Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241927
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
227 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

...updated short & long...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Forecast concern this period is mainly for convective evolution. Right
now, put more emphasis on the 4 km NAM and the ARW, as the NMMB solution
did not initialize well. The net result is two waves of precipitation
tonight and into tomorrow morning. The first will be across the eastern
zones as an enhanced convergence region pivots eventually out across
the forecast area. There may be some marginally severe winds and hail
with bulk shear of 40 kt and LHP values around 5, which is probably
a bit liberal. Radar mosaic is showing a lull in activity right now,
so there might be not much in this first wave. The second wave comes
through the overnight hours. Satellite WV imagery shows a plume of tropical
moisture advecting into the area with PWATS near the 75th percentile.
The above mentioned CAMs show heavy precipitation through the overnight
with isentropic lift over a sfc boundary that is draped across the area.
So, have made a spatiotemporal adjustments to near term pops to blend
in with the NAM and ARW. The HRRR only runs to 08Z, but does show scattered
convection as well. The main threat with this overnight activity will
be heavy rainfall. The 4 km NAM is the highest with the amounts. Have
about half an inch to an inch across the area with the precip starting
in the SW zones and the spreading northwest as the vortmax swings through
along with dynamic lift.

For tomorrow, this has a temperature bust written over it with upslope
northeasterly winds along and over the front. Weak CAA is expected,
so have gone with a cooler solution, particularly up north. Have a gradient
of low 70s to 80s. For precip, the frontogenetical zone sets up slightly
farther to the east and have the highest evening pops across the SE
and E zones.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The overall synoptic pattern still suggests broad southwesterly flow
aloft with lift along a low level baroclinic zone. The net result is
a continuation of thunderstorms through much of the long term domain.
Temperatures will moderate through the end of the week and into the
weekend, but trend close to normal. There might be cooler spots during
this period depending on diurnal convective evolution. A slightly drier
forecast may evolve next week as the warm sector spreads north along
with weak mid level ridging. The EC still shows a tropical feature
in the Gulf next week. This probably will not impact SW Kansas weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

VFR conditions should prevail for KGCK/KDDC, with KHYS lagging. Winds
will be NE 5-15 kt. Weather disturbance will approach from the SW with
scattered showers and tsra through the overnight period. Prob30 looks
fine for now. Post system MVFR cigs possible in its wake by the morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  75  60  80 /  60  40  50  40
GCK  59  76  59  78 /  60  20  30  40
EHA  58  77  57  80 /  60  30  30  30
LBL  62  77  60  81 /  60  40  40  40
HYS  60  73  58  77 /  60  60  50  50
P28  67  82  64  84 /  60  70  70  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden



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