Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 011831 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS FRONT NEAR SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  A RATHER STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, SEEM LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BASICALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  THE NAMDMG5, NMM-EAST, AND ARW-EAST MODELS ALL DEPICT A
QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ABOUT 03-04Z, AND MOVING EAST AS THE LINE DEVELOPS SOUTH. THUS, I
REDUCED THE POPS PRIOR TO 03Z DRASTICALLY, THINKING THIS WILL BE
PRIMARILY AN OVERNIGHT EVENT.  WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE GREATEST
HAZARD, BUT THE MUCAPE VALUES PER THE NAM40 MODEL WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z AND REACH AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT BY
06Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY, BUT I THOUGHT THE WIND
HAZARD SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EMPHASIZED. I DID NOT CHANGE
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT, STICKING WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SYRACUSE AND
SCOTT CITY AREAS, THE MID 50S FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE,
AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 60S IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE CHANCES WILL SLIDE
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALSO.  I EXITED THE STORM
CHANCES BY 21Z, EVEN THOUGH OUR ICT NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST HANG ON TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN WE DO.
THE COLD AIR  IS COMING, AND ALL OUR WFO NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO AGREE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER AND IN THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS.  IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE LATEST, MAX TEMPS IN
THE ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S THURSDAY.  ALSO, IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY, WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 20G30MPH, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY SHY OF THE SOON TO BE
GONE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LARGE UPPER SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW, THE KHYS TAF SITE APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, BUT STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OF EITHER KGCK OR KDDC. CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MVFR RANGE, AND WINDS WILL GET QUITE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  70  46  70 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  51  69  44  70 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  48  69  45  71 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  52  70  46  72 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  52  66  42  67 /  70  40  10   0
P28  61  72  50  72 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE


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