Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 112053
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
353 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014

...Updated for short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

A shortwave trough off the California coast will progress into
southern California tonight and into the southern Rockies by
Saturday afternoon. Ahead of this feature, lee troughing will
intensify over the central high plains tonight and then shift
southward by Saturday. By late Saturday afternoon, a weak trough
line near a thermal low will set up over far southwestern Kansas.
The exact location of this trough will partially determine how
warm it gets. Also, high level cloud cover will overspread
southwest Kansas ahead of the upper level system. Current thinking
is that this cloud will not be thick enough to retard warming all
that much. Temperatures should reach into the lower and even mid
90s in Comanche and southern Clark counties at lower elevations
where downslope southwest winds will mix to the surface in the
afternoon. Only slightly cooler lower to mid 80s can be expected
farther north along interstate 70. The NAM is hinting at some weak
high based convection late Saturday afternoon along the surface
trough, but I oped to keep out rain chances for now given the very
deep and dry boundary layer. Low level moisture will be surging
northward ahead of this system and the western edge of this will
reside from Medicine Lodge to Hays by late Saturday. Current
thinking is that thunderstorms will not occur during daytime hours
due to a strong capping inversion ahead of the dryline.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

Mild and southerly breezy conditions are likely to persist through
the evening and overnight Saturday across central Kansas with any
convection diminishing in the evening hours. A lead shortwave will
rotate out of the southern Rockies early Sunday, ahead of a deeper
cold airmass pushing southward through the Central Plains. A large
surface temperature gradient may exist by early Sunday afternoon as
insolation is allowed to warm up areas from Pratt to Coldwater
longer than in the west central Kansas counties. The 700 mb trough
develops by midday Sunday with a 400 mb potential vorticity anomaly
moving through western Kansas in the Monday or Monday night
timeframe. This should bring a period of rain showers with a better
chance for a change over to snow with minor accumulation possible
in the colder and higher terrain areas (west of highway 83).

In addition to the chance  of snow overnight Sunday and Monday
morning temperatures will likely fall to around freezing or colder
again Tuesday morning, more form radiational cooling of drier air
rather than wet bulbing effects. Surface winds will response to lee
troughing by Tuesday, retuning to southerly and breezy lasting
through mid week. By that time, the models indicate another Northern
Plains front diving into the region by Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

Surface troughing will develop in the lee of the Rockies through
the TAF period, resulting in increasing south winds shortly after
18z, then a drop off after sunset. Winds will become light after 09z
as a front approaches from the northwest. VFR conditions will
prevail in the absence of low level moisture.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

Deep mixing may occur across far southwest Kansas near the Oklahoma
state line Saturday afternoon. With afternoon heating, frequent
wind gusts from the southwest over 25 mph are possible. However, if the
surfce boundary stays farther south, then so would the fire
weather risk. A fire weather watch was issued to cover this
possibility.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  89  52  61 /   0  20  10  40
GCK  54  86  47  57 /   0   0  10  50
EHA  54  87  49  61 /   0   0  10  40
LBL  55  89  49  64 /   0   0  10  40
HYS  54  83  50  55 /   0  30  30  60
P28  56  89  60  71 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening FOR KSZ084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch
FIRE WEATHER...Finch






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