Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260634 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 234 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A large ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the Mid Atlantic Region through the upcoming weekend, bringing a string of warm and dry days. A weak front will try to push southeast across the state Sunday night into Monday morning and could be accompanied by a shower or thunderstorm. Another period of warmer than normal and dry days will follow for Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Weak pre-frontal trough sliding south and east across the Laurel Highlands and Susq Valley attm, accompanied by a bkn band of mainly light to mdt rain showers. 1 or 2 CGs left in the convection just SE of KJST at 06z, along with ocnl cloud-cloud lightning. Plenty of convective debris mid/high level cloud cover, high sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and light wind across the central two-thirds of the CWA will lead to a warm/muggy night Any remaining showers by daybreak will be confined to far southern PA and the Lower Susq Valley. Elsewhere, expect to see patchy fog and areas of strato cu clouds across the nrn mtns. Temps will struggle to dip into the mid 60s across the nrn mtns...and will settle into the 70-75F range in most other locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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Ridging during the day today will bring warm temperatures aloft to limit threat of convection. Slightly less surface moisture will make things feel more comfortable, though temperatures will once again top out well above average. Sfc high will build over the region tonight, resulting in a fair and mild night. Will have to watch for the possibility of patchy valley fog over the northern mtns late.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Medium range guidance is in good agreement in keeping an anomalous ridge aloft in place over the region into the early days of next week. This will assure we remain warmer than normal with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s, low to mid 90s over southeastern areas, at least into Tuesday. By mid week week, weak troughing rippling through southern Canada and the Great Lakes is made to erode the northern portion of the northeastern ridge a bit, but only to the extent that upper heights and temperatures fall back closer to normal values. The NAEFS and GEFS end up carving out a weak mean trough by the end of the week, but once again heights and temps are forecast to be near seasonal norms so it should remain quite pleasant with the biggest chance being a break in the humidity. Chances for rain will be generally limited to scattered diurnal convection each day, but with warm air aloft the chances should remain small in the absence of well defined forcing. There is a period later Sunday into Monday morning as we come under the northern edge of the subtropical ridge and a weak cold front approaches, which could be the first hints at the development of a more significant MCS upstream. But with such a strong ridge aloft it`s hard to be confident at this range. Main item of difference is the tropical system the ECMWF blows up over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week that the GFS doesn`t do much with at all. Both model suites agree with the northern stream trough mentioned above to be enough to keep any possible tropical developments well south of the local area. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions continue this evening across Central Pennsylvania. Broken convection in far northwest Pennsylvania and Southwest New York slowly making progress towards KBFD. Included mention of VCTS in KBFD from 01z to 03z. Short range models continue and try and carry convection into Central Pa this evening, with activity reaching a KIPT-KUNV-KJST line between 03z and 05z. At this point, have held off mention of SHRA/TSRA in any of the other TAF locations...because of lower confidence /30 POPs/. Will continue to monitor evolution of activity for possible inclusion in TAFs. For Friday, some morning restrictions should give way to VFR conditions. Outlook... Fri...Morning restrictions in fog and lower ceilings, then VFR. Sat...Patchy morning fog...otherwise VFR. Sun...Mainly VFR...but isolated TSRA western 1/3 airspace in the afternoon. Mon-Tue...Isolated/Scattered thunderstorms possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Jung

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