Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261107
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
607 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Overnight water vapor and RAP analysis showed very slow-moving
upper level trough axis still centered across the Rockies. The
polar front, however, has pushed well to our southeast, such that
main precipitation axes extended from east-central NM through
Northwest TX into far eastern KS and on north from there into the
Upper Midwest. Western Kansas was under the influence of
increasing surface pressure and much cooler, drier air (drier in a
relative sense compared to what we have seen). With the polar
front so far south, have lowered POPs to 15-20 percent just along
the OK border and that is just through the morning hours. We have
removed POPs entirely from the forecast for the rest of the day
and tonight. Temperatures will be slow to climb through the 50s
with abundant low level cloud cover remaining, especially south
and west.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Another upper level low will be developing across the Four Corners
region, although it will be fairly weak, with the southwest flow
ahead of this low overlaid a very statically stable airmass over
the High Plains. Because of this, any precipitation that tries to
develop northward in advance of this low will be light and mainly
confined to New Mexico and Colorado closer to the center of the
mid level low itself, as we head into Wednesday and Thursday. Any
precipitation that makes its way far enough northeast will be
confined to areas nearest the Colorado border, and most likely not
until Thursday and/or Thursday Night time frame. A deepening
trough across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region will help keep
the cool airmass in place across the Central Plains, so we do not
expect a rapid warmup in temperatures through Friday. By the
upcoming weekend, however, we are seeing indications of a pattern
shift toward deep troughing in the West and ridging across the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and this will put us back into a
warm/windy regime with deep leeside trough development. Despite
this expected return flow, moisture will likely be marginal for at
least the first couple days of strong south winds. Thus,
precipitation chances will be very low, if any POPs at all.
Details in the synoptic evolution after the western trough sets
back over the weekend are very unclear right now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

MVFR/IFR cigs will prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites
through late this morning as low level stratus slowly lifts early
in the period. VFR conditions are then expected this afternoon as
the stratus deck continues to lift. Light northerly winds will
persist across western Kansas through tonight as a surface high
across western Nebraska shifts slowly eastward across the Central
Plains during the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  48  67  48 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  61  44  67  48 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  59  44  63  48 /  20  10  20  30
LBL  62  47  65  49 /  20  10  20  20
HYS  62  46  69  49 /  10  10   0   0
P28  66  53  69  52 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson


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