Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 021137
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
637 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

A clearing sky across the western counties this morning is
allowing temperatures to once again fall within a few degrees of
freezing, with Syracuse currently reporting 34 degrees. Issued a
frost advisory for the western zones through sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Cloud canopy across SW Kansas will gradually erode through the
morning hours, as weak shortwave moves east. Atmosphere dries out
substantially on Monday, allowing for much more sunshine.
Afternoon temperatures will recover nicely from Sunday`s
unseasonably cold readings, into the lower 60s, but this is still
about 10 degrees below normal for early May. Still a much more
pleasant day for Monday, given NW winds much more behaved at only
10-20 mph.

A mostly clear sky overnight will allow radiational cooling to
send temperatures below normal again, with lows at sunrise Tuesday
morning ranging from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Some increase
in cloud cover towards dawn Tuesday, as a weak shortwave
approaches from the north.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Kansas weather will be quiet and dry through the upcoming week,
along with a pronounced warming trend. Weak shortwave embedded in
northerly flow aloft will drop through SW Kansas on Tuesday, with
very little fanfare. A sprinkle or two is possible, but the odds
of measurable rain are very low, and kept the forecast dry (pop
grids less than 15%). High pressure ridge axis amplifies strongly
over the Rocky Mountains and high plains Wednesday, in response to
deepening upper lows in California and the Great Lakes. Expecting
few if any clouds over SW Kansas by Wednesday as strong subsidence
takes over. Afternoon temperatures will warm nicely, back to where
they should be in early May, in the upper 60s and lower 70s on
Tuesday, and in the upper 70s Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday...High pressure ridge axis remains highly
amplified, as it phases ever so slowly eastward across the high
plains. Models have been consistent with the ridge axis passing
SW Kansas Friday morning. As such, thickness and 850 mb
temperatures peak on Friday afternoon, and Friday is expected to
be the warmest day of the forecast period (low to mid 80s).

Moisture transport on strong southerly flow will begin Friday,
with south winds gusting over 40 mph. Increased mixing and
boundary layer moisture will keep Saturday morning lows mild in
the mid to upper 50s.

Saturday and Sunday...Potential for thunderstorms will clearly
increase across SW Kansas this weekend, as SW flow returns aloft,
and the dryline is established. Magnitude of the severe weather
threat will depend on how much jet energy emanates from the large
closed Great Basin low, and the quality of the moisture return
east of the dryline. These details are far from clear this far
out, but the 00z ECMWF run currently suggests convection is most
likely across the western zones Saturday, and the eastern zones on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

A weak surface trough will develop on the high plains by this
evening, resulting in 10 kt northwesterly winds becoming light
south to southwesterly after 00z. VFR conditions will persist
with only some cloud AOA050 this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  40  69  45 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  62  39  69  42 /  10  10  10   0
EHA  60  38  69  43 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  62  37  69  43 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  63  40  71  46 /  10  10  10   0
P28  65  42  74  47 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ043-
044-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Finch



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