000
FXUS63 KDDC 211900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...Updated Short/Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy and much warmer Monday, with strong southwest winds.

- Windy and cooler Tuesday, with strong northeast winds.

- Dry weather will continue to prevail through Wednesday.

- Strong south winds expected, with isolated severe
  thunderstorms possible, on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Surface observations midday Sunday revealed cool surface high
pressure in control, with continued below normal tempeatures
and a light and variable wind field. This cool airmass will
continue to modify in the late April sun this afternoon, with
infrared satellite imagery showing the remaining stratus
dissolving. A clear sky is expected by 4 pm, which will allow
temperatures to warm to within a few degrees of 60.

Tonight through sunrise Monday will be several degrees milder
compared to Sunday morning, which saw a light freeze of 31
degrees at both GCK and DDC. Despite a clear sky, warm
advection at 850 mb and increasing south winds to 10-20 mph
through the morning, will keep most locations in the upper 30s.
With the increase in southerly flow around sunrise, wind chills
will be in the chilly 28-32 range for the Monday morning
commute.

All guidance continues to show a dramatically quick warmup
Monday, with 850 mb temperatures showing a net warming of about
+15C over Sunday. The combination of much warmer air at 850 mb,
strong late April sun, efficient mixing, and SWly downslope
will send temperature soaring into the lower 80s for most zones.
With a near ideal warming environment, enhanced by continued
dry topsoils, kept the forecast several degrees warmer than the
warmest guidance. The warmest temperatures of 85-87 are expected
to focus west of US 83. 12z NAM deepens a surface cyclone to
near 998 mb near Baca county Colorado daylight Monday, resulting
in a mslp gradient of about 10 mb across SW KS. These gradients
will easily support sustained SWly winds of 20-30 mph
sustained, with gusts near 40 mph, with the strongest winds
across central/eastern zones, furtherest away from Colorado low
pressure. Used a slightly reduced version of the 90%ile of the
NBM for wind and wind gusts Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Weak low pressure will sag southeast through Monday night,
pulling down the next dry cold front. Model consensus times the
cold front to reach the Oklahoma border around sunrise Tuesday,
with several hours of elevated north winds to follow. Post
frontal north winds Tuesday do not appear overly strong, with
850 mb flow only supporting gusts of 30-35 mph. Cold advection
also appears modest, only trimming 850 mb temperatures 7-8C,
which will knock temperatures down about 10 degrees, in the
lower 70s. Winds will veer NEly and weaken quickly Tuesday
evening.

Elevated to strong southeast winds are expected Wednesday, which
will begin the process of moisture return from the Gulf of
Mexico. Lower 50s dewpoints are expected to arrive in SW KS by
evening. Kept Wednesday`s forecast dry with the absence of
forcing, with continued pleasant afternoon temperatures in the
70s.

The dryline will become firmly established and tighten up during
Thursday, with strong south winds and warmer temperatures.
Models project afternoon temperatures back in the lower to mid
80s, with mid 60s dewpoints probable across eastern zones, east
of the dryline by 7 pm Thursday. As such, moisture and
instability will be in place supportive of strong to severe
convection at peak heating Thursday, with an initial estimate of
dryline position near US 83. Strong shortwave near Las Vegas
7 am Thursday will race northeast, and be over eastern Colorado
late Thursday. 12z global models and most EPS/GEFS members agree
with this timing. Forcing for ascent overspreading the dryline
will encourage at least isolated convective development
Thursday afternoon and evening, in a CAPE/bulk shear environment
supportive of supercells. Day 5 SPC outlook remains justified.
Timing of forcing looks more favorable with the diurnal heating
cycle this time, and if this holds, some storms will likely
produce large hail and damaging winds, if convective inhibition
or the capping inversion can be overcome. A strong low level jet
centered over central Kansas/eastern zones would encourage
supercell organization Thursday evening, and this potential will
need to be monitored. 12z GEFS offers some hope for badly
needed rainfall Thursday night, with probability of measurable
QPF near 90% mainly east of US 83. Given the worsening drought
and the lack of meaningful rainfall for the past 2 months,
prefer to keep pops as conservative as possible, until dryline
position and cap strength can be determined. 12z MEX/NBM pops
are currently near 40%, and this seems plausible for now.

The first shortwave is forecast to wrap up into a strong 548 dm
closed cyclone over Nebraska Friday, which will dryslot SW KS.
Long range models place a sharp dryline near or just west of
Wichita, and it will probably be near Barber county at peak
heating. Kept very low pops for the far southeast/east zones as
a result, but most of SW KS will be dry Friday, with warm
temperatures, much drier air, elevated southwest winds and
elevated wildfire risk Friday afternoon.

Forecast becomes much more interesting next weekend, as a new
longwave trough quickly reloads from the Great Basin to the
Four Corners, with a sloshing dryline setup appearing probable
over the central and southern plains. Climatology and the
synoptic pattern support severe convection on the plains
Saturday and/or Sunday. As always, dryline position and
mesoscale details will be key, but model consensus suggests
the dryline will be in or near the DDC CWA Saturday and/or
Sunday. Warm afternoons in the 80s and strong south winds will
continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Remaining VFR stratus will dissolve rapidly over the next few
hours, with excellent flying weather expected after 21z Sun,
with VFR/SKC and light winds. VFR/SKC will continue through
Monday. After 09z Mon, south winds will begin increasing with
gusts of 20-23 kts. After 15z Mon, strong SW winds will impact
aviation operations at all airports, gusting 30-35 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner