Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 220301 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1101 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY CREATE ENOUGH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT UNTIL THEN THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND SLOW MOVING WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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STILL SOME PESKY SHOWERS OVER NORTHWESTERN PA. LOOK INSIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO THE GIANT MCS OVER INDIANA WHICH WILL MOVE OVER OHIO. BUT HAD TO KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. MOST MODELS SHOW SOME POP CORN AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN PORTIONS OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. BUT WIDELY SCATTERED. ALL THE RAIN...HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF FOG.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THE SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEDGE OF RELATIVELY LOW PW IMPLYING THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO REWORK ITSELF INTO THE REGION. THE SREF AND NAM ARE SLOW TO BRING CAPE OF ANY NOTE BACK INTO THE REGION UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AS FORECAST...THE CAPE ON FRIDAY LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN WE HAD TODAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODELS ARE NOT AS WET AND WANT TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL AND MORE SIGNFICANT RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. KEPT HIGHER POPS IN SOUTH AND WEST AND FOCUSED POPS LATER IN DAY. WITH THE SURGING HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER PW HEADED OUR WAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SREF IS GETTING REALLY OPTIMISTIC FOR RIDGING COMING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER. SREF NOW THINKS OUR PW VALUES DROP TO AT LEAST NORMAL SATURDAY AND THE BOUNDARY BEGINS A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWARD SHIFT. UPDATED FULL LONGER TERM FORECASTS WILL LIKELY TEND FOR A DRIER DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HELP IS ON THE WAY...A BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE NW AND LOWER PW VALUES. PREVIOUS: CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO WORK SWRD THRU CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE APPALACHIANS COULD PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE TO LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD STAY QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE BUILD AND TILT OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW MOVING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR WX THRU MOST OF THE EXTENDED FCST. MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL DRIFT SOUTH LATE THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING FAIR AND BRIGHTER WX TO CENTRAL PA. PTSUNNY SKIES SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN BLW NORMAL. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR SHOULD PERSIST...AS THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID NEXT WEEK THE FCST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO LOWER. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN MED RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. GEFS KEEPS RIDGE AND FAIR WX GOING THRU WED...WHILE ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PUSH SE INTO THE REGION...THE MODELS SEEM TO BE OFF WITH THEIR TIMING. HAVE KEPT A LOW CHC OF TSRA WED INTO THURSDAY. WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS THAT THE COOL TEMPS OF THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS COOL AIR MASS MODIFIES UNDER STILL STRONG AUGUST SUN. GEFS AND EC ENS 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH RETURNING TO ABV NORMAL BY WED.
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&& .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDER AT BFD FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS NOT NEAR OTHER TAF SITES AT THIS POINT. MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY. THUS WENT WITH VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR FRIDAY AFT 16Z. PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD TOWARD PA. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG FOLLOWED BY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. SUN-TUE...AM LOW CIGS PSBL. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL

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