Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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794 FXUS61 KCTP 311945 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 345 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth tonight and Wednesday. Increasing moisture will flow northward into Pennsylvania for Thursday and Friday...bringing a better chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms...ahead of another relatively weak cold front. Saturday is expected to be dry again...but wet weather may arrive for the second half of the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Tiny shallow cumulus clouds are scattered about all of central PA at this hour as per GOES East and MODIS imagery. Strong inversion at 675 Mb is squashing vertical development so no expecting any of these to produce anything of consequence. Aside from thin high clouds streaming NEWD from the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys...skies will clear this evening and it will be a comfortable night with a light NE breeze. Lows will vary from around 50F across the northern border...to near 60F in the valleys of Southern PA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... With sfc high pressure tracking north and northeast of region on Wednesday...another mostly sunny...warm and dry day is in store. Comfortable dewpoints in the low 50s up north...and the mid and upper 50s elsewhere...will combine with highs mostly in the lower to middle 80s to bring another stellar day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A few showers could move into the far west by Thursday morning. Cold front moves across the area on Friday...with QPF amounts of .50 inches or less. Not expecting severe weather with this front. Models still showing large scale flow to be less amplified and more zonal in a sense...so front not likely to slow down quite as much for late Friday into Sat. Adjusted ending time some...sooner Friday Night. Still looks like a dry day on Saturday. More showers for Sunday into Monday...as a jet max moves across the area. Starting to see signs that dry intrusion and dynamics could support not only thunder...but even strong storms. Cooler and drier conditions for late Tuesday into Wed. Overall a trend toward a cooler and wetter pattern...as a ridge builds across the west.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conds will prevail through tonight. Some patchy late night and early morning fog is expected with mvfr restrictions. This will burn off by 14z with VFR expected again throughout central PA. OUTLOOK... Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. Thu...A.M. cig reductions poss west. Chance of showers/tstms west. Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with restrictions poss. Sat...Mainly fair/VFR. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. Sun...Reductions in widespread rain and low cigs. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...DeVoir/RXR

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