Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 081721
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1121 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A very deep trough will continue to mature well to our east...over
the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley on Monday. The strong upper
tropospheric jet core on the backside of this trough will extend
from the Dakotas down into western Kansas with an intense 800-700mb
gradient continuing. This will support surface winds once again in
the 25 to 30 knot range from late morning through the afternoon
hours as boundary layer mixing deepens. The upper tropospheric jet
core will be slow to shift east, although with the loss of
insolation by sunset, surface winds should decrease substantially
back down to the 12 to 15 knot range this evening. The temperature
forecast looks to be in good shape with no airmass change
anticipated. Widespread highs in the 40s are expected (ranging from
48F at Elkhart to around 39 at Hays).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The hemispheric pattern will remain nearly unchanged for much of the
Long Term period this week going into the following weekend. The
deep tropospheric flow will gain more downslope component by
Wednesday and Thursday, which would favor warmer temperatures,
especially across far southwest Kansas. Meanwhile, a rather
substantial arctic airmass will continue across the Upper Midwest
region and Northern Plains and any little perturbation within the
flow will allow some of this air to come southwest into our region.
There is increasing signal that a decent northwest flow jet streak
will travel from Alberta southeastward to Iowa/Missouri/Kansas by
Friday. In its wake, a substantial arctic high would expand its
reach southwestward impacting southwest Kansas. The take home
message is that the upcoming weekend temperature forecast is very
low confidence. In fact, it could be MUCH colder than what the
current forecast indicates, especially if the latest 00z run of the
ECMWF comes to fruition, which is showing temperatures stuck in the
20s all day across portions of west central Kansas. It still looks
like we will be in a dry pattern, precipitation wise through the
entire Long Term period. There is way too much noise in the medium
range numerical weather prediction to even make any speculation on
precipitation at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into the overnight
period with increasing high level clouds. Winds will generally be
from the north northwest this afternoon shifting to more to the
northeast tonight. Windy conditions are expected this afternoon
across the DDC and HYS terminals with gusts up to 40 knots
possible. Winds decrease below 12 knots this evening into the
overnight period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  25  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  44  24  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  48  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  48  26  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  38  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  26  54  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Hovorka_42


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