Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 162252
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
552 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Tonight:

An upper level shortwave trough will move across the region through
the overnight. At the base of the trough, enhanced 300 Kelvin isentropic
lift and 900-700-hPa frontogenesis will lead to some precipitation beginning
tonight and continuing into tomorrow morning. Mesoscale models such
as the 4 km NAM and WRF-NMM/ARW, as well as the operational NAM have
trended with more of a southern track for this precip. As a result,
have adjusted pops with the highest probabilities across the southern
2 rows of counties. Locations along the Oklahoma border stand to see
most of the precip. The thermodynamic profile supports liquid precipitation.
The top down method suggests the slight (and I mean very low) probability
of mixed precipitation across far western Kansas at the tail end of
the event. Confidence though is extremely low on this evolving like
this and most areas should just see rain. Instability/mucape is not
forecast to be significant or even present, so thunderstorms are not
expected. Precipitation amounts look to be several hundredths along
Highway 50, to a few tenths near the Oklahoma border. South-central
Kansas could see the highest amounts with 3 or so tenths not out of
the question. The northern zones will see nothing. Non-freezing minimums
expected through the overnight into the morning hours.

Tomorrow:

Lingering precip and clouds will lead to lower maximums across south-
central Kansas. Some models don`t break out of the 40sF for P28, but
feel this might be a bit overdone. Elsewhere, 50sF are expected. Other
than some precip across the southeastern zones through 18Z, tomorrow
should be mainly dry with clearing skies, cooler temperatures, and upslope
low level winds by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The next chances for measurable rainfall are with 2 storm systems
coming into the Plains, the first one this Easter Weekend, then a
much stronger storm system by Wednesday of next week.

The Easter system will move northeastward from the Desert Southwest
as a subtropical upper level shortwave trough and into the Central
and Southern Plains on Saturday. Lots of high level cloudiness is
forecast on Saturday, and limited moisture return, will keep layer
instability low, so the probability of severe thunderstorms looks
minimal at this time. Will keep the thunderstorms chances of 30 to
40 percent from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. By sunrise
Sunday morning much of the rainfall will be moving east into south
central Kansas.

Then next storm system will move out into the Plains by next
Wednesday as a strong upper level low and attendant shortwave trough
moving eastward out of the Pacific Northwest. The new ECMWF model
shows the system a bit faster than the GFS. Ensemble members of the
GFS are about split between the current slower operational member
and the faster solutions. So lots of uncertainty exists in the timing
of this next storm system into western Kansas. If the slower
solutions are correct, then more moisture will be pulled northward
ahead of the system, and ahead of a dryline, and the storm chances
will increase. If storms develop the chances of severe are looking
increasingly better with good shear in place. If the faster
solutions are correct then the dryline could push out of southwest
and south central Kansas and into central Kansas with minimal
chances for storms across western Kansas.

High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s through the period with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s Friday morning warming into
the 40s and 50s into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Plenty of moisture is in the mid and upper layers of the
atmosphere. High clouds blanketed southwest Kansas this evening,
along with north winds of 18g25kt. A cold front in northern
Oklahoma will stay nearly stationary tonight, as an upper level
trough crosses from west to east. There is a chance for light rain
showers at KGCK after 08Z, and at KDDC after 10Z. The
precipitation may not reach as far north as KHYS. The trough will
pass by 17Z Thursday, when all precip should have moved east of
our TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  53  36  72 /  30  10   0   0
GCK  39  55  36  75 /  30  10   0   0
EHA  40  56  38  76 /  60  50   0   0
LBL  41  55  37  77 /  60  60   0   0
HYS  37  55  36  72 /  10  10   0   0
P28  44  51  39  71 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Burke






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