Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231702
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1202 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1013 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

WV imagery indicates a strong upper level trough of low pressure
shifting slowly east-southeast across the Great Basin creating a
southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Near the
surface, low pressure is anchored across southeast Colorado with an
attendant stationary frontal boundary extending northeast into
extreme northwest Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

An upper level low will move out of Nevada today then over Utah
tonight. Upper level shortwaves will move around the periphery of
this low enhancing lift across eastern Colorado and western
Kansas. Meanwhile, a surface frontal boundary will remain
stationary across eastern Colorado today then slowly slide
eastward into far western Kansas tonight. This will be the main
focal point where storms are expected to develop. Most of the
activity looks to remain across eastern Colorado this morning into
the early afternoon hours. Mid level clouds will increase in
coverage across western Kansas as the day progresses. Storms are
then expected to slide into far western Kansas late this afternoon
into the evening hours. A few of these storms may become strong to
severe with hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight with
the best chance located across far western Kansas. Breezy
southerly winds will continue through the short term as we will be
ahead of the aforementioned front. As for temperatures, highs
today are expected to range from around 80 degrees along the KS/CO
border to around 90 degrees across central and south central
Kansas. Lows tonight are anticipated to range form around 60
degrees along the KS/Co border to upper 60s across central and
south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The upper level low will move into the Central Rockies Saturday
night into Sunday, then into the Northern Plains Monday into
Tuesday. The frontal boundary at the surface will continue to push
eastward with rain chances expected over the entire CWA Sunday and
Monday. Precipitation chances are then expected to end from west
to east Tuesday. Mostly cloudy skies are expected to continue
through Monday with decreasing cloudiness from west to east
Tuesday. Models suggest a drier weather paten Wednesday through
Friday as upper level system moves out of the area with high
pressure being the dominate feature at the surface. As for
temperatures, highs Sunday look to range from the mid 70s across
west central Kansas to upper 80s across south central Kansas.
Below normal temperatures are then expected for the first part of
next week and only rise into the lower 70s. Mid 70s are then
possible as we head into the late part of next week. Lows are
expected to range form around 80s degrees west to mid 60s across
south central Kansas Sunday night then range from the mid 40s west
to upper 50s east Monday night. Low in the mid 40s to low 50s are
then expected for the remainder of the long term forecast

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will then be
possible in the vicinity of KGCK and KLBL toward daybreak resulting
in possible MVFR cigs/vsbys. Southerly winds 20 to 30kt will persist
across western Kansas through early this evening as a strong surface
low remains anchored across southeast Colorado. Winds may subside a
little later this evening and through the overnight hours with the
loss of daytime heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  65  79  58 /  10  50  60  60
GCK  85  62  77  55 /  50  80  80  60
EHA  79  60  77  52 /  60  80  60  50
LBL  84  63  78  57 /  40  70  70  70
HYS  88  68  78  59 /  10  50  60  70
P28  90  68  86  65 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...JJohnson



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