Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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756
FXUS63 KDDC 211113
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
613 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Thunderstorms are likely across the Central Plains later today as an
upper level trough moves quickly across the Central and Southern
Rockies into the Western High Plains. Short range models are in fair
agreement projecting an attendant cold front entering western Kansas
mid to late morning and quickly pushing into central Kansas by early
afternoon. Meanwhile, a prevailing return flow will continue to advect
moisture into Kansas ahead of the approaching front, pushing surface
dewpoints well into the lower to mid 60s(F) as far north as south
central Kansas. This will provide sufficient instability for
thunderstorm development with MUCAPE values upward of 1000 J/kg
ahead of the boundary. However, short range model soundings indicate
a significant cap in place with a noted warm layer around H7. As a
result, thunderstorm development will likely be tied into the forcing
provided by the boundary as it pushes into higher instability toward
early to mid afternoon. Based on the projected timing of the front,
thunderstorms are expected to be limited generally to south central
Kansas. Favorable shear profiles and a reasonable +70kt jet may
be enough to support strong to marginally severe storms briefly
before quickly moving off to the northeast.

More seasonable temperatures are likely today as much cooler air
spills southward into western Kansas in wake of the aforementioned
strong cold front pushing through the area. Considering the front
will move through west central Kansas around to a little after
daybreak, expect highs only up into the 60s(F) there with highs
well up into the 70s(F) in south central Kansas. Should see lows
down into the 30s(F) in west central Kansas tonight with the 40s(F)
further east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Dry conditions are likely Sunday as a drier air mass already in
place across western Kansas is reinforced by a westerly downslope
flow through the high plains. The quiet pattern will continue
through the middle part of next week as yet another cold front
movex through the Western High Plains early Monday, bringing with
it another surge of drier air into western Kansas. The downslope
flow will help temperatures rebound somewhat Sunday as warmer air
is drawn into western Kansas, raising H85 temperatures generally
into the mid to upper teens(C). Highs can be expected to reach up
into the lower to mid 70s(F) Sunday afternoon. A cold front moving
through western Kansas early next week will once again drop
temperatures closer to seasonal levels by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Models remain in good agreement with a surface cold front
crossing all four TAF sites between daybreak and 18z Sunday. As
this frontal boundary passes the winds will shift to the north
northwest and increase into the 15 to 20 knot range. These gusty
north to northwest winds will continue through late day and then
begin to decrease as an area of high pressure at the surface
starts to build into western Kansas. Wind speeds are expected to
fall back to less than 10 knots by 03z sunday. Models soundings
indicating VFR conditions today and tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  38  71  44 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  65  34  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  65  35  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  68  35  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  68  35  70  44 /  10   0   0   0
P28  75  42  72  44 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for KSZ030-
043>045-061>063-074>076.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert



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