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000
FXUS63 KDDC 190503
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1203 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN
ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE REACH WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F),
INCLUDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS. DEWPOINTS ARE AS LOW AS
THE 20S(F) BEHIND THE DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT
SAT MAY 18 2013

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND STRENGTHEN INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL JET CURRENTLY
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A STRONG WARM TONGUE AROUND 800 MB. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EAST OF THIS DRYLINE. VERY
MOIST AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE AT
THE SURFACE, CAPE VALUES OF OVER 4000 J/KG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM FIRST JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. STORMS THEN MOVE INTO
WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60
MPH BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT, MAINLY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DUE TO AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
MID AFTERNOON BUT MOST LIKELY MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AS THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT ON SUNDAY NIGHT, A DRY LINE WILL
BE WEAKENING ACROSS OUT FAR EASTERN CWA, AND THERE WILL BE 20
PERCENT POPS GOING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES AND THE NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR HAYS.  THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
CEASE BY 03Z MONDAY MORNING.  ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ANOTHER 20 TO 30 PERCENT POP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS.  LATE MONDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD EASILY GET
TRIGGERED NORTH OF I-70 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  ONLY
20 PERCENT CHANCES WILL BE THERE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY.  THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME ALONG
THURSDAY.  THAT UPPER WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AND BIG IN NATURE, SO
THURSDAY WILL HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES AND THOSE WILL
EXTEND CLEAR INTO SATURDAY. HARD TO SAY THIS EARLY IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE REALIZED, BUT THAT CAN BE MONITORED MORE CLOSELY
AS THE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.

TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A COOL DOWN FROM SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THROUGH THE
SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. THE COOLEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE
WEDNESDAY, AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED. THEN ON SATURDAY, A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
BE SEASONAL, RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z
THIS MORNING. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TO THE
EAST, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THE VICINITY OF KGCK SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
EAST OF KGCK TOWARD SUNRISE. ANY LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS THEN
EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER BY MID TO LATE MORNING RETURNING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  79  50  75 /  20  30  20  10
GCK  52  77  49  73 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  52  74  49  75 /  20  20  20  10
LBL  52  77  50  77 /  20  30  20  10
HYS  54  77  50  70 /  20  30  20  20
P28  58  82  55  78 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON