Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210826 AAB
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
326 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Focus is on the hot conditions and elevated heat indices over the
next couple of days. An impressive 700 mb ridge characterized by
324 dam geopotential heights extends across the Southern Plains
into the lower Ohio Valley. Dew points in the 60s to the Colorado
line and lower 70s dew points in southeast Kansas should create
hazardous heat indices by the afternoon, and the heat advisory
will remain in place today, extending into late Friday much of
the eastern half of the forecast area. Overnight lows are too
expected to be very warm, and even in the mid to upper 70s the
next couple of nights.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016


Relief from the excessive heat will come by the beginning of the
weekend as the upper ridge begins to break down. It is not
impossible to see a storms across the I-70 corridor Friday night,
as weak shortwave energy rotates over the top of the mid level
ridge. The GFS supports a better opportunity for more widespread
thunderstorm chances by Saturday evening/overnight when the mid
levels become much less stable. Temperatures moderate back toward
normal climatological highs and lows in the extended period
(generally speaking next week).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period as a strong upper
high continues to suppress any deep vertical cloud growth later
today, and warm overnight temperatures keep dew point spreads
relatively large. A relatively strong 850 mb level winds supports
wind shear to the surface layer before boundary layer mixing
develops this morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 100  71 101  74 /  10  10  20  20
EHA 100  71 103  73 /  10  10  20  20
LBL 102  72 104  73 /   0   0   0  10
HYS 102  74 104  75 /  10  10  20  20
P28 102  77 104  77 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Friday for
KSZ030-031-044>046-064>066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell


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