Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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635
FXUS63 KDDC 181702
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1102 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

00z NAM and the latest RAP both indicate that moisture and lift
will be on the increase early this morning east of Dodge City as
an upper level disturbance lifts north across central Kansas.
Model soundings do indicate a dry layer will be present below this
moisture and lift but this layer does gradually saturate briefly
between 12z and 18z Wednesday. This may give way to a few
sprinkles this morning. The latest forecast already appears to
have accounted for this possibility.

Cloud cover over south central Kansas should keep temperatures a
little cooler today compared to the highs yesterday. Elsewhere
will favor the current, warmer than guidance, forecast for highs
today given the 24 hour temperature chance of the 900 mb and 850mb
temperatures from 00z Wed to 00z Thursday.

Low level moisture and surface to 900mb veering winds/warm air
advection will be on the increase tonight as winds decrease to 10
mph or less and back more to the southeast after sunset. As the
moisture begins to increase across southwest Kansas and up slope
flow develops areas of stratus and fog will be possible across all
of western and south central Kansas. NAM model soundings kept the
depth of the low level moisture shallow enough that drizzle should
not be an issue. Possible exception will be in north central
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

On Thursday an upper low/trough will move east across Kansas and
Oklahoma as our next in a series of upper level waves exits the
eastern Pacific and begins to cross Oregon and California.
Improving westerly down slope flow during the day will result in
deepening the surface lee trough over eastern Colorado. 850mb to
750mb temperatures do warm several degrees from 00z Thursday to
00z Friday, however given the expected stratus and fog the latest
guidance with highs in the mid 40s may not be too far off in north
central Kansas. Across western Kansas the highs on Thursday may
end up climbing into the low to mid 50s which are a little warmer
than the current forecast.

The next/second upper level wave is forecast to cross the central
Plains on Friday and as it does a surface boundary/weak warm front
will lift north across western Kansas. Ahead of this warm front
there will be moisture and warm air advection, however any
precipitation that may develop Friday night north of this warm
front will be near and north of I-70

Our third and stronger upper level wave will then take air at the
Central and Southern Plains late this weekend. This mornings model
run from the GFS and ECMWF continue to focus the better lift north
of this upper level system near the Oklahoma border Saturday night
into early Sunday. Temperature profiles still favoring mainly rain
at the onset of precipitation Saturday night with a wintry mix
becoming possible after midnight as the precipitation begins to
taper off from west to east.

Only question with this weekend system is how far north this
precipitation will spread into western and central Kansas. GFS
keeps this system further north than the ECMWF and at this time
confidence is not high on which one is more correct. If we follow
the further north solution then there will be a chance for rain or
snow as far north as Garden City, Ness City and La Crosse. Given
the low confidence on the track of this system over the weekend
will stay close to the previous forecast for precipitation
chances. Also given the uncertainty on the track it is too early
to tell how much precipitation will fall as rain or snow.

The weekend system still looks progressive so the precipitation
that does develop Saturday night should quickly shift east early
Sunday. An upper level ridge axis will then quickly move east
across the central Rockies and with a westerly down slope flow
developing the latest guidance with highs climbing back into the
50s appears reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1009 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Main concern over the next 24 hours will be the development of low
clouds and fog for DDC, GCK, and HYS. VFR continues through 8Z.
After which time low stratus and fog will degrade flight
categories with IFR if not LIFR conditions from 8Z on. Confidence
is highest in the tempo groups for HYS and DDC with least impact
in GCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  34  48  33 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  49  30  47  28 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  52  27  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  54  32  52  29 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  50  34  46  33 /  10  10  20  10
P28  51  36  53  35 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Tatro



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