Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 071712
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

...Update to aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

The 07.12Z 250-hPa map showed that any seasonably strong flow was located
well to the north across Montana southeast to Minnesota with magnitudes
in the 90-100-kt range. Flow across western Kansas was northerly at
25 kt. At 500-hPa, a 593 dm anticyclone extended from southwest Oregon
to Utah. Well the northeast, a broad trough extended across Manitoba
and Ontario. At the lower levels, the KDDC profile was fairly warm and
dry with 850-hPa temp (27C) above the 75th percentile, and the pwat
value (0.94") below the 25th percentile. Winds were pretty weak too
in the layer. At the sfc, a weak frontal boundary was located across
northern Kansas and a sfc trough was located across far southwest Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave exiting the
Northern Rockies and pushing east-southeast into the Northern
Plains today bringing the possibility for precip from the Dakotas
this afternoon southward into Nebraska and potentially portions of
Western Kansas tonight. As the shortwave approaches, an attendant
cold front will push southward into western Kansas this evening.
Low level moisture will continue to pool ahead of the front with
H85 dewpoints in excess of 10C across central and southwest Kansas.
Meanwhile, an upper level jet core associated with the shortwave
is projected to dive southeast across the Dakotas this afternoon
and into Nebraska toward this evening. As a result, thunderstorm
development is likely across Nebraska this afternoon with storms
migrating into northern Kansas tonight. The better chance for
storms is expected across central Kansas in the vicinity of the
I-70 corridor where proximity to the upper level jet will be
closest. Any convection is likely to be high based with the
primary threat being gusty outflow winds.

Very warm temperatures will continue today as a lee side trough
re-establishes itself by this afternoon strengthening a southerly
flow into western Kansas. This will draw slightly warmer air into
the area today pushing highs near to slightly above 100F this
afternoon. Look for lows down into the 60s(F) across west central
Kansas tonight in wake of a cold front pushing through western
Kansas overnight. Lows are still expected in the lower 70s(F)
across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

This extended period will begin with Tuesday night.  A small short
wave in the upper atmosphere will be coming northeast from  the
southwest, with low and mid-level moisture overriding a front which
will be across New Mexico and Oklahoma.  Just slight chances for
storms at first in our southwest corner, followed by a brief period
of 30 percent Pops.  A warm front will then get pushed northeastward
late Tuesday night, and the small 20 percent thunderstorm chances
will advance northeast with the front, in the form of a NW to SE
oriented 20 to 40 mile wide band.  Precip chances will diminish
toward Wednesday morning, as the front out races the upper level
support.  Late Wednesday, a lee side trough will trigger a few
thunderstorms in our west and southwest zones, with another upper
short wave trough traveling southwest through Western Kansas
Wednesday night.  Since plenty of low level moisture will be in
place when the upper trough moves through, 30 to 40 percent chances
for thunderstorms seems appropriate, especially in our eastern zones
Wednesday night.  There could be some good rainfall amounts in the
Hays to St. John areas Wednesday night. Then the upper high pressure
ridge will build in across the western parts of the southern
plains Thursday, and cut off our chances for widespread rain. Each
afternoon a lee side trough will form, and on Friday evening and
night, as well as on both Saturday and Sunday evenings, and there
will be slight chances for thunderstorms in our west. On Monday, a
small upper low pressure wave forms in far western Kansas and
moves across Kansas. This will help aid storms form north of the
I-70 corridor Sunday night, and in our northeast and east zones
Monday.

Wednesday will start out relatively mild, with maximum temperatures
around 90 degrees.  Then the warm air advances back into Western
Kansas.  850 mb temps near 30C in our west Thursday, ranging down to
25C in our east zones will yield highs Thursday in the upper 90s
west to the lower 90s east.  Max Temperatures will be very similar
Friday through Sunday.  When that upper low moves across Monday,
plenty of clouds will be present, and highs will be considerably
lower in the mid to upper 80s.

Minimum temperatures will average in the middle 60s on Thursday and
again on Monday.  For the Friday through Sunday stretch, minimums
will be the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

Convective potential is still the highest at KHYS this evening as
all the convective allowing models are in fair agreement that
there will be no convection farther south. Have included a tempo
group as a result. Other concern is wind shift with fropa late
tonight. NNE-NE winds 15-25 kt possible through overnight pd across
the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 102  70  90  64 /   0  10  10  20
GCK 101  68  90  63 /   0  10  10  20
EHA 100  68  90  64 /   0  10  20  30
LBL 102  70  90  65 /   0  10  20  30
HYS 102  67  86  63 /  30  30  10  10
P28 100  73  93  67 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Sugden





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