Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Focus is on the hot conditions and elevated heat indices over the
next couple of days. An impressive 700 mb ridge characterized by
324 dam geopotential heights extends across the Southern Plains
into the lower Ohio Valley. Dew points in the 60s to the Colorado
line and lower 70s dew points in southeast Kansas should create
hazardous heat indices by the afternoon, and the heat advisory
will remain in place today, extending into late Friday much of
the eastern half of the forecast area. Overnight lows are too
expected to be very warm, and even in the mid to upper 70s the
next couple of nights.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Relief from the excessive heat will come by the beginning of the
weekend as the upper ridge begins to break down. It is not
impossible to see a storms across the I-70 corridor Friday night,
as weak shortwave energy rotates over the top of the mid level
ridge. The GFS supports a better opportunity for more widespread
thunderstorm chances by Saturday evening/overnight when the mid
levels become much less stable. Temperatures moderate back toward
normal climatological highs and lows in the extended period
(generally speaking next week).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

VFR expected to prevail through the TAF forecast. SW winds again
gusting to 25-30 kts this afternoon, with sct to bkn mid clouds
developing by evening. Surface winds weaken at 00z with another
round of modest low level wind shear overnight. 12z NAM/GFS models
are both forecasting scattered -SHRA/-TSRA during the 06-12z Fri
timeframe (especially near HYS), with HRRR solutions also
indicating convection near HYS by 06z Friday. Have low confidence
in these solutions, so only included VCSH/VCTS sparingly in the
TAFs for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 102  74 103  75 /   0  10  10  10
GCK 101  71 102  74 /  10  10  20  20
EHA 101  71 102  73 /   0  10  20  20
LBL 102  72 103  73 /   0  10  10  10
HYS 104  74 103  75 /  10  20  20  20
P28 104  76 106  77 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ030-031-044>046-
064>066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner



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