Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. THERE COULD BE A MARGINAL STORM, BUT EVIDENCE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF AGAINST THAN WITH.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TOMORROW MORNING IS FOG. NAM AND BOTH CORES OF
THE WRF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG. HAVE CONTINUED THIS
IN THE GRIDS. FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN, NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTHERN ZONES
COULD BE DENSE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT LOOKING AT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE NEAR THE
SFC. OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW IN
THE 70S. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO PERCENT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOWING THAT KHYS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
AN IMPACTED TERMINAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGCK/KHYS
AND WITH MVFR AT KDDC TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH BR AND REDUCED
VIS. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ON THE AREAL EXTENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  76  54  85 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  51  76  50  84 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  50  76  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  52  76  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  51  73  52  83 /  60   0   0   0
P28  56  77  55  86 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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