Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190539
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1239 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Upper level ridging will persist across the High Plains
through Friday with a weak surface trough in the lee of
the Rockies. A warm front over northern Kansas this
afternoon will continue moving northward. A subtropical plume of
moisture will head north into the Desert Southwest by Saturday and
then curve northeastward into the Southern Rockies and high
plains region by the weekend. A weak cold front is forecast to
move southward into Kansas by the weekend. A minor upper level
disturbance is still advertised to approach western Kansas by
early next week as the mid level flow becomes more zonal across
the Rockies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

With the upper level ridging in place, hot and dry weather
can be expected through Wednesday. The warm front over
northern Kansas will probably be too far north for thunderstorm
activity near I-70 late this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in
the lower 70s with highs Wednesday from 100 to 102. Opted to issue
a heat advisory for Wednesday, even though it`s probable that we
won`t quite reach criteria since the lower levels will be
drier than today. But since advisories are already in place
around us, opted to go ahead and mesh with surrounding offices.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

After several days of temperatures near or slightly over
100 degrees, temperatures will back off a little by next
weekend as the upper level ridge breaks down and low
level moisture increases. There is a chance of thunderstorms
beginning Saturday as the aforementioned surface front
pushes southward into Kansas and mid level moisture arrives
from the desert southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Persistence will continue to be a fairly good forecast method
through the period. VFR category for the foreseeable future in
this summer pattern with prevailing wind direction remaining out
of the south. Late morning through afternoon wind speeds will be
15 to 18 knots sustained with gusts in the mid 20s at times.
Nocturnal winds will be 10 to 12 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72 100  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  71 102  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  99  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  70 101  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  73 102  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
P28  73 100  75 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ030-031-046-066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid


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