Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 090618
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1218 AM CST Sun Mar 9 2014
...Updated aviation and synopsis sections...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST SUN MAR 9 2014
A significant positively tilted upper tropospheric jet stream
pattern encompassed much of North America. Ridging was found from
California through the Intermountain West to the northern High
Plains. The positively tilted trough axis extended from southwest
Texas through Oklahoma northeast to the Ohio Valley region. This
pattern resulted in substantial downslope warming across the
northern Great Plains in the lower troposphere, particularly 850mb.
Mean sea level pressure was lowering across much of the northern
Great Plains in response to the intense mid level cross-mountain
flow. A surface ridge was centered from northwest Texas through
eastern Kansas overnight.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
Tonight skies will become clear and an area of high pressure at
the surface will cross western Kansas. At this time the lighter
winds between 09z and 12z Sunday appears to be located across
south central Kansas so will undercut guidance and place cooler
temperatures here early Sunday morning. Have also undercut
guidance where snow reports and radar estimates indicated over 3
inches of snow fell earlier today. Elsewhere based on the
developing southwest wind after midnight will continue to favor
the previous forecast which was also close to the latest MAV/MET.
On Sunday a trough of low pressure at the surface will continue
deepen along the lee of the Rockies. 24 hours 850mb temperature
change indicated a 8 to 10c warmup from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday.
Based on this warming trend expected and that the 850mb
temperatures will range from 10c to near 15c at 00z Monday will
stay close to the previous forecast with highs warming back into
the 60s. Did however lower max temperatures several degrees where
the band of heavier snowfall fell earlier this morning.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
The main forecast problem today is the weather associated with
a strong shortwave trough that will traverse the plains Tuesday.
As this system approaches Tuesday, a surge of warm air will move out
into the plains along and ahead of a developing surface cyclone.
Monday will be a mild day, with highs in the 70s. Temperatures
Tuesday will warm briefly into the 50s and 60s ahead of the front
before falling rapidly by mid to late afternoon. Some precipitation
is expected with this system; but given its progressiveness and
high latitude, southwest Kansas will probably be on the southern
edge of the precipitation that will start out as rain Tuesday
evening and then transition to snow Tuesday night. But given the
intensity of the surface cyclone and pressure rises behind the
front, strong winds easily in excess of wind advisory criteria are
Surface high pressure will build into the southern high plains
Wednesday in the wake of the aforementioned system, with highs
reaching into the lower 50s in the absence of arctic air. A warming
trend can be expected Thursday with highs reaching back into the
lower to mid 60s Thursday and Friday. A weak shortwave trough is
progged to pass across southern Kansas Thursday night; but given
the lack of rich moisture in the presence of weak forcing,
measurable precipitation is not expected. Yet another upper level
system may affect western Kansas by Saturday; but its impact on
western Kansas weather is not known at this point.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST SUN MAR 9 2014
Dry downslope conditions will prevail across western Kansas through
Sunday Night (and beyond) leading to widespread VFR. Light winds
overnight will gradually pick up in strength out of the southwest by
late morning or midday Sunday with average sustained winds of 15 to
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 37 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 64 35 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 65 39 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 65 35 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 66 38 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
P28 61 35 74 41 / 0 0 0 0