Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 152307
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
607 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Fantastic fall weather across Kansas this afternoon with a 1030 mb
surface high pressure ridge in full control. No clouds in Kansas
or anywhere near Kansas, and the crystal clear sky will continue
through Monday with a dry atmosphere persisting. Winds are in the
process of becoming light and variable this afternoon with the
surface high centered in the vicinity, and light and variable
winds will continue into the evening before trending light SWly
tonight.

Tonight...Clear and cold with strong radiational cooling.
Expecting temperatures to fall well down into the 30s at all
locations through Monday morning. This includes the normally
warmer SE zones, as these areas will hang onto calm winds the
longest with the ridge axis nearby. That being said, do not see
temperatures near 32 being easily achieved anywhere (outside of
river valleys, etc) and do not see a hard freeze potential
anywhere across SW KS tonight. A light SW breeze is expected
after midnight on the back side of the ridge axis, which will add
a slight warming downslope component, and should keep
temperatures from falling to their full potential (dewpoints in
the upper 20s). At any rate, certainly cold enough to mention
patchy frost in all zones late tonight and Monday morning.

Monday...Sunny, breezy and warmer. Still a very dry atmosphere
over the plains, and expecting zero clouds. Pressure gradient
increases modestly in the return flow, with a 7-8 mb gradient
across the CWA. S/SW winds will increase to 15-25 mph with some
higher gusts in the afternoon. Pleasant readings (near room
temperature) in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

An extended period of dry weather is on the way to SW Kansas,
Tuesday through at least Friday with zero chance of precipitation.
Extremely quiet synoptic pattern continues to be forecast on
Tuesday, with broad ridging over the Desert SW and zonal flow over
the northern tier of the U.S. Very few if any clouds will result
in this pattern with fully sunny days and crystal clear nights.
Temperatures warm several more degrees into the upper 70s Tuesday,
as a warming trend continues at 850 mb. With virtually no changes
in the pattern surface and aloft, Wednesday appears to be a carbon
copy of Tuesday with little change in temperatures.

Thursday...Broad ridging over the plains begins to break down, and
transition to SW flow aloft, as a large trough arrives on the west
coast of North America. Still dry, still no change in sensible
weather, still no changes in temperature. A bit more south wind in
the afternoon.

Friday...Windy. Large Pacific trough makes headway into the Great
Basin, increasing SW flow aloft and strengthening lee side
troughing. FB builder wind grids capture this nicely with south
winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts. 12z ECMWF shows a strong
warm plume spreading out into the plains Friday, and max temp
grids are likely not warm enough. Still dry.

This weekend...Model guidance has been flopping around, trying to
decide if the western trough evolves into a closed low or remains
an open progressive wave. 12z GFS is back to closed low, and looks
similar to previous ECMWF runs, with a closed low near El Paso by
Sunday. Today`s 12z ECMWF now forecasts an open wave passage in
Kansas, with the accompanying cold front, strong winds and rain
showers on Saturday. Current GFS runs look excessively wet, but it
will all come down to how progressive the wave will be, and it is
too early to tell. For now, low grade pops in the model blend will
suffice, and confidence will increase with this weekend`s forecast
over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

As an area of high pressure at the surface moves into north
northeast Oklahoma overnight the light winds across western Kansas
will become primarily southwest at 5 to 10 knots. These
southwesterly winds will then increase between 18z and 21z Monday
into the 15 to 20 knot range as surface pressure fall along the
lee of the Rockies in response to an upper level disturbance
approaching from the northwest. VFR conditions can be expected
over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  72  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  34  73  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  39  72  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  36  72  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  37  72  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
P28  37  71  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert


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