Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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824
FXUS63 KDDC 180854
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
254 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

...Updated Short and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

For today and tonight an upper level short wave ridge axis will
quickly move east across the Western High Plains as one upper
level trough moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley and the next,
stronger, upper level trough begins to move across the
southwestern United States. As this next approaches the Central
and Southern Rockies late today and overnight a trough of low
pressure will begin to deepen across eastern Colorado. As surface
pressures fall across eastern Colorado overnight the south to
southeasterly winds will be stronger than the past few nights.
These southerly winds will allow some low level moisture to
increase across southwest Kansas. Based on the moisture return and
wind speeds tonight the previous forecast for lows mainly in the
40s still looks on track. Also am unable to rule out some fog
development towards daybreak, especially along and east of a
Liberal to Dodge City to Hays line. Would not be surprised to have
some patchy dense fog is south central Kansas towards Sunday
morning.

As for today it will be sunny and warm once again. Less of a down
slope flow will be present today so will stay close to guidance
for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

On Sunday the upper level trough will begin to cross the Rockies
as gusty south to southeast winds across western Kansas continues
to advect higher low level moisture northwestward. Models remain
in good agreement with scattered convection developing by late day
and early evening ahead of the upper level trough in western
Kansas, especially south and east of Dodge City given the location
of a surface boundary and where the right exit region of a 250mb
jet is forecast to be late Sunday. In this area there will be
better moisture return and late day instability. 0-6km shear
greater than 50 knots are forecast at 00z Monday and CAPE values
in south central Kansas are less than 500j/kg. At this time it
appears that the area more favorable for strong to severe
thunderstorms will be south of the Oklahoma border but if few of
stronger storms do happen to develop in south central Kansas
Sunday evening they could produce some gusty winds.

This upper level trough will move into central Kansas early
Monday as a surface cold front drops south into the Texas
Panhandle and western Oklahoma. All precipitation chances by 12z
Monday should be east of the Pratt and Medicine Lodge area based
on the latest timing of the upper trough as it crosses western
Kansas. Skies will clear from west to east during the day as
subsidence develops in the wake of the upper level trough. Given
this clearing trend and the 850mb temperatures from the GFS and
ECWMF at 00z Tuesday the guidance for highs on Monday may be a
little too warm. Still with this said the highs on Monday will
still be above the seasonal normals for mid February.

The cool down on Monday will be brief given the improving
westerly down slope flow that will start to develop Monday night
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Highs climbing back
into the 70s still appear possible for Tuesday given the 850mb
temperature trends from the GFS and ECWMF.

Unseasonably warm temperatures will then continue through mid
week as westerly down slope flow improves as the next, stronger,
upper level trough begins to cross the southwest United States. As
this upper level system deepens and approaches the central
Rockies Thursday an area of low pressure a the surface will begin
to deeps across eastern Colorado. Based on the tight surface
pressure gradient and 900mb to 850mb winds forecast on Thursday
could easily have winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts. This
combined with the low afternoon relative humidity values expected
would result in increased fire danger levels across southwest
Kansas.

In addition to the increase fire danger levels Thursday there
will also be a chance for early evening thunderstorms in central
Kansas as the upper level trough moves out into West Central High
Plains.

On Friday gusty north winds of at least 25 to 35 mph can be
expected behind a cold front as it moves across western Kansas and
given the cold air advection forecast it appears that the
temperatures Friday afternoon may struggle to climb much higher
than the mid 40s. The atmosphere also appears to be cold enough
that if some precipitation does develop Thursday night into early
Friday will may fall in the form as snow in northern Kansas.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Winds at less than 10 knots overnight will shift to the southeast
at around 10 knots by early Saturday afternoon. These
southeasterly winds will then begin to gradually increase into the
10 to 15 knot range late day and early Saturday evening as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
These southeasterly winds will begin to draw more humid air into
southwest Kansas overnight and based on NAM and GFS model
soundings VFR conditions are expected through 06z Sunday. Later
shifts may need to monitor how quickly the low level moisture will
return because areas of MVFR or IFR stratus and fog are expected
to spread into southwest and north central Kansas between 06z and
12z Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  45  68  44 /   0   0  20  40
GCK  69  43  66  40 /   0   0  20  20
EHA  69  41  65  40 /   0   0  20  10
LBL  69  43  68  40 /   0   0  20  10
HYS  66  45  67  46 /   0   0  10  40
P28  69  48  68  48 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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