Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221803
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1203 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. SPECIFICALLY, A COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS MOVING EAST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THIS NORTHERN BRANCH IS BEING DOMINATED BY A STRONG
150-KT JET STREAK RUNNING FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. CLOSER TO THE GROUND...RECENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
LEE TROUGH IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM EASTERN CO/NM INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHEAST, THE LEE TROUGH IS DEEPENING ENOUGH TO ALLOW
DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS IS STUCK BETWEEN THE STALLED FRONT AND THE LEE TROUGH, WEAK
MOISTURE RETURN IS STILL EVIDENT. THIS SETUP ALONG WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS PERMITTED WIDESPREAD FOG WITH SOME AREAS EXPERIENCING
VISIBILITY VALUES UNDER A MILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

INITIALLY FOR THIS MORNING, THE SEMI-PERSISTENT AREA OF FOG BETWEEN
THE LEE TROUGH AND STALLED BOUNDARY OVER OKLAHOMA, SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE BUT THEN LIFT/ERODE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING.
IN ADDITION, SURFACE WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF THE LEE TROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND THE INCREASE IN DOWNSLOPE
WINDS HAS DECREASED THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG COMPARED TO THE
EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS SETUP, IF ONLY SOME LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
DENSE FOG REMAIN AFTER 10 UTC, WILL LIKELY NEED TO CANCEL THE
EXISTING ADVISORY. OTHERWISE, A LARGE SHIELD OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER STRETCHING OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE, WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH A MODEST DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WIND, WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE
60S.

THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS MILD
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SPECIFICALLY, THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS TX WHILE A CYCLONIC WAVE BREAK AT
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 150+ KT JET STREAK CARVES OUT A SECOND WAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER TONIGHT. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL BE
THE FEATURE THAT KICKS A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP AND PERSISTENT ASCENT WILL BE
LACKING WITH THIS WAVE, INCREASED FORCING FROM THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALONG WITH 700-600 HPA FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FAIRLY EARLY ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE FROPA ZONE. LIGHT
SNOW IS MORE LIKELY EARLY IN THE NORTH, WITH SPRINKLES MORE LIKELY
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
LATE MORNING. EITHER WAY, ONLY A TRACE TO 0.01 INCH OF PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW AT 25 MPH,
GUSTING TO 35 MPH. SO, THERE WILL BE A WIND CHILL ELEMENT IN THE
AIR.

BEYOND SUNDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TURN TO MORE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS, BUT THE
CEILINGS SHOULD BE NOT TOO GREAT TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PLOWING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS PLAINS. THIS MEANS THE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACK DOOR INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, WITH HIGHS
ON THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING DAY ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S IN THE HAYS
AND LACROSSE AREAS, THE MID 40S FROM MEDICINE LODGE TO DODGE CITY
TO SCOTT CITY, AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF KANSAS NEAR ELKHART. WINDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD START AROUND
10 MPH IN THE EARLY MORNING, THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO
15 MPH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD OFF TO OUR EAST.  WE
WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN AS SOON AS FRIDAY WHEN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE RETURNS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE HAYS TO ST. JOHN CORRIDOR, TO THE MID 50S IN
OUR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THE COLDEST MORNING WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL RETURN AT KHYS AND POSSIBLY KDDC BETWEEN 02-04Z
AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS AND THE LOWER LEVELS COOL, WITH A
CONTINUATION OF MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS
WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY 12-15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  39  51  28 /   0   0  20  10
GCK  64  35  50  25 /   0  10  20  10
EHA  68  36  49  26 /   0   0  20  10
LBL  67  35  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
HYS  62  38  50  29 /   0  10  20  10
P28  63  51  56  32 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...FINCH


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