000
FXUS63 KDDC 181745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE 18.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED TWO JET STREAK ACROSS THE CONUS.
ONE 95 KT STREAK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER 115 KT STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS WESTERLY AROUND
60 KT. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE 550 DM CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
OF WASHINGTON STATE. FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -24 DEG
C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FEATURE. DOWNSTREAM, A FEW SHORTWAVE TROFS
WERE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -28 DEG C. AT 700 HPA, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED
AT KDDC. TEMPS WERE FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z FLIGHT...STILL
@ 8 DEG C. SLIGHT COOLING WAS NOTED AT 850 HPA @ KDDC WITH THE OBSERVED
VALUE AT 18 DEG C INSTEAD OF 20 DEG C. AGAIN, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN WAS NOTED IN THE WIND FIELD. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT
WAS NOTED ACROSS COLORADO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED @ 17.9N 90.0W @ 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA,
WRAPPING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A VERY
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. THEREFORE, TODAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING
PAST. A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS IN THE FIVE THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL
FORM AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT UPPER WAVE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST EARLY TODAY. BUT, WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING UP AND BY LATE AFTERNOON A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO MORTON COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT, AND THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GO DOWN. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS HARD TO FORECAST, BUT
THINK THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEST OF A SCOTT
CITY TO LIBERAL LINE, SHOULD GET THE MOST.  AS FAR AS THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE COOLEST THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR SOME TIME LATELY. THE CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH WILL LIMIT DAY TIME HEATING, AND HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S FROM SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION AT LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BUT SHOULD END
UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MINS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS VERY
WARM 850-700MB DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR ADVECTS EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WHILE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS (SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AS THE MAIN
POLAR JET TROUGH WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST). THE GLOBAL
MODELS SEEM TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A CONVECTIVE QPF
SIGNAL ROLLING EAST ACROSS KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH SEEMS TO
BE TIED TO WARM FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183). THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST
A BIT ON THURSDAY THANKS TO INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE RH PLUMMETS TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS PERCENT. ALONG THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED AND A CONTINUED RATHER MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS (DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S). A SUBTROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET 45-50
KNOTS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT AND SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE
AT THIS TIME LOOKS RATHER SPARSE... SO WILL ONLY BE GOING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS COUNTIES FOR
NOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION/ADJACENT NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE POLAR JET STREAM FLOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SUBTROPICAL (YET RATHER WEAK) JET WILL CONTINUE FROM ARIZONA THROUGH
NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS MID LEVEL ANTICYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS RIDGE-BUILDING WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER PATTERN AS A 595+ DECAMETER HIGH AT 500MB
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH
WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS FRONT SHOULD DISSOLVE LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (ALTHOUGH NOT BEFORE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT). HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S SEEM
LIKELY...WITH THE PERSISTENT 100-DEGREE HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU TAF PD. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
OF SAID ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS WILL BE SE/S
5-11 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  64  88  67 /  20  30  40  20
GCK  84  63  90  66 /  20  30  40  10
EHA  83  63  93  66 /  20  30  20  10
LBL  85  63  92  67 /  20  30  30  10
HYS  87  66  86  67 /  20  30  40  20
P28  90  67  87  68 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...SUGDEN