Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 060549
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1249 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 00Z MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST, AND A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN MONTANA. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO WITH CONVECTION OCCURRING EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AS OF 03Z, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. WARM 700MB
TEMPERATURES WERE REPORTED AT 00Z MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. DODGE CITY REPORTED +15C, NORTH PLATTE +16C. THE AXIS OF
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WEST TO EAST
NORTHEAST COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN WYOMING TO WESTERN
MINNESOTA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR GARDEN CITY BY MID
MORNING, THEN NEAR DODGE CITY AROUND NOON, AND FINALLY AT MEDICINE
LODGE AROUND 7 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12 TO
18 MPH WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
AND RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 WITH THE WARMEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

FOR MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY EVENING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. INITIAL
LOAD OF WPC QPF GIVES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4 INCH TO NEARLY 2
INCHES NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER SOME STORMS,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM, COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS, BETWEEN
DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE OVER. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND LASTLY AT MEDICINE LODGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 64 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY, COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO KANSAS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A PRATT TO COLDWATER LINE. HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY AROUND 78 TO 80 DEGREES WITH EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME STORMS MAY AGAIN REDEVELOP IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA
AND NEAR PRATT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND ALSO WEST OF GARDEN CITY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH AROUND 80 AT DODGE CITY TO
THE MID 80S NEAR ELKHART.

FOR THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR
THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH 12Z AT GCK, AND 15Z-18Z AT DDC AND HYS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BELOW 5000FT AGL DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IMPROVES.
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  78  58  80 /  60  10  10  10
GCK  61  80  58  81 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  61  79  60  84 /  20  10  20  20
LBL  64  78  60  82 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  60  79  56  81 /  30  10  10  10
P28  64  78  62  80 /  90  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT



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