Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280454
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1154 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

N/NE winds prevail this afternoon with considerable stratocumulus.
Despite this, temperatures are warming into the 70s, and with
dewpoints holding in the 50s, there is still enough instability
(and bulk shear) for lingering convective concerns through this
evening. Convective initiation has already occurred near Great
Bend, and will need to monitor the eastern zones for strong to
severe storms through this afternoon. Additionally, upslope E/NE
flow is expected to incite a crop of scattered thunderstorms
across E/SE Colorado this afternoon, with many models indicating
this activity will impact the far SW zones (Stanton, Morton,
Stevens counties). SPC upgraded these areas to a slight risk for a
large hail threat for late this afternoon and evening. Bulk shear
is still 40-45 kts in this region, so rotating updrafts and
associated hail threat are possible. Expect this threat to remain
relegated to far SW Kansas into this evening.

Tonight...Decreasing clouds and diminishing N/NW winds. Lows
Sunday morning in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Sunday...A pleasant day for the Memorial Day weekend. Sunny and
dry for all of SW KS, with temperatures near late May normals, in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Tame NW breeze at 10-20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Synoptic pattern of stationary closed low near Hudson Bay, and
broad ridging over the western U.S., is forecasted by all models
to persist next week. This is a pattern that is quite unfavorable
for severe weather, unusual for this time of year. Still, models
also show shower and thunderstorm chances, on a late day, isolated
to scattered basis, continuing almost daily next week. Weak NW
flow aloft will be maintained, which will aid in directing
mountain convection toward SW KS each afternoon and evening.
Certainly, some stronger storms with hail and wind potential are
inevitable, but these will be isolated at best. Moisture will
remain sufficient for daily crops of convection, but with the loss
of jet stream energy, widespread severe weather is not expected.
Rain coverage will average 30-40% each afternoon/evening
(scattered category) each day Memorial Day through Thursday.
Certainly not wash out scenarios, but rain chances will persist
daily.

Friday...Flow becomes very summer-like, weak and nebulous across
the plains, under broad ridging, with the jet stream retreating to
Canada. Still, models concur on scattered thunderstorm coverage
continuing in the afternoon/evening. Locally heavy rain with slow
storm movement is likely, but severe weather is very unlikely.
Same song, next verses next weekend. Finally, long range ECMWF
shows another trough digging into the Great Basin around June 5,
which should improve the flow over the plains and the prospect for
strong to severe convection.

Afternoon temperatures will hold near late May/early June normals
(upper 70s to lower 80s) through the forecast period. Overnight lows
will gradually grow milder through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Cloudiness will decrease in coverage this morning with mostly
clear skies anticipated by this afternoon. Any clouds that do
remain this morning will be in the VFR range. Winds will generally
be from a northerly direction gusting above 15 knots by this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  78  52  81 /  30   0   0  10
GCK  50  78  50  80 /  40   0   0  20
EHA  48  76  50  80 /  80   0   0  10
LBL  52  78  51  82 /  50   0   0  10
HYS  52  78  52  78 /  20   0   0  10
P28  56  81  55  85 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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