Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 170653
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
153 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Moisture will increase in the 850mb to 600mb level during the
early morning hours as I295K and I300K isentropic lift improves
across southwest and south central Kansas. This will be occurring
ahead an approaching upper level trough which was located across
eastern Colorado earlier this morning. At this time it currently
appears the area more favorable for measurable precipitation this
morning will be south of the 700mb baroclinic zone which the
latest RAP, NAM and even GFS had located from roughly Garden City
to Pratt at 12z Thursday. As an upper level trough crosses western
Kansas during the mid to late morning the precipitation in this
area will taper off from west to east. Clearing skies will then
develop during the afternoon hours, and based on this clearing
trend expected along with the 00z Thursday NAM and GFS models
soundings the previous forecast still looks on track with highs
warming into the low to mid 50s. The cooler temperatures will be
across south central Kansas where the clouds will not exit until
late day.

An area of high pressure at the surface will cross central Kansas
during the afternoon which will allow the northeast winds veer to
the southeast. Overnight as this surface high moves into eastern
Oklahoma and Missouri the winds will become more south/southwest.
Based on these winds along with the return some low level
moisture will stay close to the latest guidance with temperatures
falling back mainly into the mid 30s. Did however favor lows
slightly warmer than guidance across far western Kansas given the
moisture return expected and possible cloud cover. In south
central Kansas based on wind speeds less than 10 mph will trim a
few degrees off the latest guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The next chances for measurable rainfall are with 2 storm systems
coming into the Plains, the first one this Easter Weekend, then a
much stronger storm system by Wednesday of next week.

The Easter system will move northeastward from the Desert Southwest
as a subtropical upper level shortwave trough and into the Central
and Southern Plains on Saturday. Lots of high level cloudiness is
forecast on Saturday, and limited moisture return, will keep layer
instability low, so the probability of severe thunderstorms looks
minimal at this time. Will keep the thunderstorms chances of 30 to
40 percent from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. By sunrise
Sunday morning much of the rainfall will be moving east into south
central Kansas.

Then next storm system will move out into the Plains by next
Wednesday as a strong upper level low and attendant shortwave trough
moving eastward out of the Pacific Northwest. The new ECMWF model
shows the system a bit faster than the GFS. Ensemble members of the
GFS are about split between the current slower operational member
and the faster solutions. So lots of uncertainty exists in the timing
of this next storm system into western Kansas. If the slower
solutions are correct, then more moisture will be pulled northward
ahead of the system, and ahead of a dryline, and the storm chances
will increase. If storms develop the chances of severe are looking
increasingly better with good shear in place. If the faster
solutions are correct then the dryline could push out of southwest
and south central Kansas and into central Kansas with minimal
chances for storms across western Kansas.

High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s through the period with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s Friday morning warming into
the 40s and 50s into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

BUFR soundings indicating moisture will increase at and above the
850mb level as mid level lift improves ahead of an upper level
trough approaches western Kansas overnight. Cloud bases will
thicken and lower early this morning but VFR conditions are
anticipated tonight and Thursday based on the latest BUFR
soundings and HRRR. With the increase in moisture and lift there
will be a chance for rain...mainly between 09z and 18z at DDC and
GCK. Along with this chance of precipitation the ceilings may
briefly fall into the MVFR criteria early this morning. Northeast
winds will be/decrease to around 10kts overnight and then
gradually veer to the southeast early Thursday as a surface ridge
axis begins to build into central Kansas from the north.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  36  72  52 /  20   0   0  10
GCK  56  38  75  52 /  20   0   0  10
EHA  55  38  76  53 /  70   0   0  10
LBL  55  38  77  52 /  70   0   0  10
HYS  56  36  72  52 /   0   0   0  10
P28  52  36  71  53 /  70   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Burgert






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