Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 021943
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
143 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL PHASE WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN
SITUATED OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THE PAST FEW DAYS AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY RISE A LITTLE OR HOLD STEADY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH EARLIEST
IN THE DAY. LOCATIONS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE FALLING BACK AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE NOT OVERLY MOIST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS DURING THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
MOISTEN UP SOMEWHAT AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVES OVER
THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE RAP, HRRR AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. DENSE FOG ALSO IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THE 0-1KM MEAN WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS ONE MILE HOWEVER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY AFTER
00Z TUESDAY AT GCK AND DDC AND AFTER 03Z AT HYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  45  15  28 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  32  42  13  26 /  10  10  30  20
EHA  34  46  15  26 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  33  50  16  27 /  10  10  30  20
HYS  31  41  12  28 /  10  10  30  10
P28  30  49  18  30 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT


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