National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KDDC 200717
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
217 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A MODEST +70KT UPPER LEVEL JET CORE IS ENTERING THE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA.
NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
STRENGTHENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING. ALONG WITH A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT, THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOES
EXIST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
TIME FRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT ISN`T EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH, ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS
CAPPING ERODES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHT, THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE THAT IS PROJECTED TO ADVANCE EAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORM
THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING QUARTER TO
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY AS A PREVAILING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW ENHANCES WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND THE MID
20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(C) ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 90S(F) TO
NEAR 100F THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FURTHER
WEST. SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FROM THIS MORNING GOING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S(F) TO THE
LOWER 70S(F).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY:

THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COULD BE REACHED AND A 55 KT 250 HPA
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS WARM BUT THINK THIS DESERVES SLIGHT PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE POINTS. OTHERWISE, LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S DEG F.

FRIDAY WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT AND BREEZY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS RH`S SHOULD PLUMMET BELOW
15 PERCENT. WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
COMPARED TO FARTHER EAST, SO THAT MIGHT BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEG F. THERE COULD BE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS RATHER WEAK AND NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC FORCING IS INDICATED BY
THE MODELS. MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEG F.

SATURDAY:

ANOTHER WARM TO HOT DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEG F. LARGELY FOLLOWED THE
ALLBLEND POPS FOR SATURDAY EVENING, WHICH ARE SILENT. THIS IS PROBABLY
DUE TO WARM 700 HPA TEMPERATURES PREVENTING CONVECTION. MINIMUMS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 70S DEG F AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND:

THE ALLBLEND HAS SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE
POINTS SUNDAY. THE ECMWF INDICATES A MINOR WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE
EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY SUMMERY
WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEG F. BEYOND SUNDAY, A 500
HPA RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD FAVOR
A PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST (GENERALLY SPEAKING EXCEPT MAYBE AN ISOLATED
STORM HERE OR THERE). HIGHS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE CENTURY MARK WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S DEG F.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. AS A RESULT,
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15KT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY TO MID
MORNING REACHING 20 TO 35KT ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  70  99  71 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 101  68 101  70 /  10  20  20  10
EHA 100  68  98  66 /  10  20  20  20
LBL 100  68 101  68 /  10  20  20  10
HYS 100  72  99  71 /  10  10  10  10
P28  97  73  97  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON