Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 262032
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
332 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO THIS
EVENING SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AS LOWER/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. ANY DEVELOPING STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OUT
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER ALONG WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGESTS A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. BASED
ON NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDING HODOGRAPHS, INCLUDING FAVORABLE 0-6KM
SHEAR, AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO REINFORCE THE WARMER AIR MASS SETTLED
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
DOWN INTO THE 70S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW UPPER 60S STILL POSSIBLE
IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY
THUNDERSTORMS. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKE MONDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES. SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT
AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE 100F MONDAY AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TURNING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHING FURTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS THEN PROJECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PROVIDING THE FOCUS
FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET
CORE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA,
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO HELP
INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS
IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE STATE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OUT AFTER PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS CREATING AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY EVEN AS AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL UP INTO
THE 90S(F) WITH NEAR 100F STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AFTER IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING
SEVERAL DEGREES DOWN TO AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY
UP INTO THE 80S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES MAY REBOUND A LITTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING BACK A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID TO
LATE EVENING. KGCK, AND LATER KHYS, COULD BE AFFECTED WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73 100  74 100 /  40  10   0  40
GCK  70 100  73  98 /  50  10  10  40
EHA  70 101  72  97 /  50  10  10  40
LBL  72 102  73  98 /  40  10  10  40
HYS  72 100  75  99 /  50  20  10  40
P28  75 100  75 100 /  30  10   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-066-081-
090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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