Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 270735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
235 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY SETTING UP A DIFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST OUT OF NORTHERN
KANSAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN RESPONSE, A NEAR
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK
UP INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE
60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOW
FAR NORTHWEST THE MOISTURE REACHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AFFECTING
INSTABILITY PRESENT. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CAPPING WEAKENS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG SUGGESTS THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. EVEN
THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AS MENTIONED EARLIER, FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES, INCLUDING A 30 TO 40KT 0-6KM SHEAR,
SUGGESTS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY AS A PREVAILING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY DEVELOP AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP
INTO THE 80S(F) THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW UPPER 70S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME PLACES DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
WETTER GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S(F) WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KDDC. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  62  81  61 /  60  70  50  60
GCK  82  60  78  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  60  80  56 /  40  50  30  30
LBL  85  61  81  60 /  40  60  40  50
HYS  80  63  77  60 /  60  70  50  60
P28  82  64  80  65 /  60  70  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.