Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 052332
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
632 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR GARDEN CITY BY MID
MORNING, THEN NEAR DODGE CITY AROUND NOON, AND FINALLY AT MEDICINE
LODGE AROUND 7 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12 TO
18 MPH WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
AND RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 WITH THE WARMEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

FOR MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY EVENING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. INITIAL
LOAD OF WPC QPF GIVES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4 INCH TO NEARLY 2
INCHES NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER SOME STORMS,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM, COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS, BETWEEN
DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE OVER. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND LASTLY AT MEDICINE LODGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 64 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY, COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO KANSAS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A PRATT TO COLDWATER LINE. HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY AROUND 78 TO 80 DEGREES WITH EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME STORMS MAY AGAIN REDEVELOP IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA
AND NEAR PRATT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND ALSO WEST OF GARDEN CITY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH AROUND 80 AT DODGE CITY TO
THE MID 80S NEAR ELKHART.

FOR THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR
THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AVERAGING AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ALONG THE FRONT, AND WE WILL CARRY A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (GCK, DDC,
HYS). AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH, PREVAILING WIND WILL
BE FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  86  62  78 /  10  80  60  10
GCK  71  84  61  80 /  30  60  20  10
EHA  69  80  61  79 /  20  40  20  10
LBL  72  85  64  78 /  20  40  20  10
HYS  72  82  60  79 /  30  70  30  10
P28  74  90  64  78 /  10  80  90  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



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