Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201227
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
727 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A broad 500 millibar trough was indicated on this evenings upper air
analysis over the western and southwest states. Ahead of the trough,
southwesterly flow extended from New Mexico and west Texas into
Kansas. Weak disturbances embedded in the flow were moving up into
the central Plains early this morning and bringing a few areas of
scattered light rain showers into western Kansas. The cold front
that moved into the central High Plains on Saturday had become
stationary from eastern Nebraska through northwest Kansas to a weak
low pressure center over southeast Colorado.

The main upper trough is expected to move into the central High
Plains by this evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
be increasing during the day today as the system approaches.
Scattered showers associated with the aforementioned weak
disturbances should work northward into south central Kansas this
morning. As the atmosphere continues to destabilize through the day,
we should see showers and thunderstorms increasing again along the
frontal boundary. Convection could also develop across far southwest
Kansas this afternoon as the main upper trough moves in. Model
soundings show a fairly moist profile developing through the day
with CAPE values generally less than 500 j/kg. Not expecting any
significant storms but some decent rainfall amounts on the order of
a quarter to half inch could occur with the thunderstorms.

The upper trough continues to move east tonight and should be over
eastern Kansas by Monday morning. The current forecast trend of
decreasing precipitation chances tonight looks good.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Models show the shortwave trough exiting the area on Monday, as
surface high pressure settles southward from the North Plains under
the advancing mid level ridge. This pattern will result breezy
northeast surface winds eventually veering southeast by Monday
night. The relative weak cold advection pattern should at least
limit the diurnal warming in the afternoon. Much warmer than normal
conditions are expected however by Tuesday and especially on
Wednesday as a dryline moves into the area with strong vertical
mixing potential. The upper wave pattern across the region suggest
very windy conditions on Wednesday well into the wind advisory
criteria range for the entire area, from southwest winds and first
and then with a cold front crashing through western Kansas as the
dynamic low moves through the Northern Plains. Additionally the
dryline should be the focus for deep moist convection development
in the late afternoon, with rapidly moving thunderstorms. Large
scale lift could prolong convective activity in the central Kansas
or even on a retreating dryline later into the late afternoon and
evening hours. The remainder of the week will probably bring flat
upper ridging across the high plains while another wave moves
onshore of the west coast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 726 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

11-3.9 micron satellite and METAR imagery combination was showing
VFR altostratus across the area. Southerly winds will increase
eventually be taken over by north winds late in the day as the
surface low develops and shifts eastward. Isentropic lift will aid
in development of showers and scattered thunderstorms by late day,
mainly in the IFR/MVFR category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  53  77  46 /  60  50  10   0
GCK  73  51  76  43 /  60  50   0   0
EHA  72  49  76  44 /  50  20  10   0
LBL  74  51  78  45 /  50  50   0   0
HYS  75  56  77  43 /  60  60  10   0
P28  75  56  77  48 /  50  50  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell






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