Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290559
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MADE SPATIOTEMPORAL ADJUSTMENTS OF POPS AND WX GRIDS BASED OFF
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS HRRR GUIDANCE. CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING,
AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT OF EASTWARD PROPAGATION GIVEN UPCOMING
DECREASE IN DIURNAL INDUCED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF FORMIDABLE
COLD POOL GENERATION FOR MCS LONGEVITY. 00Z KDDC RAOB IS
CONSIDERABLY DRIER WITH A LOWER PWAT OF 1.03".

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY FROM JUST
WEST OF TOPEKA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NEAR ANTHONY, KS AND THEN FURTHER
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING
AND SPREADING OUT TODAY JUST EAST OF THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST THROUGH OUR CWA,
AND CROSSED DDC AT 1952Z. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT IN
OUR EASTERN CWA THAN IN THE WEST, BUT STILL THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A CONVERCENCE BOUNDARY TO INITIATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME, I DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS, WITH THE NAM AND
HRRR MODELS BOTH SHOWING AROUND 1200 TO 1400 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS
EVENING, AND THE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 18 TO 22 KNOT RANGE.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWN BURST WINDS
IN THE 50 MPH RANGE. I HAVE MIGRATED THE 50-60 PERCENT POPS FROM
DDC TO PTT FROM 22Z TO 02Z. ALSO, THERE IS AN UPPER POOL OF COLD
AIR COMING IN FROM COLORADO THIS EVENING, AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER OFF THE COLD POOL IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
THE HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN OUR EASTERN 2-TIER OF
COUNTIES, WHERE THE FRONT AND TROUGH ARE, DEW POINTS ARE MUCH
HIGHER IN OUR EAST. I DO NOT EXPECT ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS OF THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WHICH AFFECTED NESS, SCOTT AND
TREGO COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT, THE UPPER COLD POOL WILL HELP TO DE-STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE, AND THE RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS MORNING,
ALONG WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL.  THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
MORE SHOWERY OVERNIGHT VERSUS THE THUNDERSTORM TYPE.  WILL STILL
MENTION THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER, BECAUSE IT
WON`T TAKE MUCH OF AN UPDRAFT TO UPGRADE A SHOWER INTO A
THUNDERSTORM. BY 12Z, MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CONCENTRATED
INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES, AND OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 18Z
FRIDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH MINS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
IN OUR EASTERN CWA FROM HAYS TO MEDICINE LODGE.  FRIDAY`S
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MATCH TODAY`S MAX TEMPS VERY SIMILARLY, AND BE
BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT,
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES PICK UP A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS.
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK, MODEST INSTABILITY
WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND FAVORABLE ENOUGH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE VICINITY OF A
DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS UNLIKELY.

PRECIP CHANCES MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MORE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE IN
THE DAY WHILE A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO MUCH OF KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A
+90KT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPEN WAVE IS PROJECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRE UP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT INTO KANSAS WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE MORE IDEAL NORTHEAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALTHOUGH LESS CERTAIN, THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE
GENERALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL SATURDAY AS
SURFACE PRESSURE BEGINS TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL HELP QUICKLY RETURN A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
THE OVERALL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS
ONLY UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE
LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS LIKELY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. WIDESPREAD 90S(F) ARE LIKELY TO FINISH OUT
THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY IN
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY MID DAY
DROPPING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S(F) TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL AFFECT
THE HAYS TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO HOURS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. POST FRONTAL SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON FRIDY AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  90  68  95 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  59  91  67  95 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  61  91  67  97 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  61  91  68  97 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  61  89  68  93 /  10  10  10  40
P28  66  90  69  95 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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