Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 100859 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 359 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LIGHT SNOW WINDING DOWN OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SNOW OVER THE WEST IS STARTING TO FORM A COHERENT MASS BUT THIS MIGHT NOT LAST LONG. THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER KBUF WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY DIMINISH THE SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP BOTH GENERATE AN E-W BAND OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF RTE 6 THIS MORNING BUT IT BECOMES MIGRATORY THRU THE DAY. ONLY THE LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY IS BEST WORDING TODAY. GUSTS COULD BE INTO THE 20S AREA WIDE AND NEAR 30MPH IN THE LAURELS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE SNOW THERE COULD LEAD TO VERY POOR DRIVING. BUT THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL NOT BE TOO TERRIBLE UNTIL LATER TODAY. ABOUT 4-5F IS ALL WE WILL BE ABLE TO ADD TO MAXES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... *IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND. POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. 06Z TAFS SENT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I 80. THE DRIER FLOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL AN END TO MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTED REGIONS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AS THE EVENING CONTINUES...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING. OUTLOOK... WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST. THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE. SUN...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN/RXR

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