Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 151805
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
105 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Short range models indicate an embedded H5 vort maxima remaining
locked in across the high plains of eastern Colorado today within a
large scale upper level ridge. This will set up another round of
potential thunderstorms later this afternoon/evening despite an
extremely weak flow aloft. The upper level feature will interact
with a nearly washed out frontal boundary setting the stage for
possible thunderstorms as steep low/mid level lapse rates develop
late this afternoon. Based on the proximity of the upper level
shortwave and increased convergence in the vicinity of the dissipating
frontal boundary, the best chance for precip will be across west
central and portions of southwest Kansas. Enough instability (CAPE
values in excess of 1000 to 1500 J/kg) and shear, albeit weak, will
be present to support marginally strong thunderstorms. Periods of
heavy rainfall may be a factor noting PW values of 1 to 1.5 inches
with a weak steering flow aloft, making localized flooding a
considerable threat.

Very little change to the air mass across the high plains will once
again result in highs pushing only up into the 80s(F) across west
central Kansas to the lower to mid 90s(F) further south and east.
Expect lows mainly down into the 60s(F) tonight with a few lower
70s(F) possible in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

A similar setup from Saturday may lead to isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms again Sunday, particularly as a departing
surface high across the Central Plains brings about a
southeasterly upslope flow to western Kansas. However, without
strong dynamic support aloft, any storms are likely to be more
garden variety with the main threat being localized flooding due
to brief heavy downpours considering the presence of higher PW
values. Drier conditions are then expected to take over by the
middle part of the week as medium range models remain consistent
showing upper level ridging moving out across the Western High
Plains into the Central Plains.

A gradual warming trend will occur through the middle part the week
as the upper level ridge moves across the region while low level
southerlies prevail across western Kansas. Should see highs pushing
well up into the mid to upper 90s(F) Tuesday through the end of the
work week. Highs reaching the century mark is not out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Scattered thunderstorms will affect KGCK and KDDC through the
early evening as an upper level storm system lingers over
eastern Colorado. Given the light pressure gradient, light winds
and VFR conditions can be expected outside of thunderstorms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  67  90  68 /  30  40  20  10
GCK  88  65  89  67 /  40  50  30  20
EHA  87  61  88  65 /  40  50  30  20
LBL  90  67  91  68 /  40  50  30  20
HYS  94  66  91  69 /  10  10  10  30
P28  92  70  92  70 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Finch



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