Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280854 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 354 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TODAY. WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FAST WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH UPSTATE NY...BUT HEIGHTS START TO RISE VERY SOON. BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING A NEW 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS. TRANSIENT SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP A WIDESPREAD 3 INCHES FROM OCCURRING. RIDGING WILL HELP TO DECREASE THE SNOW SHOWERS ROLLING THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PA TO FLURRIES OR LESS BY LATE THIS MORNING. COLDEST LLVL AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COLD...NOT RISING OUT OF THE M20S NORTH AND M30S SOUTH. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AND A SHORT WAVE TRAVELING ALONG IT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. MEAGER MOISTURE MIGHT MAKE MEASURABLE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THE FEATURE DRIVING THE SNOW WILL BE VERY FAST-MOVING AND THE TIMING AND HEIGHTS OVERHEAD AT THE TIME OF PASSAGE WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WHERE THE SNOW FALLS. WILL BUMP POPS INTO LIKELIES FOR THE NRN HALF AND JUST A LITTLE MORE WITH CHCS ELSEWHERE TO COVER THE UNCERTAINTIES. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ALMOST NIL ALONG THE MD BORDER...BUT COULD BE 2 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP JUST 5-10F WITH CLOUDS THICKENING UP AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY...AND THE LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY...AND WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND MINORLY MELTING SNOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WHICH COULD BEAR DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN. LIQUID PRECIP DEVELOPS OVER WRN AND NRN PA LATE SAT AND ALMOST CERTAINLY ON SAT NIGHT. THE SFC TEMPS SAT NIGHT COULD LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NRN TIER. WILL JUST ADD IN A MENTION OF IT WITH THIS PKG BUT CALL IT RAIN ELSEWHERE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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BROAD ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE REACHING INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE BACK IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON APPROACH OF A FRONT FOR MONDAY...THOUGH GFS/GEFS CONTINUE TO BE 6 TO MAYBE 12 HRS FASTER WITH FROPA THAN THE ECMWF. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS S CANADA. MDLS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGE FEATURES FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS DOES MAKE A MORE- WET FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ALL MDLS SEEM TO BE LATCHING ONTO THE FROPA NEXT FRI.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CIGS/SHSN AT KJST BTWN 06Z-09Z...CAUSED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LVL TROUGH. CIGS AT KJST HAVE BEEN RUNNING ARND 800 FT EARLY THIS AM...AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS A HEAVIER SHSN WILL LIKELY DROP THE VIS BLW 1SM BTWN 08Z-09Z...WITH A BRIEF DIP BLW 3SM LIKELY AT KAOO BTWN 08Z-09Z. ELSEWHERE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PRODUCE PRIMARILY MVFR CONDS AT KBFD EARLY THIS AM...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AT KMDT/KLNS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING -SHSN OVR THE W MTNS TO DISSIPATE BY LATE AM...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LIKELY BY THIS AFTN. A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SAT AM. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY NORTH. LOW CIGS AT KBFD POSS SAT NIGHT. SUN...AM LOW CIGS/DZ POSS KBFD. MON...LOW CIGS/SHRA POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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