Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280854
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
354 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AND AND HOT AIR
WILL DRIVE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, HOWEVER THE BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD MITIGATE MARGINALLY
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH HE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST  AREA AFTER  THIS AFTERNOON  AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AT THIS TIME ARE
FAVORING WIDELY SCATTERED DISCREET CELLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH
LITTLE OVERALL PROPAGATION. HOWEVER AS THE EVENING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
UPSLOPE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONVECTION  ROLLS OUT OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AN NORTHEAST  NEW MEXICO INTO9
THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLES AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE EASTERLY
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PROMOTE
THUNDERSTOSM CHANCES IN THE FAR WEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANMT BREAK
FROM AT LEAST LOW CHACNES OF CONVECTION COMES AROUND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER HIGHS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY, GENERALLY IN THE
80S, EVEN LOW 80S IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES . NOT MUCH OF A REBOUND
TOWARD HOTTER TEMPERATURES SEEMS TO OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH
FORECAST TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST
HIGHS OF MID 90S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WAS PREVIOUSLY NOTED, THE CONVECTION
CHANCES AR MINIMAL OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE LARGE UPPPER VORTEX
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN CANADA
DURING THIS PERIOD, ALLOWING A SLIGHT RETROGRADE OF THE UPPER HIGH
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A
MORE BROAD NORTHWEST SUBSIDENT FLIW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

PREVAILING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR LATE SAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF IMPACTING ANY
OR ALL OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. IN THE MEANTIME, VFR CONDITIONS  WILL
PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  68  86  64 /  20  60  50  40
GCK  95  65  82  63 /  10  60  50  30
EHA  95  66  79  65 /  20  70  50  40
LBL  98  68  83  66 /  30  70  50  40
HYS  95  67  86  62 /  10  30  20  20
P28 100  74  89  67 /  20  60  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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