Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161727
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1127 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Short range models indicate weak upper level ridging shifting
eastward across the Central Plains tonight as an upper level trough
begins to push ashore into the Pacific Northwest. Although a
northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains will intensify
while becoming more westerly tonight, a lack of moisture/instability
will preclude any precip chances across the region through late
Friday afternoon. Much milder temperatures can be expected tonight
under the influence of a prevailing southerly flow across western
Kansas. With moisture advection pushing surface dewpoints well up
into the 40s(F) across all of central Kansas and portions of
southwest Kansas, look for lows only dropping down into the 40s(F)
by early Friday morning with near 50F possible in south central
Kansas where increased cloud cover is likely to develop overnight.
A deepening surface low across the high plains of eastern Colorado
and extreme western Kansas will bring about a more southwest to
westerly downslope flow to southwest Kansas Friday enhancing warm
air advection and pushing H85 temperatures up near 20C. Should see
highs ranging from the mid 70s(F) to the lower/mid 80s(F) Friday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Models on Friday are in decent agreement with a cold front
dropping south across Nebraska during the day as an upper level
trough approaches from the west. Near record to record highs will
be possible ahead of this cold front based on the expected depth
of the mixed layer and the forecast temperatures across southwest
Kansas in the 850mb and 700mb level at 21z Friday and 00z
Saturday. In addition to these warm temperatures it will be windy
and dry which will result in elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions, mainly west of highway 183. The lowest
afternoon relative humidity values are currently expected be south
and southwest of Dodge City.

Friday night the cold front will surge south across western
Kansas. By early Saturday morning the NAM and GFS model soundings
both indicated 40 to 50 knot 900mb to 850mb winds spreading across
western Kansas behind this front along with a tight surface
pressure gradient. Saturday morning will be very windy and cold.
Gusty northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph and lows in the low to mid
30s can be expected Saturday morning. Wind chills of 20 to 25
degrees will also be possible in many locations. Post frontal
precipitation chances Friday night not completely out of the
question at this time but currently any precipitation will be
light and mainly confined to north central Kansas based on the mid
level moisture and lift ahead of an upper level trough that will
cross western Kansas during the overnight hours.

The coldest air behind this cold front early this weekend is
forecast to stay east of western Kansas as the surface high
crosses the central Plains. Across western Kansas this weekend a
westerly down slope flow will return and erode this cold air from
west to east. High temperatures this weekend are currently
expected to warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the upper
50s to near 60 on Sunday.

The warming trend will continue on Monday based on the warming
900mb to 850mb temperatures forecast by the GFS and ECMWF from 00z
Monday to 00z Tuesday. Monday night another cold frontal passage
is still on track to cross western Kansas which will bring another
round of cooler, more seasonal, temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Friday
morning. South winds 20 to 30kt with isolated gusts up to 35kt
will persist through early this afternoon as a strong lee side
trough of low pressure remains anchored across extreme eastern
Colorado. South winds will subside somewhat tonight with the loss
of daytime heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  45  81  39 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  64  42  80  36 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  72  48  80  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  69  45  83  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  61  45  76  39 /   0   0   0  20
P28  61  50  80  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson



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