Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 101907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
107 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

For tonight, a cold front will switch warm northwesterly downslope
winds to the north at 5 to 12 mph. Some low stratus may develop
around the I-70 corridor towards morning with some residual
boundary layer moisture from melting snow, otherwise skies will be
mostly clear. Lows will range from the mid to upper 20s. Slightly
warmer lows will be along the Oklahoma border from 30 to 33
degrees.

For Thursday, dry northwesterly upper level flow prevails. Light and
variable winds become southerly at 5 to 15 mph as cooler surface
high pressure slides east into the Mississippi Valley, and low
pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies. Skies will be partly
cloudy with highs ranging from the mid 60s far west toward the
Colorado border, to around 60 at Dodge, and low to mid 50s east of
Dodge City.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The end-of-week weather, going into the weekend, will continue to be
quite tranquil. Daytime temperatures will continue to be the primary
challenge in the forecast with quite the temperature contrast
expected from extreme southwest KS to central KS. A fairly
substantial arctic airmass will continue to gain real estate across
the north central and northeastern CONUS. A significant jet streak
will rotate around the longwave trough Thursday Night into Friday.
Behind this, fairly robust anticyclogenesis will occur at the
surface across the northern Great Plains. This will spread south
with the edge of the arctic airmass pushing into southwest Kansas.
This will not really be noticed until Saturday, but we will see the
initial push of the colder air Friday in the northeastern portion of
the forecast area (especially around Hays) such that temperatures
will likely plateau in the mid 40s by midday as surface cold air
advection increases from the northeast. This will expand
southwestward across the rest of west central and southwest KS later
in the day Friday, but probably too late in the day to have a
meaningful impact on temperatures, thus highs Friday should be in
the 50s to around 60 for much of southwest KS.

Saturday should be the coldest day as we will be in the colder air
for sure. The coldest of this cold event will certainly be well
displaced to the east of our part of the world, so this glancing
shot of cold air will only drop our temperatures about 7 to 10
degrees from Friday`s temps. In fact, this cold front will basically
just bring our temperatures down to the seasonal average. Another
low amplitude wave will approach western Kansas late weekend, but
with so much downslope momentum tied to this feature, we will not
see any precipitation and temperatures are not expected to be
impacted much at all. Once that system pushes on east, the semi-
persistent ridge out west will build back in supporting another
stretch of warm temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Expect VFR conditions, except for KHYS. Some low stratus is
forecast to develop around 11-13Z as winds become light and some
residual boundary layer moisture is available due to snow melt.
Otherwise, downslope winds prevail at 12-24kt becoming light after
23Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  57  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  61  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  33  65  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  30  62  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  27  49  31  43 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  54  32  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Kruse



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