Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
FNUS28 KWNS 212045
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon
across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later
in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a
combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or
unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire
weather concerns.

...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains...
Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather
potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the
Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a
strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region
Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the
central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong
southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a
sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat
will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak
heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach
into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC.

Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous
critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble
solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums
near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the
50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western
TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions
(by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive
loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for
20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire
weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from
far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance
currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge
and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will
see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of
40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as
confidence in finer-scale details improves.

Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather
concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river
valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern
is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a
second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in
surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk
probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system.

..Moore.. 03/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.