Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242336
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
536 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Welcome back to winter! Temperatures will struggle this afternoon
in the face of strong NW/N winds and strong cold air advection,
with most locations only adding another 4-5 degrees above current
late morning readings. Stratus and stratocumulus rotating through
SW KS on the backside of the departing cyclone will be slow to
dissipate this afternoon, but ceilings will eventually lift and
scatter out through sunset.

Tonight...Cold, but the question is exactly how cold. In many
respects, radiational cooling will be near optimal tonight, as
Canadian surface high settles directly over SW KS. Winds will
become light and variable overnight, with a dry atmosphere over a
dry ground. Also need to factor in this incoming airmass is being
refrigerated by fresh snowpack to our north. Teens will be common
by sunrise Saturday, and guidance is in the teens and was
accepted. Was going to undercut guidance, but most models show
midlevel clouds increasing overnight from the west. Assuming the
clouds arrive, they would stop temperatures from falling through
the floor. If the clouds fail to materialize, then forecast
updates will be needed to drop low temperatures.

Saturday...Mostly sunny, dry and seasonably chilly. High pressure
over SW KS at sunrise will exit rapidly stage right during the
day, ending up in the Mississippi valley by 6 pm. In response,
winds will quickly become SW and increase a bit to 10-20 mph.
Despite the downslope components, given the cold start and the
recirculated continental polar air, high temperatures will fall
short of normal for most locations Saturday, in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 120 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

This long term period will continue to feature persistently dry
weather for SW Kansas, but precipitation chances are not
completely zero either. No major warm spells or cold invasions are
expected.

Sunday...Mostly cloudy across the southern zones and a bit milder.
Weak shortwave will enter New Mexico during the afternoon, but
forecast is dry through daylight Sunday. Afternoon temperatures
not far from where they should be in late February, in the upper
40s and lower 50s.

This weak shortwave will pass just south of SW KS Sunday night.
There may be a few light rain and/or snow showers across the SE
zones with this feature, but significant precipitation is not
expected.

Monday...Milder, as heights, thickness and 850 mb temperatures
rise modestly. Highs ranging from 55 to 65.

Tuesday...A somewhat stronger elongated shortwave trough arrives
in the Rockies, with SW flow aloft over SW KS. Models show no
appreciable warming ahead of this feature, so temperatures will
remain unchanged from 55 to 65.

Tuesday night...Potentially a bit more interesting. 12z ECMWF
tracks shortwave in the base of the passing long wave trough
south of SW KS, in a position favorable to bring light
precipitation to our region. Indeed, ECMWF generates light snow
bands across SW KS Tuesday night. Other models are less
enthusiastic, as such the blended model pops are modest.
Regardless, this system appears much too progressive (again)
to allow for meaningful precipitation in western Kansas.

Next Wednesday (March 1st) onward...Dry, dry, dry. Medium range
models including 12z ECMWF project quiet uneventful PNA, with dry
NW flow over Kansas. As it stands now, no hope of precipitation
is seen through at least March 6th.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 534 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The mid-level clouds that are currently over Garden City and
Dodge City will diminish between 0-2Z. VFR conditions through the
TAF period thereafter. The North-Northwest winds will continue to
persist, gusting at 30-35 knots, through 1-2Z, with Hays wind
speeds diminishing first. As an acrtic surface high reaches SW
Kansas, winds will become light overnight and into Saturday
morning. A few mid-level clouds are expected after sunrise, with
VFR conditions remaining. SW winds, gusting up to 15-20 mph, will
return as the surface high moves out of our area after 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  17  46  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  15  46  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  17  49  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  17  48  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  16  44  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
P28  19  46  29  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Reynolds


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