Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200750
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
OVERALL, VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ALL PILOTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  50  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  74  49  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  74  51  77  52 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  78  51  77  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  73  46  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
P28  78  52  77  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE


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