Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281714
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

At 12z Friday an upper level trough/low was located over the
eastern Pacific, and an upper level ridge axis was located over
the western United States. Further east an upper level trough
extended from western Iowa to southwest Kansas, and a weaker upper
level disturbance was located across southwest Nebraska. A 700mb
and 850mb low was located over northwest Nebraska, and a
northwesterly flow was present over the Western High Plains. An
850mb temperature gradient was present across southwest Nebraska
and northwest Kansas. 850mb temperatures ranged from +15c at North
Platte to +23c at Dodge City. A the surface at 12z Friday a Cold
front stretched from southeast Nebraska to the panhandle of Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Any overnight showers and thunderstorms will quickly exit to the east
by 8 am or 9 am. The rest of today will be dry. The old 12Z ARW/NMM
models were showing convection for this evening across far western Kansas,
but the 00Z data solutions have backed off on this. Water vapor imagery
shows a departing synoptic trof with subsidence in its wake. So, will
keep pops aob 10 percent across the forecast area for this afternoon
and evening. A light northerly wind is expected today in the wake of
a weak passing cold front. Highs will range from upper 80s to lower
90s, with the warmest across Barber county. Overnight lows should range
from the upper 50s across west-central Kansas to mid 60s across south-
central Kansas. No precipitation is expected through the overnight period,
with pops trending to zero percent.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A Summer-time pattern continues across southwest Kansas through much
of the long term domain. Highs Saturday should be in the upper 80s to
near 90 degrees again. High pressure will ridge across the central plains
with weak southerly flow developing on the backside of the departing
high be Saturday evening. No precipitation is expected. Highs will moderate
a few degrees Sunday and Monday with widespread 90s. On Tuesday evening,
the superblend has 15-20 percent pops across the northern zones. The
00Z ECMWF is indicating isolated convection developing along the surface
trough with plenty of daytime heating. This looks fine for now given
the long range uncertainty and the low pop values. More 90+ weather
and predominantly dry conditions should close out the rest of the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A surface high will build across western Kansas overnight and
Saturday as an upper level ridge axis crosses the Rockies and
moves out into the Western High Plains. With mostly clear
conditions overnight along with light winds will trend towards
undercutting the cooler guidance by a couple of degrees.

On Saturday the upper ridge axis will cross into the central
plains as a series of upper level disturbances move from the base
of the eastern Pacific trough towards the northern Rockies. The 24
hour change in 900mb to 850mb temperatures between 00z Saturday
and 00z Sunday indicate little if any warm up across far western
Kansas. Also given an east to southeasterly flow Saturday
afternoon around a surface to 850mb high that will be slowly
moving across western Kansas during the day there will be even
some cooling occurring across central Kansas. Using 850mb
temperatures at 00z Sunday as a guide for highs there will be
little if any change in temperatures west of highway 83.
Temperatures further east will be at or a few degrees cooler than
highs today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  61  89  62 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  92  60  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  89  60  89  62 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  91  61  90  62 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  89  60  89  60 /  10   0   0   0
P28  93  64  90  64 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert


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