Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 271231
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
631 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Breezy southwest winds can be expected today ahead of a surface
trough on the high plains. Downslope flow and plenty of sun will
allow temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Temperatures tonight will only fall back into the 30s to lower
40s given the expected mostly clear skies and radiational
cooling.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

A fast moving upper level disturbance will pass across the
plains Tuesday night. With limited moisture, there is only
a small chance for rain, possibly changing to snow late at
night. Current thinking is that precipitation amounts will be
from a trace to a few hundredths. Highs Tuesday will depend on
the placement of the associated front; but current thinking is
that the front will be far enough south so that temperatures only
reach into the 50s to lower 60s across western Kansas. Some lower
70s are possible along the Oklahoma state line near the front.
Highs Wednesday behind the associated front will be cooler in the
lower 50s. A warming trend will develop once again by mid to late
next week with some 60s likely by Friday and 70s by Saturday as
weak lee troughing and south to southwesterly low level winds
develop due to zonal flow at mid levels across the Rockies. Highs
could reach near 80 degrees by Sunday ahead of a weak cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Low stratus was expanding in coverage across Oklahoma, however the
stratus is forecast to remain east of a HYS to DDC line, so TAF
will remain VFR. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest
late morning with speeds reaching maximum around 15 to 18 knots
sustained during the mid to late afternoon hours. Winds will drop
back to 8 to 10 knots after sunset. The next major wind shift will
occur late morning to early afternoon Tuesday as a cold front
pushes south across western Kansas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Model soundings indicated 25-30kt winds will develop in the
boundary layer, with gusts in this range occasionally
reaching the surface. Current dewpoints in far southwestern
Kansas were between 15 and 20 degrees, and this shouldn`t change
today. Therefore, with highs in the upper 60s, relative humidity
values will be in the 15% range and possibly a little lower.
Therefore a red flag warning was issued for far southwestern
Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  39  61  27 /   0   0  20  40
GCK  66  35  56  25 /   0   0  20  40
EHA  68  39  65  26 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  70  39  69  25 /   0   0  20  20
HYS  63  35  53  28 /   0   0  20  30
P28  64  43  70  32 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CST /noon MST/ this afternoon to 7 PM
CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for KSZ061-074-075-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Finch



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