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000
FXUS63 KDDC 160752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
252 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO.
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A FEW MID TO UPPER 40S(F) ARE OBSERVED NEAR AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWEST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH SUNRISE
THIS MORNING REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE FOG WILL THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
OKLAHOMA MOVING FURTHER EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN COLORADO
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING EJECTING OUT INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD, POTENTIALLY AS FAR AS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH NEBRASKA WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. STILL,
H85 DEWPOINTS UP AROUND 10C, FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1,000 J/KG) WILL EXIST THAT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AS A SHARPENING DRYLINE IN SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO EDGES TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
JUST ABOVE 15C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST ABOVE 25C NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER. WITH DRY LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 90F IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ADVECTING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 50S(F) AND LOWER TO MID 60S(F).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

FRIDAY:

THERE WILL BE NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
TENDENCIES ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A LEE TROF WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. THIS TROF WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ADVECTING IN ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE, 700 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY (POSSIBLY TO 12C!). WITH SUCH WARM
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER, AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY CONVECTION FOR THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR STRATUS EARLY
IN THE MORNING AND HOW LONG THE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS STICKS AROUND.
THE 12Z NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH HIGH 850 HPA RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AND RESULTANT IMPACTS TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DECREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
A BIT, BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE NAM SUGGESTS. HIGHS SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY:

UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROF. THIS RESULTS IN INTENSIFYING LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL COOLING, LIFT, AND CONVERGENCE ALONG AN ASSOCIATED
DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THE 12Z GFS IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE DRYLINE THAN COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF. BOTH MODELS
DO SHOW CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW IN QUESTION AS 12Z NWP IS LAGGING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL JET. BULK SHEAR FROM BOTH ECMWF/GFS IS WEAK (20 KT),
SO NOT SURE IF CONVECTION WILL BE VERY ORGANIZED OR NOT. THERE STILL
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SINCE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER EAST WITH THE DRYLINE
THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE
OF THE DRYLINE... TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY WARM TO HOT AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING DEVELOP. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND:

NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED. IF THE SYNOPTIC WAVE IS SLOWER,
THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS KANSAS. A
DRIER FORECAST IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S OR 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KDDC, KHYS, AND POSSIBLY KGCK GENERALLY AFTER 08Z WITH
THE STRATUS SCATTERING OUT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES AS WELL POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN MVFR VSBYS. ISOLATED IFR VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY MID DAY AT
ALL TAF SITES. A REDEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO TODAY COMBINED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 20KT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  60  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  87  58  89  62 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  90  57  91  60 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  88  58  92  61 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  83  60  85  65 /  10  10  10  10
P28  82  62  85  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON