Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 241905
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
105 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
...Updated short term section...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
A large upper level high will continue to dig into the western
United states with a ridge in place across the eastern United
States. This will place western Kansas under west to southwest
flow aloft through the short term period. Mid levels of the
atmosphere look fairly dry but as you head to the surface a trough
of low pressure becomes present across eastern Colorado. This will
allow southerly winds to continue with moisture being fed
northward into central Kansas through tomorrow. An increase in mid
to low level cloudiness is expected in this area, generally east
of Highway 283 with mostly clear skies expected elsewhere. In
addition, a surface cold front will start moving through
northwestern Kansas in the afternoon shifting winds to more of a
west to northwesterly direction. As for temperatures, lows tonight
look to range from the mid 20s across portions of west central
Kansas to upper 40s across portions of south central Kansas. Highs
tomorrow look to range from the lower 40s across portions of west
central Kansas to upper 60s across the KS/OK border.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
Early Wednesday morning another cold front will drop south back
to near the Nebraska border. This front is forecast to cross
western Kansas during the day and by late day this front is
forecast to extend from north central Kansas to extreme southeast
Colorado, as another upper level disturbance approaches the
central high plains from the west. Also on Wednesday a surface
trough will be crossing western Kansas. This surface trough will
be located ahead of the southward moving cold front. As this
boundary moves east the low level moisture that returned to
portions western Kansas Tuesday night will get shunted east into
central Kansas. Highs on Wednesday should have no problem
rebounding back into at least the mid to upper 60s south of the
cold front. Near the Oklahoma border highs around 70 will not be
out of the question. North of this cold front will keep afternoon
highs 5 to near 10F cooler.
Wednesday night precipitation chances will begin to improve,
especially near and east of these two surface boundaries given the
moisture return and warm air advection developing ahead of the
approaching upper level disturbance. North of these boundaries
isentropic lift will be improving, especially after 06z Thursday
so precipitation here may hold off until midnight or a little
later. At this time some dependencies exists between models on
magnitude of the lift north of this boundary but even given this
it does appear some light precipitation will be possible.
At this time given the temperature profiles precipitation type
appears to support mainly rain. the exception will be towards 12z
Thursday in north central and west central Kansas. in this area as
temperatures fall freezing rain and sleet look more likely.
Widespread precipitation is then expected to develop across all
of western Kansas early Thursday and then continue through
Thursday night as moisture and 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis
develops and then very slowly sinks south across western Kansas.
Boundary layer temperatures are expected to be cooling through the
day on Thursday which will result in the freezing and frozen
precipitation to spread south and become more widespread.
Given the latest temperature profiles Thursday and Thursday night
freezing rain and sleet are expected to over spread all of western
and south central Kansas late Thursday and early Thursday night.
Based the the latest top down approach an extended period of
freezing or frozen precipitation is expected southeast of a Hays
to Liberal line. In this area ice accumulations are expected. At
this time there still uncertainty on how much ice will accumulate
but it does appear that sufficient ice accumulations will exist to
cause some travel problems. Given this will issue an special
Friday and Friday night some light snow will still be possible
but lift will briefly weakens as a surface ridge axis crosses
western Kansas.. Towards daybreak on Saturday a southeasterly
upslope flow will begin to develop across western Kansas and
isentropic lift will be improving in the i290 to i305 level. Upper
level dynamics will also be improving early this weekend based on
the latest track of the next upper level wave which will be
located near the left exit region of a 250mb jet.
The coldest day of the week will be on Friday when highs that day
are expected to be around 30 degrees. Saturday will be a little
warmer but through the weekend period highs are expected to be
mainly in the 30s. Temperatures may approach 40 degrees in a few
locations on Sunday in far southwest. Kansas.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight with
increasing high clouds overnight. Winds will generally be from
just west of a southerly direction around 12 knots this afternoon
shifting to the southeast around 8 knots overnight.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 36 64 38 39 / 0 10 40 70
GCK 29 63 33 33 / 0 10 30 60
EHA 34 68 33 39 / 0 10 10 40
LBL 33 68 39 42 / 0 10 30 60
HYS 35 58 34 34 / 10 10 50 60
P28 47 66 50 51 / 10 10 70 90