Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250210 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1010 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRING OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILD DAYS FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND HELP SLACKEN THE WIND AS THE BLYR DECOUPLES UNDER CLEAR-SCATTERED SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF KIPT...TO THE U30S AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE AN EXCELLENT FALL DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES /AND LEAVE RAKING EARLY IN THE DAY/. HOWEVER...A TIGHTENING P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KICK UP A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND BY LATE MORNING AND THE WIND WILL GUST BETWEEN THE UPPER TEENS AND MID 20 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CFRONT. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F /NW MTNS/ AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S /SE/ AS 8H TEMPS WILL BE HOLDING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. THE WEAK...AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...BUT MOST OR ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY FRONT JUST NW OF KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT THOSE CENTRAL PENN LOCATIONS. NW WINDS SHOULD PICK AGAIN AND BECOME GUSTY AT...AND JUST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT AGL. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO THE 20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW JET STREAM PATTERN OVER THE CONTERMINOUS U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GENERAL TROFFINESS OVER THE NERN U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ENHANCED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...TROFFING/FALLING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS IN PA ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG- WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY AT ALL CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. OUTLOOK... SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCT LATE DAY NIGHT TIME SHOWERS ACROSS NRN PENN INVOF KBFD AND NORTH OF KIPT. TUE NIGHT AND WED...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE STATE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT

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