Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211724
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1224 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Much cooler air filtering into Kansas through this afternoon, but
certainly nothing unusual for March. Stratus has been broken
across the northern zones, and not as widespread as expected,
allowing most locations to get within a few degrees of 60 this
afternoon. NE winds of 15-25, gusting near 30 mph, will continue
into the evening hours.

Consensus of short term models and forecast soundings indicate
stratus to become widespread tonight. This makes sense as easterly
upslope flow of 10-20 mph maintained overnight. Fog and drizzle
are not expected tonight. With the thick clouds and easterly flow,
added several degrees to Wednesday morning low temperatures. Most
locations will hold well above freezing, in the mid to upper 30s.
For many days now, models have been consistent in generating light
rain showers overnight tonight, as weak vorticity maxima aloft
pass over the post frontal upslope. Models are very loath to
generate much QPF with such limited forcing. As such, purposely
limited pop grids tonight to slight chance (<25%) and QPF to 0.01
inch. Don`t expect much; beneficial rainfall is not expected.

Wednesday...Cool airmass remains wedged into at least the eastern
1/2 of SW Kansas, keeping temperatures restricted to the 50s near
and east of Dodge City. Modification of the cooler airmass
expected west, where locations near the Colorado border will warm
well into the 60s. These temperatures will be dependent of stratus
evolution, and may end up being too warm across the east. Initial
lee side cyclogenesis along I-25 Wednesday afternoon will induce a
SE wind of 15-25 mph with some higher gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Although mostly cloudy to overcast skies are expected to persist within an
east to southeasterly upslope flow across the high plains Wednesday,
generally dry conditions are forecast across extreme western Kansas
as any areas of light rain/drizzle associated with H5 vort maxima moving
across the area are expected to push off to the east by mid day. However,
periods of light precip may linger across central Kansas during the
day while possibly redeveloping westward into west central and southwest
Kansas Wednesday night as low/mid level moisture really begins to lift
back into the area.

A more significant chance for precip will be late Thursday as medium
range models show a strong upper level trough of low pressure pushing
off the Pacific into the Desert Southwest early in the period, setting
up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western
High Plains. Meanwhile, developing surface low pressure lee of the
Rockies will strengthen in response to the approaching upper level
system, in turn leading to an intensifying southerly flow across
the high plains, and subsequently a developing dryline. Additionally,
an intensifying upper level jet core is projected to pivot the axis
of the approaching trough and lift northeast across the South Plains
of west Texas into the high plains of western Kansas creating sufficient
dynamic support aloft. As a result, thunderstorms will be possible
along and ahead of the dryline late Thursday afternoon and evening as
it pushes eastward. The potential for severe storms may need to be
considered with increasing instability. Drier conditions are likely
by the weekend as the strong upper level system kicks off to the east
while upper level ridging moves out of the Rockies into the Western
High Plains.

A warming trend will begin Wednesday, at least across our extreme
southwest, as a departing surface high across the Great Lakes and
a developing lee side trough of low pressure in eastern Colorado
sets up a southerly flow across the area. This will draw warmer
air back into extreme southwest Kansas with H85 temperatures well
up into the teens(C) to near 20C while cooler air will be slower
to erode in central Kansas. Highs are expected up into the 60s(F)
to possibly the lower 70s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday
afternoon with the 50s(F) holding on in central Kansas. Strong
warm air advection will push highs well into the 70s(F) Thursday
afternoon with a few lower to mid 80s(F) not out of the question.
Cooler temperatures will return Friday, particularly to west central
and portions of southwest Kansas, as a cold front begins pushing
into the western part of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

VFR conditions expected at all sites until early tomorrow
morning. Surface high pressure continues to build today keeping
our winds gusting up to 30 knots. This, combined with H85 wind
speeds at ~20 knots will keep surface winds at 10-20 knots
through ~7Z (KDDC & KGCK) and ~11Z (KHYS), when low level stratus
advects into the region. Models show ceilings lowering to MVFR
criteria, around 2500 feet, with KHYS lowering even further into
near 1500.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  38  57  44 /   0  20  10  20
GCK  58  38  62  44 /  10  20  10  20
EHA  64  39  67  46 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  64  38  64  45 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  57  36  53  43 /  10  20  10  30
P28  65  42  57  48 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Reynolds



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