Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270607
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
107 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

An upper level low will slide into the Central High Plains today
then into the remainder of the Central Plains tonight. This will
allow an area of low pressure at the surface to continue to deepen
across southwest Kansas today then shift into central and eastern
Kansas this evening into the overnight period tonight. An
association warm front will extend east to northeast from this
area of low pressure with a cold front extending to the south.
Winds north of the warm front will generally be from the east to
southeast with winds from the southeast south of this front. Winds
behind the cold front will generally curl from the southwest to
northwest as the day progresses. Another round of strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible across central and south central
Kansas during the late afternoon into evening. Damaging wind and
large hail will be the main concern but an isolated tornado can
not be ruled out. Additional storms also look to form across
eastern Colorado and far western Kansas in the late afternoon but
are not expected to become severe. These storms slide eastward as
the evening and early overnight period progresses. Any storms that
develop should move out of western Kansas by midnight then move
out of the area by day break Saturday morning. Skies look to be
partly cloudy today becoming mostly cloudy this evening into the
early overnight hours. Cloudiness then decreases from west to east
overnight. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the
lower 70s across west central Kansas to lower 80s across south
central Kansas. Lows tonight are expected to range from the upper
40s across the KS/CO border to upper 50s across south central
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

On Saturday ans the first upper trough will lift northeast into
the Mississippi Valley as a westerly down slope flow develops
across the central Rockies. This will result in a surface trough
of low pressure deepening along the lee of the Rockies and warming
in the 900mb to 850mb level. Based on these temperatures at 0z
Sunday will continue to favor highs in the low to possibly mid 80s
near the Colorado border. Further east northeast there will be
more clouds early in the day with even a slight chance for a few
lingering showers across north central Kansas. These clouds will
move east during the afternoon and temperatures here should climb
back to around 80.

On Sunday the surface pressures will continue to fall along the
lee of the Rockies as another upper level trough begins to cross
the southwestern United States. One upper level disturbance is
still forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF to move from the base of
this eastward moving upper level trough and into the Central
Plains late Sunday. This will result in a chance for scattered
thunderstorms for western Kansas late Sunday and Sunday night.

The chance for thunderstorms will continue through at least the
first half of the work week as the southern branch upper level
trough crosses the southwest United States and a northern branch
upper wave moves east towards the northern and central Rockies.

A persistent southeast flow early next week across western Kansas
will keep advecting some low level moisture back into western
Kansas. This will not only favor improving chances for
thunderstorms next week but also the lows early next week are
expected to be unseasonably warm. The latest CRExtendedFcst_Init
may be a little on the cool side but at this time the trend is
there so will not stray far. During the day early next week it
will be warm and muggy with highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

An area of low pressure with associated warm and cold fronts will
be found across western Kansas this morning. This will lead to
easterly winds at the HYS terminal and northwesterly winds at
the GCK terminal. Wind direction at DDC will be difficult to
predict due to the location of the aforementioned features. I
have placed a northwesterly wind direction in the TAFs for now
but may need to be changed if the boundary slides back west. VFR
conditions will prevail across DDC and GCK terminals overnight
with decreasing cloudiness. The KHYS terminal will remain at VFR
until a few hours before sunrise when low stratus or patchy fog
may form causing MVFR conditions. Any fog that does form should
burn off within a few hours of sunrise.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  79  53  82 /  20  30  40  10
GCK  53  75  51  83 /  20  40  40  10
EHA  50  74  51  83 /  10  30  20  10
LBL  52  78  53  83 /  10  30  20  10
HYS  55  78  55  79 /  40  40  40  10
P28  64  82  58  83 /  60  40  40  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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