000
FXUS63 KDDC 221737
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY
22 2013

UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE "MAY
LIKE" DURING THE AFTERNOON RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. THERE WILL BE RATHER
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH BASED WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE WARMEST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THOUGH.

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE LIFTING EAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT A WIND MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW WILL HAVE A SURFACE RESPONSE THAT WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT AND WITH AN UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY STRATUS MAY VERY WELL
DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE WHAT THEY ARE THIS
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AS A STRONG
CLOSED OFF LOW REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL SET UP A MORE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS AS A PREVAILING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, NAM AND GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY, NOT TO
MENTION A POSSIBLE CAPPING ISSUE THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STILL, UPSLOPE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROJECTED TO EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SUPPORT RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AND
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPING TO DRAW THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BETTER SUPPORTING POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP USHER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS(C) IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. ALONG WITH EXPECTED INCREASING CLOUDS, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
UP INTO THE 70S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLY THE MID 80S(F) IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY TO
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW MVFR
CIGS TO GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY BY 10Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  51  73  58 /   0  10  20  40
GCK  80  50  72  58 /   0  10  20  30
EHA  83  54  78  59 /  10  10  30  30
LBL  83  54  75  60 /  10  10  30  30
HYS  74  47  71  56 /   0  10  20  40
P28  80  54  73  59 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...GERARD