Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 272308
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
608 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Convective debris from last night`s thunderstorms is clearing
nicely this afternoon, with E/SE upslope flow expected to
reestablish by this evening. 12z NAM, and several of the CAMs,
develop thunderstorms in NW KS by 7 pm, with a loosely organized
complex then heading south into the northern CWA this evening.
Surface moisture is quite elevated, with a dewpoint of 70 here at
the office as of noon, with a dewpoint of 70 as far west as
Syracuse. MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg widespread across SW KS already as
of noon. So, instability will be more than sufficient to sustain
another storm complex tonight. Easterly surface winds beneath
modest NW flow aloft should allow for some storm rotation, at
least initially. SPC`s broad marginal 5% wind/hail probabilities
through tonight look sufficient for now, but the risk for
marginally severe hail/wind will increase whereever the complex
decides to evolve. Increased thunderstorm coverage in the grids
this evening and tonight, to account for the mesoscale CAM and NAM
solutions. Lows tonight ranging from the mid 60s in Hamilton
county to the lower 70s in Barber county.

Thursday...Overnight convection expected to dissipate by around
sunrise. Most locations dry for most of Thursday again, as
atmosphere again recovers from overnight convective overturning.
Strong 597 dm upper high will remain stationary over the Great
Basin Thursday, allowing NW flow to persist aloft. Synoptic
pattern strongly favors a strong MCS to traverse SW KS, and the
models have been hinting at this for several days now. Shear and
instablity combination will ignite severe thunderstorms across
NW KS by 7 pm Thursday, with a severe MCS expected to track SE
into SW KS Thursday evening. Damaging winds appear likely, and
agree with SPC upgrading to an enhanced severe risk for this
severe wind threat. Outdoor activities Thursday evening will be
impacted by these strong to severe storms, including Dodge City
Days festivities. Will begin social media and DSS coverage of this
expected MCS to begin spreading the word.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Large mesoscale convective system (MCS) expected to be ongoing
across Kansas early Friday morning. Most models including the
12z ECMWF redevelop convection across SW KS Friday afternoon, but
mesoscale details on how outflow boundaries will interact is
unknown. If atmophere can recover by Friday evening, marginally
severe wind/hail is possible, but uncertainty is high. Confident of
cooler temperatures on Friday, with convective debris clouds and an
east component to surface winds holding most locales in the 80s.

Saturday through Monday...The trend will be for afternoons to get
progressively hotter, and for rain chances to dwindle, as high
pressure aloft spreads east into the central plains. Heights and
850 mb temperatures climb daily, with afternoon temperatures
ending up near 100 Monday August 1st.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening, with most
short range models still suggesting a more organized complex of
convection may develop this evening. Impacts to aviation will
increase this evening and tonight if the complex does indeed
organize. Storms will move generally southward. All convection is
expected to diminish by around 12z Thursday. Airports expected to
remain dry/VFR through daylight hours Thursday, with SE winds
prevailing at 10-20 kts. High confidence that another large
thunderstorm complex will affect the terminals again Thursday
evening. These storms may be severe producing winds to 60 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  92  67  86 /  40  20  70  30
GCK  66  92  66  86 /  40  20  70  20
EHA  67  96  66  93 /  20  10  30  20
LBL  69  97  69  92 /  20  10  30  20
HYS  67  89  66  84 /  50  30  70  30
P28  72  95  70  87 /  20  20  60  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner


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