Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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850
FXUS63 KDDC 260514
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1214 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Higher surface dew points will be gradually streaming north from the
southern Plains today through tomorrow. Both days, high plains
convection will be forming over central Colorado, and feeding into
the instability/CAPE axis into western Kansas late in the day. The
latest HRRR and 4 km NestedNAM drive clusters of convection through
the I-70 corridor from around 2 to 4 UTC this evening, tying into
the northern periphery of the low level moisture advection  wind
field convergence along the trailing edge of a weak northern Plains
cold front. These storms are already forming across northeast
Colorado. Stratus clouds may develop across central Kansas behind
this boundary toward the late overnight hours and the SREF
probabilities indicate, however the boundary will wash out with
rapid warming and a return to light easterly surface winds. Lee side
toughing develops again on Friday, with much higher low level
moisture to work with farther west. The NAM focuses another area of
convection near the best surface convergence over north CO and
driving a meso low across nw KS late Friday evening/night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

High surface pressure will be anchored over the northern Rockies
through the southern Plains.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms may
linger behind the boundary into Saturday morning, however
organized convection opportunity appear to shut down late Saturday
into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

With the exception of a few mid level clouds, VFR conditions will
prevail across western Kansas today. Winds will generally be from
the northeast and breezy over the next couple of hours then shift
to more of a northerly direction by sunrise. Winds will then shift
to the east to southeast by late this afternoon as an area of low
pressure develops across eastern Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  81  59  76 /  20  10  20  20
GCK  55  81  56  75 /  20  20  30  20
EHA  55  83  55  77 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  56  84  57  79 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  57  78  59  73 /  50  10  40  40
P28  60  85  62  82 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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