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000
FXUS63 KDDC 240525
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northeast winds will diminish Tuesday afternoon.

- Southeast winds bring increasing moisture and clouds
  Wednesday.

- Stratus and drizzle Thursday morning.

- Scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Some
  storms may be severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Midday surface analysis showed the latest cold front had
progressed well into the Texas panhandle, with strong northeast
winds beginning to diminish across SW KS. Peak gusts Tuesday
morning reached 55 mph at GCK and 58 mph at DDC. Cold advection
behind this cold front is minimal, and with sunshine on dry
topsoils, low to mid 70s will be common at 5 pm.

Surface high pressure will build over the central plains tonight,
with rising pressures through sunrise Wednesday. As such, light
winds will trend easterly through Wednesday morning. To varying,
but limited degrees, some models suggest some light rain may
develop tonight and early Wednesday, as weak shortwaves ride
over this cool surface high. Expect plenty of mid and high
clouds in this developing warm advection pattern, but purposely
kept pops as low as possible in the grids. Slight chances for
light rain showers will favor the eastern zones into Wednesday
morning, but the probability of measurable rainfall at any one
location is very low. Cloud cover will disrupt radiational
cooling tonight, keeping most locations in the 40s through
sunrise.

Increasing southeast winds will begin the process of moisture
advection into SW KS Wednesday. 12z NAM shows surface high
pressure ridging holding firmly from near Amarillo to near
Wichita through Wednesday, which will maintain the SEly wind
component, and will also act to suppress temperatures downward.
Models show a net cooling of 2-3C at 850 mb, and with cloud
cover and upslope flow, temperatures will struggle to reach 70
Wednesday afternoon. This is very near normal for late April.
Most of SW KS will remain dry Wednesday, as most guidance is
dry, but can`t rule out sprinkles or a few light showers from
the expected clouds as moisture increases. EPS probability of
rainfall > 0.10 is only 20-30% across the southeast counties,
and 12z GEFS is much drier than that. Some raindrops may appear,
but meaningful rainfall is not expected.

Wednesday night and Thursday morning, moisture advection
strengthens greatly, ahead of the synoptic trough reaching Las
Vegas by 7 am Thursday. Dewpoints are expected to climb into the
lower 50s through Thursday morning, and this process will
generate stratus and drizzle, as shown by 12z NAM QPF drizzle
signatures. NAM and various CAMs show elevated MU CAPE
increasing through Thursday morning, so some elevated
thunderstorms are possible as the warm front makes its advance
northward into Kansas. Given clouds, moisture advection, and
south winds, temperatures will remain above 50 at most locations
through Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

     Significant Severe Weather Possible Thursday and Saturday...

Strong shortwave trough in Arizona 7 am Thursday is forecast to
eject northeast, approach SW KS around 7 pm Thursday, followed
by the main shortwave arriving in SW KS Thursday evening. Models
appear to be converging on a favorable timing relative to the
diurnal dryline cycle, such that supercell thunderstorms are
appearing more probable Thursday afternoon/evening. Forcing for
ascent will overspread a strong dryline late Thursday, and
interact with a moderately unstable, highly sheared warm sector.
The strongest convection parameters in the guidance are focusing
on the southeast zones, mainly south and east of DDC, which
aligns with severe weather climatology in SW KS in late April.
Morning trends of elevated convection and stratus will need to
be monitored, and how they modulate the northward advance of the
warm front. Much guidance suggests the warm front will be near
the US 400 corridor around 7 pm; it is along and south of this
boundary, and east of the dryline, probably near US 83, where
strong supercells with very large hail are most probable.
Tornado risk will be maximized toward sunset with the onset of
the low level jet, in tandem with any discrete supercells that
remain in the 8-9 pm time frame. Strong to intense tornadoes are
possible, again mainly southeast of Dodge City, if, and only if,
discrete supercells can take advantage of the low level jet
Thursday evening.

SPC has performed a rare day 3 upgrade today, now increasing
severe probability one more category to the enhanced level. This
aligns with the 12z trends in guidance. Included severe wording
in the grids for Thursday afternoon/evening. Model trends
suggest a large convective complex will grow upscale toward
midnight while exiting into central Kansas/WFO Wichita`s CWA.
Hatched probability for significant severe for Day 3 is
warranted, and an upgrade in severe risk probability is expected
for the southeast zones into western Oklahoma over the next few
forecast cycles. Dryslot will spread over SW KS after midnight
with strong gusty southwest to west winds.

Closed low over SW Nebraska is forecast to only drift northeast
across Nebraska daylight Friday, which ensures SW KS will find
itself in the familiar dry slot of the cyclone. Few clouds are
expected in a strongly subsident regime, which will encourage
warm afternoon temperatures in the 80s, and therefore strong
mixing. Increased wind grids to the 90%ile of the NBM, above
guidance, based on pattern recognition.

Brief transitory ridging is expected to pass over SW KS Saturday
morning, and a dry forecast was maintained during this time
period. Longwave trough will reload quickly, centered on
southeast Utah 7 am Saturday, then assume a negative tilt as it
enters eastern Colorado Saturday evening. A regional severe
weather episode appears synoptically evident on the 12z
guidance, with severe thunderstorms probable across portions of
Kansas, Oklahoma and north Texas. For SW KS, associated strong
surface cyclone will likely be over or near the DDC CWA, with a
triple point over or near the eastern zones at peak heating
Saturday. Supercells again appear probable with hail and tornado
risks, again favoring the eastern/southeast zones.

Sunday will feature another dryslot, as the second cyclone takes
a path similar to the first, through Nebraska. Slight cooler air
is expected Sunday, but much of this will be masked by westerly
downslope compression. Winds will be stronger than NBM guidance.

Quiet dry weather returns Monday and Tuesday with broad ridging
and a warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR flying conditions prevail across all terminals at the
beginning of this TAF cycle, with light and variable winds.
Shortly after sunrise, winds will increase out of the southeast
into the 13-18 kt range, and continue through the end of the
period. Near the end of the period, persistent moist advection
and diurnal cooling will result in cigs dropping into at least
MVFR, with further reductions likely beyond 06Z Thursday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Springer