Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 160503
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1103 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 915 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

WV imagery indicates a strong closed off upper level low lifting
northeast across the southern Texas Panhandle. Near the surface,
a developing surface low in eastern New Mexico is edging slowly
eastward into extreme west Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

A strong winter storm will continue to impact southwest and central
Kansas tonight through early Monday as short range models indicate a
strong closed off upper level low lifting northeast across the Texas
Panhandle into eastern Kansas during the period. Ample moisture will
continue to wrap up into an associated surface low as it moves up into
eastern Kansas while an attendant frontal boundary provides sufficient
forcing/lift across central and portions of western Kansas. Taking
into consideration recent radar trends, along with vertical sounding
profiles and surface temperatures remaining at or just below freezing,
intermittent freezing rain will continue this evening through early
Monday morning. Based on most short range model QPF signals, another
tenth to a quarter inch of ice accumulation will be possible overnight,
moreso on elevated surfaces with surface temperatures hovering closer
to 30F. Slick roads and highways can still be expected however. A mix
of sleet/snow will be possible across west central and extreme southwest
Kansas toward early Monday morning as colder air begins to filter
southward into the area. Could see snow accumulations upward of 1 to
4 inches by Monday afternoon before precip chances dissipate late
Monday.

As mentioned earlier, look for temperatures to hover in the mid 20s(F)
to near 30F tonight with prevailing overcast skies and intermittent
precipitation. Highs are only expected to reach up into the 30s(F)
Monday afternoon as precip chances slowly dwindle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 133 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

A drier weather pattern can be expected through the end of the
week as medium range models show weak upper level ridging moving
out of the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains during
the period. An extremely weak flow aloft along with drier air in
the lower/mid levels migrating into western Kansas will keep precip
chances at bay across the region through the time period.

A warming trend can be expected through the end of the week as a
westerly, then southwesterly downslope flow set up across western
Kansas drawing warmer air into the area through the period. Well
above normal temperatures are likely by Thursday with highs reaching
the 50s(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Periods of freezing rain and prevailing low level stratus will
result in IFR cigs/vsbys in the vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Monday afternoon. Snow is possible across west central and
extreme southwest Kansas toward daybreak potentially reducing vsbys
to MVFR/IFR at KGCK. Northeasterly winds 10 to 20kt will persist
across western Kansas through daybreak as a surface low lifts
northeast across western Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. Winds will
become more north to northwesterly 10 to 20kt by early Monday
afternoon as the surface low moves further northeast across the
Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  34  26  43 / 100  70  10   0
GCK  28  34  24  42 / 100  70  20   0
EHA  28  36  23  48 / 100  50  20   0
LBL  28  35  26  46 / 100  50  10   0
HYS  28  34  25  41 / 100  90  20   0
P28  31  37  27  47 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson


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