Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211728
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1128 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 111 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

This is a low confidence forecast. Luckily, the impacts should not be
too severe since we are not dealing with a winter storm. The global
models in comparison to the mesoscale models are showing different
solutions. I really don`t want to discount the mesoscale models since
we are in the appropriate time domain of usage for said models. The
net result is pulled the advisory farther to the west to account
for meso solution like the ARW. There is enough baroclinicity
with this system to generate mixed precip during the day and into
the evening. In addition, SW Kansas is on the right entrance
region, so there should be some ageostrophic accelerations as
well. Anyway, precip type is still not completely clear at this
time. It is cold enough right now that the event should start as
snow, however, this is fairly strong WAA by this evening.
Therefore, the precip may change over to freezing rain. There is
one problem, the dendritic layer will eventually become
unsaturated so there might more freezing drizzle than rain. Large
questions like this currently exist. The advisory covers a mixed
precip type. Broadbrushed 1-2" of snow. A tenth of ice is possible
near Med Lodge. The winds with this system are not forecast to be
strong. The ice is probably going to have the most impact. Some
of the meso models do show isolated bands of 2-3". Cannot rule
this out completely since the picture is unclear.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

The weather system will exit the area by noon. The eastern zones
and/or where it snows might see cooler high tomorrow than compared
to areas that miss out on precip entirely. The next chance at
precip is next weekend as another wave moves across the Central
Plains. This second system will be much warmer than the current
system. We will still have to watch out for mixed precip type at
the beginning of the storm system before considerable WAA
strengthens. Another cool down is expected in the wake of
the second system as it exits the area and cool high pressure
prevails.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

VFR ceilings will lower this afternoon across western Kansas with
light snow becoming possible in the Liberal area by 21z. Some
light snow will be possible around the Dodge City and Garden City
areas between 21z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. Finally the Hays
area could see some light snow after 00z Thursday. Periods of
light snow will continue through 03z and then begin to mix with or
even change over to freezing drizzle or freezing rain after 03z
at Dodge City, Liberal and possible even the Hays area. Some
patchy freezing drizzle will even be possible near Garden City
towards 06z. This light precipitation will then continue through
the predawn hour and then taper off early Thursday morning. Ice
accumulations currently expected to be less than 0.05 of an inch
at Dodge City overnight. Only minor (0.01inch) accumulations
expected at the remainder of the TAFS site. Snowfall is tonight
to be one inch or less. As the snow begins to develop between 21z
Wednesday and 03 Thursday he ceilings are expected to fall back
into the low MVFR and IFR category. Winds this afternoon and
overnight will be northeast at 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  17  35  25 /  30  60  20   0
GCK  28  17  37  22 /  20  30  10   0
EHA  28  17  47  26 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  28  17  41  24 /  30  10  10   0
HYS  28  18  31  22 /  20  40  20  10
P28  29  23  34  27 /  50  80  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for KSZ045-046-
064>066-077>081-087>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert


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