Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 032010
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
310 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
...Updated short and long term discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
This mornings upper air analysis showed broad troughing over
western North America. A closed low at 500 millibars was digging
south through Washington and Oregon in the western portion of the
trough. The central and southern High Plains were under the
southeast quadrant of the upper trough. A shortwave trough,
evident in the analysis and in the water vapor imagery, was moving
northeast across New Mexico.
A cool moist airmass is locked in place over the central High
Plains today with overcast conditions over nearly all of the Dodge
City forecast area...except out along the Colorado border. The
showers that were over western Kansas earlier this morning had
pretty much dissipated but a fairly large area of showers and
thunderstorms continued along and south of the Oklahoma border.
The regional radar mosaic shows scattered showers and thunderstorms
over New Mexico, heading northeast.
Will continue the current trend in the forecast for increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms across southwest and
central Kansas tonight. Think that the highres ARW has a pretty
good handle on the timing and coverage of precipitation with best
chances south and west of Garden City and Dodge City early this
evening. The best chances will be shifting into central Kansas
around Wakeeney, Hays and Lacrosse around or after midnight. Most
of the precipitation should be out of central Kansas by Sunday
morning. The models show a bit of a couple jet setup over the area
Sunday morning which could keep some lingering showers around but
it appears that precipitation chances should be coming to an end
by early afternoon.
Given that temperatures have been slow to climb this afternoon,
overnight lows tonight should easily drop back into the mid and
upper 40s.The various models along with MOS output suggests that
temperatures should increase into the 60s across the area Sunday
afternoon. This may be a little optimistic but could happen if
there is at least some partial clearing in the wake of the
shortwave on Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
The early part of the extended period will see height levels
building somewhat over the middle part of the country while the
western conus upper low drops south through California. The cool
airmass over the central High Plains will gradually loosen it grip
by early next week. We should see mainly dry conditions with
slowly moderating temperatures through midweek. The latest medium
range model solutions are all suggesting that the west coast upper
low will push east through the central and southern conus around
next Thursday as westerly momentum increases over North America.
This system will provide the next significant chance for precipitation
for western Kansas. The CR_Init gives chance to slight chance pops
for the area from Wednesday through Thursday. This looks
reasonable for now but is suspect it could be subject to change
given how the models handle these closed low systems plus the fact
this is still 5-6 days out.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
VFR to occasional MVFR ceilings can be expected this afternoon
especially at Garden City and Dodge City. A few sprinkles may be
noted around Dodge City at the beginning of the period but should
not persist. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will
increase again after 00z in southwest Kansas and mainly after 06z
over central Kansas.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 45 67 45 75 / 40 20 10 10
GCK 45 65 47 75 / 40 20 10 10
EHA 47 67 50 74 / 40 10 10 10
LBL 48 68 48 76 / 40 20 10 10
HYS 45 65 47 75 / 40 30 0 10
P28 48 70 49 75 / 30 20 10 10