Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 312345
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 90S MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE A 5 TO NEAR 9C WARM UP IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPAWN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE MOST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF DODGE CITY BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND WILL CARRY
VCTS FOR THESE FOR A FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WITH DECREASING WINDS BY 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  89 /  40  10  30  20
GCK  62  86  63  88 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  63  89  63  90 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  65  90  64  91 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  63  88 /  60  10  20  10
P28  71  90  70  93 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD


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