Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 262303
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
603 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Forecast concern for the short term is another possible thunderstorm
complex coming out of Colorado late tonight. Radar mosaic shows some
storms already present across northwest Kansas and into northeast Colorado.
The 12Z 4 km NAM has initialized this well, and this was used as a baseline.
Have the highest pops across the western and northwestern zones. SPC
mesoanalysis only shows about 30 kt of bulk shear and effective shear
is not forecast to change that much through tonight. The net result
is only a marginal threat of severe weather. Heavy rain will pose a
threat and isolated amounts of 2-3" cannot be ruled out. Coverage will
be widely scattered, however. Basin average in the grids is less than
inch. This activity will exit the region through early morning. Highs
tomorrow will be a little warmer than today as the warm sector spreads
northward. Mid 80s are in the forecast. There will be another chance
of evening thunderstorms tomorrow. Chance pops look good for now.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

There will be a chance of thunderstorms each day through much of the
extended period. Slightly drier weather may prevail by mid to late next
week as the ridge retrogrades. Temperatures will be fairly seasonal
through the long term domain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Low level clouds will increase in coverage this evening with
mostly cloudy skies expected overnight. A few thunderstorms will
be possible across the TAF sites after midnight bringing breif
periods of MVFR to IFR conditions. Winds will generally be from
the southeast at less than 8 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  86  66  89 /  30  20  30  30
GCK  60  87  64  89 /  30  30  30  30
EHA  61  86  62  88 /  40  30  30  40
LBL  63  87  64  89 /  40  30  30  30
HYS  62  84  65  88 /  50  20  30  30
P28  67  88  68  90 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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