Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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094
FXUS63 KDDC 180530
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1130 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday and Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Not much to talk about. IR satellite imagery reveals a clear sky
not only across Kansas but also adjoining states. This dry
airmass, combined with ridging initiating aloft, make for a simple
forecast. Expecting few if any clouds through sunset. Atmosphere
warms significantly, with a net change in 850 mb temperatures of
about +9C over Wednesday. This combined with a downslope SW wind
component will push most locations west of US 283 into the lower
60s this afternoon. Expecting 50s for the eastern zones.

Tonight...Atmosphere continues to warm and 850 mb temperatures
climb overnight, as longwave ridging aloft establishes over SW KS.
As such, temperatures through sunrise Friday will be noticeably
milder compared to recent nights, holding mainly in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

A warming trend will persist through the end of the week. Quite a
way to end the week that started out with wind chill advisories, as
Friday and Saturday should bring low 70s across the far southwest
counties and highs in the 60s most elsewhere.  An uptick in high
clouds should develop Saturday in advance of a vigourous, well
advertised winter storm that will move out of the west on Sunday,
spreading snow mainly across Nebraska. The GFS and ECMWF have been
fairly persistent in placing and inch or so of snow across the
northern sections of our forecast area, on the southern periphery of
the main frontogentic snow band. Lots of model runs to go before a
we get a better handle on this storm system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Excellent flying weather through Thursday, with VFR/SKC.
Light SW winds will prevail through the balance of the TAF
period, becoming modestly gusty during peak heating Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  59  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  14  60  23  67 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  24  59  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  18  58  25  68 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  13  55  24  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  16  54  24  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner



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