Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MODESTLY STRONG, A LOWER LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGING ALOFT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE NAM/GFS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
MID TEENS(C). HOWEVER, LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING MAY HINDER
CLIMBING TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F)
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL REDEVELOP
QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING ABOUT A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 50S(F) FOR THE MOST PART
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A STRONG AND HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN U.S., THEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. EARLIER ECMWF HAD A MUCH STRONGER WAVE, BUT
NOW HAS BECOME MORE LIKE THE BROADER GFS. NOT ALOT OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST WITH CURRENT SOLUTIONS, AND ANYWHERE FROM .01 TO .25
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

HIGH TEMPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY LOOK WARM AND AROUND 80 TO 85
DEGREES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS COOLING INTO THE 70S, THEN 60S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN COOL
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS FOG DISSIPATES THROUGH
THE NOON HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS BR/FG REDEVELOPS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE RIGHT NOW, BUT WILL GO AHEAD
AND INSERT IN TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  54  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  51  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  77  52  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  77  52  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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