Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 180610 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 210 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING LATER ON SUNDAY ONCE AGAIN. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY PERIOD WITH A BRIEF WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED...BUT BUT STILL SEEING SCATTERED STRATOCU FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAINTENANCE IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND OFF THE SOUTH NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE IMPORTANT UPPER TROF DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GLAKS WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TOWARDS DAWN. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL PA...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND JUST SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BY QUITE COLD WITH FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COLDEST VALLEYS...AND A FROST ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN PA FOR FRIDAY MORNING ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WARMER AIR AND HIGHER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND ON INCREASING SW FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE AREA /RETREATING TO THE EAST/. AT THE SAME TIME...TROUGH BEGINS TO CARVE INTO ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES PA FOR SUN/MON. THE RESULT WILL BE A PAIR OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAYS SAT-SUN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...AND TAKING A RUN AT 80F IN THE SE. WE/LL ALSO GET A BREAK FROM OUR RUN OF CHILLY OVERNIGHTS AS LOWS REMAIN WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PA SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH DURATION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE WETTEST WITH QPF POTENTIALLY UP TO 0.25...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS LIGHTER AMOUNTS. THE 500 HPA TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT DEEPENS OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MENTION FOR SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF N/W CWA. COOLER AIR ON NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY/S HIGHS ABOUT 8-10F COOLER AND TUESDAY FALLING ANOTHER 5F OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S MON NIGHT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S POSS IN THE NORTHERN MTNS TUE NIGHT. TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK IN. AS FLOW AGAIN TURNS AROUND TO THE SW...REGION SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GRADUAL WARMUP FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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IR SATELLITE SHOWS BROKEN LAYER OF SC OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. IF THESE CLOUDS PERSIST...IT WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NOTED...CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH TO TOTALLY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS BY EARLY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF INCLUDING MVFR FOG CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS...EXCEPTION IS AT KIPT...WHERE HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICAL LOW STRATUS AT JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET EARLY IN THE MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BURN OFF BTWN 13Z-14Z. A MOISTURE- STARVED COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST THRU THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THEN AGAIN WILL SEE SOME FOG FORMATION THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH. SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. SUN...SLIGHT CHC OF PM TSRA IMPACTS W MTNS. MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...JUNG/FITZGERALD

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