Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 290207
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
907 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

A mention of isolated thunderstorms was expanded across the
western counties this evening to account for rogue storm in Grant
county SW of Ulysses. Frequent lightning is occurring from this
isolated storm. Surface and satellite data clearly show moisture
streaming north through W TX this evening. NAM suggests this
moisture advection will trigger elevated WAA convection favoring
the southern border by 7 AM Sunday. Pop grids show a gradual
increase in coverage overnight, with scattered/chance pops across
the southern zones by sunrise Sunday. Severe weather is not
expected tonight. Strongest storms will produce lightning and
perhaps some small hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

There is a lot of uncertainty in the short term period, as is
typical in the warm season of the year with weak forcing and
significant mesoscale influences on evolution of the
meteorological environment. The upper level cyclone that moved
across northwestern Kansas Friday was centered in extreme
southeast South Dakota. A surface cyclone was nearly vertically
stacked with the upper level cyclone, and a weak cold front
extended from the surface cyclone into northeast Missouri, then
back into central Oklahoma. Weak high pressure with relatively dry
air covered western Kansas this afternoon, and the remainder of
the day should be quiet and seasonably mild. Very cold air aloft
was evident on morning raobs across much of the western United
States with H5 temperatures at or below -15 as far south as OKC
and ABQ. Afternoon thunderstorms developing over the higher
terrain of Colorado can be expected to propagate east and may
survive into southwest Kansas. In addition, some congested cumulus
were evident near a weak cyclone in southeast Colorado, and a few
thunderstorms may form in the weakly convergent flow from
northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado. Since these are
largely driven by diurnal heating, they should dissipate around
sunset.

An upper level trough in the subtropical flow was approaching
Baja California this afternoon and should ripple across the
southwestern United States into eastern New Mexico by Sunday
afternoon. A modest low level jet tonight will advect rich
moisture up the Rio Grande Valley into west Texas and eastern New
Mexico, and moisture will increase above the boundary layer in
southern Kansas Sunday morning. Some mid level frontogenesis will
occur in southwest Kansas as warm H7 air from the higher terrain
spreads east into western Kansas. Considerable mid level
instability will exist, and it is likely that there will be some
high based showers and thunderstorms during the early morning
hours. The extent of the morning convection is a little uncertain;
the NAM is quite aggressive with development of a cluster of
thunderstorms in south central Kansas Sunday morning, while most
other models suggest less coverage. With the really rich moisture
remaining south of the Kansas border, the better chance for any
organized convection seems likely to be well to the south. If a
cluster of thunderstorms does form in Texas and and southern
Oklahoma, outflow may affect destabilization of the atmosphere in
western Kansas for thunderstorm development later in the day
Sunday.

Surface cyclogenesis is likely to occur in southeast Colorado as
the upper level trough approaches Sunday, and a warm front is
likely to extend from the cyclone across southwest Kansas into the
Texas Panhandle Sunday afternoon. The position of this boundary
will be highly dependent on whatever outflow boundaries may exist
from morning convection. The atmosphere will be quite unstable in
the rich moisture in eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle
Sunday afternoon, and a high level jet streak will extend from
southwest Texas into Oklahoma. Thunderstorms probably will
initiate fairly early in the afternoon Sunday near the dryline in
eastern New Mexico and possibly near the old frontal boundary from
southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle. The greatest
instability appears likely to exist in the Texas Panhandle, and
the thunderstorms probably will grow upscale into a forward
propagating MCS late Sunday afternoon and evening. Most of the MCS
probably will remain south of the Kansas border, and highest POPs
were maintained near the southern border of Kansas.

Sunday should be seasonably warm with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s, dependent on thunderstorm outflow. The cluster of
thunderstorms should propagate southeast Sunday night, and Kansas
likely will be quiet Sunday night with lows in the 50s again. The
atmosphere will be slightly warmer in Kansas Monday, but there may
be some stratus Monday morning with an increase in low level
moisture. Confidence in thunderstorm development Monday is not
high, but most of the day should be quiet in Kansas. Convergence
along the lee trough in eastern Colorado should support
thunderstorm development by late afternoon, and these
thunderstorms should move into Kansas during the evening hours and
weaken before midnight.

The next opportunity for widespread thunderstorms will come with
the cold front that will enter northwest Kansas Tuesday morning
and move across most of Kansas during the day Tuesday. Mid and
upper level flow will be relatively weak over the frontal zone,
and hail and high winds appear to be the most likely severe
weather threat.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The extended period of very active severe weather in the central
part of the United States appears to be winding down. A pattern
adjustment supporting upper level ridging in the western part of
the country and troughing in the east is in progress, and several
days of strongly meridional north to northwest flow over the
Central Plains will evolve by mid week.

Although linkage with the tropics is tenuous at best this time of
the year, there may be some effect on circulation from the effect
of a Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) that was over the Maritime
Continent last week but weakened rapidly on the Wheeler-Hendon
diagram. High level velocity potential fields suggest that some
remnant of the MJO may be moving rapidly through the western
hemisphere and should increase tropical convection in the western
Indian Ocean again by the second week of June. The CFS maintains a
higher amplitude MJO signal than most of the other global models
and has done fairly well with MJO events earlier this spring.
Progression of a MJO through the Americas is correlated with
ridging in the western United States, and this may be part of the
reason for development of the fairly persistent ridging over the
Rockies.

A high latitude omega block with an strong anticyclone in western
Alaska appears to be breaking down, and the anticyclone is
expected to retrograde into Siberia by mid week. A vigorous upper
level low near 40N/160W will propagate northeast into the Gulf of
Alaska by Monday night, and warm air advection into the
northwestern United States will result in rising heights and
development of a strong anticyclone in northern California by
Tuesday morning. The upper level low that was off the central
California coast this morning will dig southeast into Arizona by
Monday as ridging evolves in the Pacific Northwest. This upper
level low subsequently will propagate into western Texas Thursday
and reach the central Gulf Coast by Friday.

The upper level low near the British Columbia coast can be
expected to dig into the Northern Plains by Tuesday in response to
rising heights in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. This
will support a cold front that should enter northwest Kansas
Tuesday morning and move across most of Kansas by Tuesday evening.
Cool high pressure with much drier air will build into Kansas
Tuesday night and Wednesday and should persist beneath strongly
meridional flow through Friday. Some low level moisture may try to
return to the High Plains as lee troughing develops Saturday, but
the deep upper level trough along the Gulf Coast will maintain a
surface ridge and offshore flow along the western Gulf through
next weekend. With very limited low level moisture, the potential
for much in the way of thunderstorms in western Kansas will remain
low through the weekend and most likely through the first part of
the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period. SKC expected this
evening once cumulus diminish with loss of heating. Moisture
returns northward overnight through 12z Sunday, as southerly
850 mb winds increase to near 30 kts. BKN/OVC mid layer clouds
will develop starting around 09z, but models are loath to develop
stratus, and kept cig reductions out of the TAFs. NAM model
develops elevated weak convection overnight through Sunday
morning, especially SE of DDC, so included VCSH at that terminal.
After 15z Sun, gusty S/SE winds of 15-25 kts at all TAF sites.
Instability increases Sunday, with scattered convective coverage
expected 18z Sun-00z Mon. Highest confidence for impacts on
aviation is at HYS/DDC where convective TEMPO groups were
included.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  80  59  81 /  20  40  40  30
GCK  56  82  59  82 /  20  30  30  30
EHA  56  84  57  84 /  20  30  30  20
LBL  57  83  58  83 /  20  40  40  20
HYS  56  80  59  81 /  20  30  30  40
P28  61  82  62  81 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Turner


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.