Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
216 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN SHIFT CLOSER TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE RISE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO ALLOW
EVEN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC MIXING. HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND
60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERAL MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING, AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. SURFACE
FEATURES SO NOT SUPPORT FOG HOWEVER THE NAM MODEL IS HINGING AT SOME
POTENTIAL  MVFR TYPE CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE, THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
SEE MODERATE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION OF NEBRASKA. THIS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE
AND 850 HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF DIFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC WAVE ARRIVES TUESDAY. A SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FOR MOIST DEEP CONVECTION WITH SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL. THE
69 HOUR NAM RUN SHOWED SOME SEMBLENCE OF A QLCS MONDAY EVENING WITH
THIS PATTERN. BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS WELL AS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE TRANSITIONING MEAN TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL AND MOS
CONSENSUS`S DRIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S AND UPPER  60`S
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW 40S BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AOA060 THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10
TO 12 KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS WILL BE FELT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  60  84  60 /   0   0   0  60
GCK  83  60  84  58 /   0   0  20  70
EHA  81  59  82  56 /   0   0  50  60
LBL  84  60  84  60 /   0   0  20  70
HYS  84  60  84  61 /   0   0  10  70
P28  86  61  86  64 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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