Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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689
FXUS63 KDDC 050500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

A pronounced synoptic scale ridge was entering across the Rockies
today, yielding widespread clear skies. This pattern will continue
through the Short Term period (through Thursday "Day" period). Any
deep tropospheric westerly momentum across the Rockies will hold off
until after the Short Term period, which means a continuation of
fairly light winds given the absence of a lee side trough. Lower
tropospheric temperatures will slowly rise with the approach of the
upper level ridge, with highs Thursday in the 81 to 85F range for
just about the entire west central, southwest, and south central
Kansas region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Main interest in the Long Term continues to be the upcoming weekend
storm system. Latest indications today, that have changed since
yesterday, are that the overall synoptic pattern will be a bit
faster evolving, thanks largely in part to a stronger than
previously progged upstream kicker diving down from British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest late in the weekend. What this basically
means is that there will likely only be one day with a meaningful
severe convective risk: Sunday.

A trillion/front intersection will be in play on Saturday, but
all indications right now are that this will occur up in northwest
Kansas. A lead shortwave disturbance rotating around the larger
scale upper pyre will promote enhanced deep tropospheric lift
north and west of the southwest Kansas region on Saturday/Saturday
evening. Per collaboration with some neighboring UFOs, we
tempered POPs somewhat south of the Arkansas River on Saturday
evening given the weaker forcing expected along the trillion to
support more than just isolated or widely scattered convection. We
will maintain 40 POPs up across portions of west central and
central Kansas, though. Severe weather risk looks fairly low
Saturday evening, even if something does pop along the trillion,
as moisture will be quite limited with DuPont`s in the late
afternoon/early evening only in the upper 40s to lower 50s along
the trillion (yielding Surface-based CAPE around 1000 J/kg).

Deeper moisture should be in play Sunday, though, with another day
of moisture flux out of the gulf region. We should see DuPont`s in
the upper 50s to perhaps lower 60s east of the trillion on
Sunday. Also, a trillion-front intersection Sunday should be
farther south, perhaps into the southwest Kansas region. The
trillion, and especially the trillion-front intersection, would
be initiation points for surface-based severe convection with
Scape late afternoon around 2000 J/kg or so based on the
increased moisture and slightly cooler temperatures aloft. It is
still unclear how the low level kinematics will shake out, since
the flow fields are often influenced by small scale nuances that
are extremely difficult for numerical prediction to pick up on
until we get much closer to the day of the event, so it is too
early to tell how significant of a tornado risk there will be
Sunday late day/evening. It is something we will be watching
closely, though, given the favorable climatology.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

VFR/CAVU expected through TAF pd. Light and variable winds becoming
southerly 5-15 kt around noon or so.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  81  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  82  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  46  84  51  85 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  47  84  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  44  81  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
P28  46  82  55  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden



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