Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270541
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1241 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Severe thunderstorms can be expected late today and early this
evening east of dry line which now appears that is will be located
near or east of Dodge City and Meade late day. Severe
thunderstorms can also be expected north of a warm
front/stationary front that will extend from roughly Garden City
to Dodge City to around the Larned areas. Conditions are favorable
late this afternoon and early tonight for any storm that does
develop to rapidly intensify with hail up to 3 inches and strong
damaging winds likely. A few tornadoes will also be possible. At
this time this more favorable area for tornadoes be south of
Dighton to Dodge City to Ashland line.

On Friday an upper level trough will cross the West Central High
Plains and a cold front will drop south into western Kansas. As
this upper level system crosses western Kansas late day and early
Friday night there will once again be a chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms along a dry line which currently appears to
be located in central Kansas late day. Scattered thunderstorms are
also possible late day and into the overnight period north of the
cold front as it drops south out into southwest Kansas. Highs
south of the cold front still look to be warm and should range
from 80 to 85 degrees. northwest of this front highs will average
close to 10 degrees cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

On Saturday ans the first upper trough will lift northeast into
the Mississippi Valley as a westerly down slope flow develops
across the central Rockies. This will result in a surface trough
of low pressure deepening along the lee of the Rockies and warming
in the 900mb to 850mb level. Based on these temperatures at 0z
Sunday will continue to favor highs in the low to possibly mid 80s
near the Colorado border. Further east northeast there will be
more clouds early in the day with even a slight chance for a few
lingering showers across north central Kansas. These clouds will
move east during the afternoon and temperatures here should climb
back to around 80.

On Sunday the surface pressures will continue to fall along the
lee of the Rockies as another upper level trough begins to cross
the southwestern United States. One upper level disturbance is
still forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF to move from the base of
this eastward moving upper level trough and into the Central
Plains late Sunday. This will result in a chance for scattered
thunderstorms for western Kansas late Sunday and Sunday night.

The chance for thunderstorms will continue through at least the
first half of the work week as the southern branch upper level
trough crosses the southwest United States and a northern branch
upper wave moves east towards the northern and central Rockies.

A persistent southeast flow early next week across western Kansas
will keep advecting some low level moisture back into western
Kansas. This will not only favor improving chances for
thunderstorms next week but also the lows early next week are
expected to be unseasonably warm. The latest CRExtendedFcst_Init
may be a little on the cool side but at this time the trend is
there so will not stray far. During the day early next week it
will be warm and muggy with highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

An area of low pressure with associated warm and cold fronts will
be found across western Kansas this morning. This will lead to
easterly winds at the HYS terminal and northwesterly winds at
the GCK terminal. Wind direction at DDC will be difficult to
predict due to the location of the aforementioned features. I
have placed a northwesterly wind direction in the TAFs for now
but may need to be changed if the boundary slides back west. VFR
conditions will prevail across DDC and GCK terminals overnight
with decreasing cloudiness. The KHYS terminal will remain at VFR
until a few hours before sunrise when low stratus or patchy fog
may form causing MVFR conditions. Any fog that does form should
burn off within a few hours of sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  79  53  82 /  20  30  40  10
GCK  54  75  51  83 /  20  40  40  10
EHA  50  74  51  83 /  10  30  20  10
LBL  52  78  53  83 /  10  30  20  10
HYS  57  78  55  79 /  40  40  40  10
P28  65  82  58  83 /  60  40  40  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42


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