Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 280652
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
152 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...Updated long...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Any overnight showers and thunderstorms will quickly exit to the east
by 8 am or 9 am. The rest of today will be dry. The old 12Z ARW/NMM
models were showing convection for this evening across far western Kansas,
but the 00Z data solutions have backed off on this. Water vapor imagery
shows a departing synoptic trof with subsidence in its wake. So, will
keep pops aob 10 percent across the forecast area for this afternoon
and evening. A light northerly wind is expected today in the wake of
a weak passing cold front. Highs will range from upper 80s to lower
90s, with the warmest across Barber county. Overnight lows should range
from the upper 50s across west-central Kansas to mid 60s across south-
central Kansas. No precipitation is expected through the overnight period,
with pops trending to zero percent.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A Summer-time pattern continues across southwest Kansas through much
of the long term domain. Highs Saturday should be in the upper 80s to
near 90 degrees again. High pressure will ridge across the central plains
with weak southerly flow developing on the backside of the departing
high be Saturday evening. No precipitation is expected. Highs will moderate
a few degrees Sunday and Monday with widespread 90s. On Tuesday evening,
the superblend has 15-20 percent pops across the northern zones. The
00Z ECMWF is indicating isolated convection developing along the surface
trough with plenty of daytime heating. This looks fine for now given
the long range uncertainty and the low pop values. More 90+ weather
and predominantly dry conditions should close out the rest of the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. The showers and thunderstorms
spreading across the region right now will taper off through the overnight
period as the low level jet weakens. Some of the old models were showing
additional afternoon/evening convection near KGCK tonight. With the
old data and low confidence, will defer to later issuances. Winds be
fairly light and variable then become northerly in wake of weak front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  61  89  62 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  89  60  89  61 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  89  60  89  62 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  90  61  90  62 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  88  60  89  60 /  10   0   0   0
P28  92  64  90  64 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden


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