RIDGE- VALLEY AREAS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW COOP OBSERVERS AND MESO OB SITES COME IN AROUND 20F ACROSS PORTIONS OF MCKEAN...ELK AND POTTER COUNTIES. THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL TEETER AROUND THE 32F MARK AT SUNRISE SATURDAY...BUT MOST OF THE POPULATION THERE SHOULD SEE LOWS OF 33 OR 34F WITH FROST ALMOST A CERTAINTY. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL APPROACH OR DROP BELOW RECORD LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO JUST ESCAPE A RECORD LOW BY 1-3 DEG WOULD BE THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE A LIGHT NW BREEZE COULD PERSIST UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS THERE WILL BE IN THE U30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME RURAL COLD SPOTS COULD SEE PATCHY FROST WITH A SAT MORNING MIN OF 35 OR 36 DEG. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COMMONWEALTH SAT MORNING WILL DRIFT SE TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY SAT EVENING. VERY LOW PWAT AIR OF ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCH AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT WIND. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH...TO AROUND 70F IN THE SOUTH WILL STILL BE A FEW TO SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST LATE SAT NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL AGAIN SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW PLACES IN NRN PENN COULD SEE A PATCHY LIGHT FROST TWD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO WHAT/S IN STORE FOR EARLY SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER A COOL START...SUNDAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A ROBUST WARM- UP THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SIGNALS THIS WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MEMORIAL DAY AS ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW. DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STILL IN THE 40S. HARD TO SEE MUCH CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF PA...IN AREA OF BETTER WARM ADVECTION. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. AT THE SAME TIME...500 MB HEIGHTS COME UP...AS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS. WARM FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE. THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO. OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDING SE FROM THE GRT LKS WILL PROVIDE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-017-018-037-041-042. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-024>028- 033-034-045-046-049>053-058. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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