Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 260531
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Impressive MCS continues to dive south through W TX this morning,
with cirrus anvil outflow still spreading across the southern
half of SW KS. Beneath this, persistent layers of stratus clouds
remain. These stratus ceilings will continue to lower overnight
into Monday morning, in response to gentle moist upslope winds
interacting with the higher terrain. Will need to keep watch for
any fog development through Monday morning, given the current
setup augmented by yesterday`s rainfall.

Low stratus clouds will gradually erode and lift to a broken
mid layer cloud deck by this afternoon. Temperatures will be
several degrees warmer today, but still well below normal, in the
lower 80s. Instability does return this afternoon, with 00z NAM
forecasting lifted indices near -5C and CAPE near 1500 J/kg.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in
response, but determining exactly where is difficult with weak
surface flow and lack of focusing mechanisms. At least a slight
chance mentioned in all zones this afternoon, with higher
scattered coverage favoring the northern half of the CWA.
Latest HRRR solutions favor this thinking, with scattered
thunderstorms developing north of US 50 by 5 pm. 00z NAM develops
convection along and east of US 283 this afternoon, while other
models are more keen on focusing development closer to a synoptic
frontal boundary in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor. Whereever
storms decide to form, the CAPE and shear combination is expected
to favor supercell structures initially with a primary risk for
large hail.

Thunderstorms slowly dissipate tonight. Leftover cloud cover and a
moist boundary layer will keep temperatures elevated, remaining in
the lower 60s Tuesday morning.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The cool period of the weekend and early part of the workweek will
come to an end as a broad upper ridge followed by zonal upper flow
and southwest downslope boundary layer air. Shortwave Tuesday night
may or may not mean thunderstorms for southwest Kansas as there are
differences in the GFS and ECMWF at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Stratus cigs will gradually lower overnight through 12z Mon.
VFR will continue at HYS, but otherwise cigs may fall to MVFR for
several hours at DDC, GCK and especially LBL. After sunrise, cigs
will gradually climb back to VFR with a broken stratocumulus
field. Instability returns on Monday, with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms expected to develop after 21z. Confident on storms
developing, but no confidence on storm placement with forcing
mechanisms lacking. For now, placed VCTS/CB in all TAFs after 21z.
Winds will remain light, outside of convection, during this TAF
period - generally less than 10 kts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  83  62  89 /  30  20  30  10
GCK  55  85  61  90 /  30  30  30  10
EHA  58  83  62  90 /  50  20  20  10
LBL  60  84  63  91 /  30  20  30  10
HYS  55  81  61  88 /  30  30  30  10
P28  60  85  64  89 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.