Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 030921 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 521 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FROM THE NORTH TODAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL CREEP NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND COMBINE WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A MOIST LLVL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP LOW CIGS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE INTACT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS MORNING...WHILE HIGHER-BASED STRATO CU AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PRESENT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS /ENOUGH TO GIVE UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN/ WILL DRIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN YORK AND SRN LANCASTER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MEAN SFC-850 MB WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY HELPING TO ADVECT THE THICK SHIELD OF STRATUS/STRATO CU NWWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS HINT AT AN EAST/WEST RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AT LLVLS TRYING TO ADVECT WWD TODAY. THIS WILL MEAN THAT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN CONTRAST TO THE GLOOMY CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN PENN...HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS CENTERED OVER S QUEBEC SHOULD PROVIDE THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF PENN A PARTLY SUNNY AND MILDER DAY THAN TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT...RANGING FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE N MTNS...WHERE SKIES WILL BE PTCLDY...TO THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS THE OVERCAST SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE AT LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. THE SOUTH /AND ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS STILL WELL BLW SEASONAL NORMS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MOIST SERLY FLOW DEEPENS DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS/. RELATIVELY FLAT DIURNAL TEMP CURVE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW THUR MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S NORTH...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS THURS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...BUT COULD TOUCH 70-72F ACROSS WARREN COUNTY IN THE NORTHWEST...WHERE A DOWNSLOPING LLVL SERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS ENOUGH CAPE TO POP UP AN AFTERNOON SHRA OR TSRA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SRN STREAM UPPER TROF /EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH EASTERLY FLOW LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND EXIT EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN AHEAD OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE FREE OF ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AS THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO NEAR 80F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN /COMPLETE WITH A SURGE OF ENHANCED LLVL SWRLY FLOW AND HIGHER PWATS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ANOTHER CHALLENGING AVN FCST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS AND POCKETS OF -DZ AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN AIRSPACE WITH MVFR CIGS IMPINGING ON CENTRAL TAFS UNV/IPT. IR STLT SHOWS M/CLR SKIES NORTH OF IPT-UNV LINE WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED AT BFD. IN GENERAL EXPECT THE LOWEST FLIGHT CATS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN/DAYBREAK HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO LOW VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN. DEVELOPING MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRI...MVFR/VFR. SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL WITH COLD FROPA. SAT...VFR. LOW PCPN RISK SRN AIRFIELDS. SUN...CHC OF P.M TSTMS MAINLY WRN AIRSPACE. && .CLIMATE... MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1 DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991, 1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT AVIATION...STEINBUGL CLIMATE...STEINBUGL

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