Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
000
FXUS63 KDDC 180408
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1108 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A hard freeze is expected Monday morning, with temperatures in
the upper teens and lower 20s.
- Much warmer Tuesday.
- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Wednesday morning.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, favoring areas south
and east of Dodge City.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Midday infrared satellite imagery depicted few if any clouds
over SW KS, as a very dry, subsident regime continued. North
winds will remain elevated with a northerly pressure gradient
through afternoon, with gusts in the 25-30 mph range, strongest
near Hays. Despite the north wind, cold advection is still
modest, and with full sunshine, 5 pm temperatures will be near
60, and near normal for mid March. Northeast counties closest to
the approaching cool surface high will remain in the 50s.
A widespread hard freeze is expected tonight through sunrise
Monday. Strong high pressure over the Canada prairies 7 pm
Sunday will race southward tonight, centered over Nebraska at 7
am Monday, and SW KS midday Monday. Cold advection increases
tonight, with models in agreement with 850 mb temperatures
falling to near -3 to -4C at DDC, and as cold as -7C near HYS
Monday morning. A clear or mostly clear sky, dry air and ground,
and diminishing winds will combine to create a near ideal
radiational cooling environment. Much of our coldest northwest
zones froze harder than expected last night (mid 20s), so that
was motivation to follow or undercut the coldest guidance Monday
morning. Lower 20s will be common at 7 am Monday, with upper
teens across the northern and northwest zones. None of this is
unusual for mid March, but some of the early vegetation will be
damaged by several hours of well below freezing temperatures
Monday morning.
High pressure retreats eastward quickly Monday, centered near
Tulsa at 7 pm. Light westerly return flow is expected, teaming
up with full sunshine to erode the cool air mass quickly. 12z
models show 850 mb temperatures rebounding Monday afternoon,
right back to where they were Sunday afternoon. As such, many
locations will achieve lower 60s Monday despite the cold start.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
All models unanimously show strong warming Tuesday, as any
residual cool air retreats quickly, and the stationary cutoff
low remains over Arizona. Models project a big jump in 850 mb
temperatures, with a net warming of +8 to +9C over Monday, and
with the benefit of full sunshine and light westerly downslope
compression over dry ground, temperatures will soar into the
70s. The forecast high of 75 at DDC is about 15 degrees above
normal for the time of year.
Long lived cutoff cyclone over the southwest will finally be
absorbed back into the westerlies Wednesday through Thursday.
Model consensus centers the cyclone just west of Amarillo at
7 pm Wednesday, with forcing for ascent improving from the Texas
panhandle into SW KS in the northeast quadrant of the cyclone`s
circulation. Unfortunately, a more southern track remains
favored in the guidance, which would place most meaningful
rainfall along and south of I-40 across the Texas panhandle and
Oklahoma. Still, many models at least attempt to produce
precipitation in Kansas, at least sprinkles or virga, Wednesday
afternoon, and MU CAPE of 500-800 J/kg is noted among the
various guidance. NBM pops remain in the conservative chance
category late Wednesday, favoring the southern and southeast
zones, and this is the best forecast for now. With weak
instability and the time of year, a mention of at least isolated
thunder is also appropriate in the grids. 12z EPS/GEFS members,
from both ensemble systems, give a 60-80% probability of
measurable QPF (at least 0.01 inch) along and south of US 50
late Wednesday/early Thursday. However, probability of useful
rainfall (> 0.10 inch) is far less, only 30-40%, and restricted
to near the Oklahoma border. In other words, there will be some
rain around late Wednesday and early Thursday, but it will not
be much. Any beneficial rainfall is expected to bypass SW KS to
the south. Increasing clouds and east winds are expected
Wednesday upon the system`s approach, which will shave
temperatures down, and the running NBM max temp grid for
Wednesday may be at least 5 degrees too warm.
The shortwave departs early Thursday, with rapid clearing, and
another pleasant afternoon in the 60s with light winds. There
will be no cold air advection, so another beautiful spring
afternoon will be enjoyed. Model consensus is another mild and
dry day Friday, but there is uncertainty here as GFS brings in
cooler air Friday, while ECMWF keeps us much warmer. The GFS/MEX
guidance appears too cold Friday/Saturday, and it appears NBM
ignored this guidance. Certainly by Saturday, strong south
winds and above normal temperatures are preferred, as shown by
NBM/ECMWF guidance. The next shortwave passage is currently
timed for next Sunday. This early in the game, it appears
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be available in Kansas,
and a strong dryline will be established (dewpoints at least in
the 50s), with strong to severe thunderstorms favored in central
Kansas/eastern zones Sunday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late Monday afternoon. Light and variable winds are expected during
the period as surface high pressure moves south-southeast across
the Central Plains.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...JJohnson