Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 301722 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 122 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will influence the region through early next week...bringing daily chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of the time will be dry in any one location however. high pressure will build over the northeastern united states by mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
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Radar shows several areas of rainfall over the region. An east-west band along the weak frontal boundary is over the northern tier counties. Some locally heavy rainfall in this boundary with 1-3 inches as it drifts slowly to the northeast this afternoon. There is a band moving across central regions which is producing 1-2 inches based on STA and MRMS data. To the east some scattered showers area ahead of this and another area of rain is to our west still. The air mass is very moist with 1-2SD above normal PW values and dew points in the east are in the 70s. Cores of heavy rain are possible. Along the northern tier counties dew points are still in the low to mid 60s. The HRRR implies these 3 features move slow east (northern band drifts northeast). The HRRRV1 and V2 imply that the stuff in central PA might develop into moderate to severe convection as it moves into southeastern areas. Some runs now show linear and possibly bowing segments this afternoon from Franklin County east. Areas under these bands could see moderate to heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms of course. Put moderate RW and thunder with heavy rain in the grids 17 to 03Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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The NCEP HRRRV2 appears to get 80 percent of the rain out of our area by about 0500 UTC. Rain should taper off west to east this evening and tonight with most of the steady rain to our east a few hours either side of midnight. The larger scale models still have moisture lingering and a slow drying trend. Thus they still produce afternoon convection and nearly all have some QPF. Kept PoPs lower than the model blends as they have a significant wet bias. But heating Sunday will likely produce at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Diminishing POPs into Monday as the upper level trough and cyclonic flow slowly exits off the coast. Big ridge builds over the central US and moves east to Ohio by Friday. This puts us into a drier pattern with NW flow. May see something move over the ridge but then drop to the west and south of PA. Can`t rule out some afternoon clouds popping and maybe an isolated convective cell over the higher terrain but that should be it. Temperatures will start out in the normal range and warm to above normal toward the end of the week. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Current issues for flying are the showers and rain over western areas and the very humid air with haze and fog in the southeastern areas. The showers will move westward over the course of the day. Expect MVFR and spotty IFR with the rain. There will be some embedded thunderstorms so check the radar before takeoff. The rain will not likely impact widespread areas in the east until the afternoon. But the humid air will cause areas of MVFR with haze and fog. Most organized rain ends after midnight and patchy fog will be an issue. Overall better flying weather on Sunday. OUTLOOK... SUN- MON...Morning fog restrictions, then scattered showers and isolated thunder. TUE- WED...Mainly VFR, but with morning fog restrictions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Grumm SHORT TERM...Grumm LONG TERM...Watson/Ross AVIATION...Grumm

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