Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260734
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
234 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...updated long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

I will change very little to this current forecast, since the
ongoing forecast seems on track and in agreement with the short
term, high definition models.  We have been heating up faster than
yesterday, and I see no reason why we won`t reach the 100 to 104
degree range today.  Dew points in our eastern tier of counties
are in the upper 60s, which will combine with the 103F or so surface
temperatures to give heat indices in the 105F range.  Thus, the NPW
Heat Advisory will continue through 8 PM CDT this evening.  All of
the counties may not reach the 105F Heat Advisory criteria, but they
will come close.  There is a lee side trough moving near the
Colorado border, and if any storms do form this evening, it should
be near the trough axis.  Later, the trough could slide east into
our central CWA, and isolated storms could fire there towards
midnight.   As for low temperatures, we should be just a little
cooler than this morning, and min temps are forecast to be in the
upper 60s near Syracuse, and range to the mid 70s in Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge. I expect winds will not be as brisk as they were
last night, either.

As for Saturday, we will be under the dome of a hot, upper high
pressure dome centered off to our southwest.  A surface trough will
again form in Colorado during Saturday afternoon, and then move into
western Kansas during the evening.  So, at this time, I do not
expect any thunderstorms during Saturday, but just after sundown.
Maximum temps Saturday will reach the 99 to 103F degree range, but
dew points will be slightly lower than today.  Thus, a heat advisory
does not seem imminent Saturday.  Winds will vary from south at 10
to 20 mph in the Medicine Lodge area to the east across our northern
2/3rd of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will sweep through the area either later overnight
Saturday, or very early Sunday morning. The airmass change will
provide relief from the hot temperatures of recent days, with highs
back below normal again (normals highs for late July are in the (low
to mid 90s). The consensus of the raw model output was used for
these forecasts with the bias correction applied. Breezy northeast
winds should diminish by late day Sunday.

Monday might be an environment better characterized by showers and
isolated thunderstorms due to a cloudy mid level and more weakly
unstable layer. Recent NAM runs appear less favorable for convection
as well as the upper ridge becomes better established over the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

A better chance for more robust severe and heavy rain producing
thunderstorms will return in the Tuesday through Wednesday
timeframe as deeper surface and boundary layer moisture returns to
the region. the pattern would still support MCS activity over the
central or southern Plains, moving into western Kansas late in the
day or evening/overnight. The week will be anomalously cool for
late June/ early August as the surface high pressure dominates the
upper midwest and meridional northerly flow aloft maintains cool
flow across the central Plains states.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A small MCS moving slowly east across far west-central Kansas will
likely stay away from HYS, GCK, and DDC terminals through the night
as it begins to slowly decrease in intensity and eventually dissolve
all together overnight. Outside of the convection, winds will remain
light at 6 knots or less with VFR expected to persist. With the
broad surface trough axis remaining the region Saturday, winds will
continue to stay light at less than 10 knots. Additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop late in the afternoon, but
for now will keep them out of the TAF.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 101  71  86  65 /  10  20  10  10
GCK 100  70  85  64 /  20  20  20  20
EHA 101  70  86  66 /  10  20  30  30
LBL 103  72  88  67 /  10  20  30  20
HYS 100  71  88  63 /  10  20  10  10
P28 103  74  88  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid






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