Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 041418
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
918 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WV imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
shortwave trough transitioning eastward across the Central Plains.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level shortwave is moving east across
the Wyoming Rockies. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is edging slowly east across extreme eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. A few supercells could form with hail up to golf ball size.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with low mid level shear
and high dewpoints with lower LCL`s. Today`s high temps will be
cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm
chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of that area in lesser
clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds will continue south
to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Cigs should be vfr through taf pd. still looking at vcts/cb for khys
tonight. Confidence is pretty low given the poor performance of models
recently. Winds will be SE/S 5-15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  69 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  91  66  94  68 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  92  66  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  68  96  69 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  86  67  91  68 /  40  50  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden


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