Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220833
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Today will be hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the central
and eastern zones to low 100s across far western Kansas. Attention
then turns to this evening. Thunderstorms will be possible once again
with the highest chances across the western zones. CAMs are suggesting
two rounds of convection. The first this evening along and west of
Highway 83. The second round of convection comes late tonight and through
the overnight period from thunderstorms originating from NE Colorado
to NW Kansas. This activity will eventually drift SE if convection
can hold together. The main threat will be outflow winds of 60-70 mph
as the lower atmosphere will be mixed with an inverted v thermo profile.
There could be some hail, although marginal bulk shear and upscale
growth should limit overall larger sizes. For tonight, lows in the
60s are forecast for much of the forecast district.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

There will be bouts of convection in the long term domain. The synoptic
pattern is a west to northwest flow aloft, which is conducive to some
MCSs. The first that is possible is early Friday. Residual cloud cover
on this day may limit overall highs with mainly 70s. Low level upslope
flow in combination with a northwest flow aloft during the weekend
will still keep a favorable synoptic pattern for thunderstorm complexes
to march across the Kansas prairie. Temperatures will be pleasant
over the weekend with the cloud cover and precipitation around - 70s
to lower 80s. Beyond the weekend, only isolated storms for the beginning
of the week are expected along with warmer/moderating temperatures.
The extended period ends with hot temperatures as WAA strengthens ahead
of approaching synoptic disturbances from the northwest and stronger
low level downslope flow. The good news is there might be enough low
level moisture in place to generate some storms across the forecast
district.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

VFR is expected through the TAF pd. There will be some mid level clouds
through the overnight period, but no further flight cat reductions.
Next weather concern is convection for Thursday evening. Will not include
CB/TSRA groups for now as confidence is a bit low. But the two terminals
that stand the most likely at seeing evening convection is at KGCK
and KLBL. Otherwise, S winds tonight becoming SSW tomorrow. A late
evening front will sag southward and will cause winds to be more N/NE
towards end of TAF pd.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  97  64  78 /  60  30  40  30
GCK  67 102  63  78 /  40  40  40  30
EHA  66  99  62  76 /  60  40  40  30
LBL  66  98  64  77 /  60  40  40  30
HYS  70  98  63  77 /  40  40  40  40
P28  69  96  68  82 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden



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