Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 272108
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
308 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL WARMING. A PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE ROCKIES TODAY AS INDICATED BY THE 3 PM TEMPERATURE OF 67F
AT PUEBLO, CO. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE DOWNSLOPE IN ELEVATED
FASHION TONIGHT GIVEN THE VEERED 850MB WINDS, AND THEN MIX TO THE
SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN ENHANCED CIRRIFORM
CLOUDINESS SHOULD NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG SURFACE
WARMING ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO HIGH 60S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY, TO THE 70-73F RANGE
FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD WHERE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

WARM AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY TRANSITIONS TO NEAR
ZONAL ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE FOR SUNDAY. THEN
FOR SUNDAY, A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FORCING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK MILD AND FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S FAR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S.

FOR SUNDAY, STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 AT HAYS TO 50 TO 55 AT DODGE TO GARDEN, AND 55 TO 65 FROM
MEDICINE LODGE TO ELKHART. AFTERNOON TEMPS THEN FALL INTO THE 40S
AND 30S FROM NEAR DODGE AND NORTH. WILL KEEP A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE FORECAST. THE NEW ECMWF HOLDS UP THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS, HOWEVER TRUE ARCTIC BOUNDARIES
USUALLY ARE FASTER THAN MODELS FORECAST. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE
MUCH COLDER AND IN THE TEENS. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE ONLY IN THE LOW 30S NORTH AROUND HAYS TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE STAYING WELL NORTH OF KANSAS, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 50S, AND LOWS
SLOWING WARMING FROM THE TEENS INTO THE 20S. THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY,
HOWEVER THE GFS AT THIS TIME LOOKS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS MAY NOT BE AS
WARM ON TUESDAY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT AND IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS. THE LEE TROUGH WILL
BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN LIGHTER WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  70  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  32  70  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  36  73  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  33  71  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  28  66  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  64  34  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH


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