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000
FXUS63 KDDC 181500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE 18.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED TWO JET STREAK ACROSS THE CONUS.
ONE 95 KT STREAK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER 115 KT STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS WESTERLY AROUND
60 KT. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE 550 DM CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
OF WASHINGTON STATE. FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -24 DEG
C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FEATURE. DOWNSTREAM, A FEW SHORTWAVE TROFS
WERE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -28 DEG C. AT 700 HPA, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED
AT KDDC. TEMPS WERE FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z FLIGHT...STILL
@ 8 DEG C. SLIGHT COOLING WAS NOTED AT 850 HPA @ KDDC WITH THE OBSERVED
VALUE AT 18 DEG C INSTEAD OF 20 DEG C. AGAIN, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN WAS NOTED IN THE WIND FIELD. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT
WAS NOTED ACROSS COLORADO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED @ 17.9N 90.0W @ 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA,
WRAPPING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A VERY
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. THEREFORE, TODAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING
PAST. A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS IN THE FIVE THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL
FORM AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT UPPER WAVE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST EARLY TODAY. BUT, WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING UP AND BY LATE AFTERNOON A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO MORTON COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT, AND THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GO DOWN. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS HARD TO FORECAST, BUT
THINK THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEST OF A SCOTT
CITY TO LIBERAL LINE, SHOULD GET THE MOST.  AS FAR AS THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE COOLEST THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR SOME TIME LATELY. THE CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH WILL LIMIT DAY TIME HEATING, AND HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S FROM SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION AT LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BUT SHOULD END
UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MINS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE EVENING BEFORE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE AMPLE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND MOVE INTO WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 90S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FORM THE MID 60S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.

A SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS DEPICT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRING WARM AIR
UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LEE
TROUGHING BECOMING PERSISTENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO BE FOUND ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (POPCORN THUNDERSTORMS) COULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING
EACH AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IT ALSO WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME IF THERE WERE A
FEW PLACES THAT REACH OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  63  87  69 /  20  40  40  30
GCK  84  63  90  68 /  20  50  30  20
EHA  83  63  93  68 /  50  60  30  10
LBL  85  64  91  69 /  20  50  30  20
HYS  87  63  85  69 /  20  20  40  30
P28  90  66  86  70 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42