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000
FXUS63 KDDC 141144
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
644 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

AS WARM HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY, THIS TUESDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM MONDAY, IS THERE
WILL BE QUITE A STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 15Z.  THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN EVEN MORE WARM AIR FROM NEW MEXICO.  AT
850MB AT 14/00Z, THERE WAS A BATCH OF +28C DEGREE AIR OVER WYOMING,
COLORADO, UTAH, AND NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.  THIS IS ABOUT
+4C TO +5C DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, AT 13/00Z.  SO, I EXPECT
PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF MY FORECAST AREA TO BE
EVEN WARMER BY 1 TO 2 DEGREES THAN MAX TEMPS HIT YESTERDAY. ON
MONDAY, A FEW RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES WERE APPROACHED TO WITHIN 1
TO 2 DEGREES, BUT A QUICK LOOK AT THE RECORDS FOR TODAY SHOWED
RECORDS LEVELS WERE EVEN HIGHER. FOR INSTANCE FOR MAY 14TH, DDC
RECORD IS 97F SET IN 1899 AND 1941; GCK 96 IN 1963; AND P28 97 IN
1899.  SO, EVEN THOUGH A FEW RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SCOTT
CITY AND WAKEENEY AREAS, WILL NOT MENTION RECORDS IN THE ZFP
PRODUCT.  INSTEAD, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED.  LOW
SINGLE DIGIT RH`S WERE REACHED MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND WOULD EXPECT
THE SAME THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH THAT
SHOULD BE FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY,
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH
THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH GUSTING TO
30 MPH, AND WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, RED
FLAG CONDITIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY.  WILL EXPIRE THE RFW AT 01Z,
WHEN WINDS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT, NOT TOO MANY CLOUDS ARE FORESEEN, JUST PERHAPS A FEW HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH IN MOST PLACES. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
NUDGING AT OUR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY, AND WINDS
IN THE WAKEENEY TO SCOTT CITY TO SYRACUSE AREAS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 MPH LATE TONIGHT. I DID NOT CHANGE MINIMUMS
FOR TONIGHT, AND THEY SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER, AND THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE PRATT AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS AS THE LONG TERM
PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE WILL FORM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
EVENING. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, FAR WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND NIGHT. WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A DRYLINE
WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND MAY ALLOW FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO FORM EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
GIVEN ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, A FEW MODELS
SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OR A MCS TO MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA
OR NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE FUTURE
MODELS PLACE THIS CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THERE WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AN EML
BECOMES MORE PREVALENT AND MAY CAP ANY CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, BUT ONCE
AGAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
IS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPINNING INTO THE
ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DRYLINE WILL INTENSIFY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH GIVEN THE INCREASED LARGER SCALE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION TO PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS. MID RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WITH
ENOUGH WIND SHEAR TO PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD BECOME LESS INTENSE DUE TO THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY SHIFTING
WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN
SUGGESTED BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

.TEMPERATURES...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHERE 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS WHERE UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  60  85  60 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  95  58  85  59 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  95  56  85  58 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  94  57  86  60 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  97  59  83  60 /  10  10  20  20
P28  92  63  84  63 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ043>045-062>064-075>078-084>088.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42