Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 080527
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1127 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

An upper level disturbance that was located across the Northern
Plains at 12z Sunday will quickly move southeast across the
Central Plains through early this evening. As this upper level
system moves into the mid Mississippi valley overnight an upper
level ridge axis will begin to build slowly east into the western
United States. Subsidence developing in the wake of the upper
level trough overnight will yield clear/clearing skies, however
based on the expected winds overnight and the temperatures
forecast in the mixed layer near the surface will continue to
favor lows mainly in the mid 20s. Lighter wind speeds are expected
near the Colorado border overnight so lows will be cooler across
far western Kansas, especially west/northwest of Garden City.

Very Windy conditions will return to western Kansas during the
day on Monday based on the expected mean winds in the mixed layer
between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. At this time based on the NAM
and GFS the stronger winds will be located east of a Garden City
to Liberal Line. In this area sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph will
be possible at times, especially if the GFS verifies. As for
temperatures...based on the mixing depth late day along with the
temperatures at the level at 00z Tuesday the highs are expected to
vary from the mid to upper 30s in north central Kansas to the
upper 40s to near 50 in far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A warming trend can then be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
given the improving downslope flow forecast across far western
Kansas. Across southwest Kansas temperatures by Wednesday
afternoon should warm into the upper 60s to near 70 based on the
warming trend from the GFS in the 900mb to 850mb level.
Temperatures will also warm in north central and south central
Kansas but not as much with highs expected range from 50 to 55.

A northwest flow will persist across the Central Plains and
Northern Plains late week as an upper level ridge axis slowly
moves east across the western United States. A subtle upper level
disturbance embedded in this persistent northwesterly flow will
cross the central plains on Thursday and this will bring a weak
surface boundary back across western Kansas late week. Behind this
front some cooler air will return, but at this time it appears
what cooling that does occur on Thursday will be minor and mainly
confined to north central Kansas. Another front will move across
western Kansas over the weekend period as another upper level
disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Very strong northwest winds will occur again during the late
morning through afternoon hours Monday. Expect sustained winds in
the 25 to 30 knot range with gusts in the 35 to 40 knot range,
especially at DDC and HYS terminals. The continued downslope
momentum from the northwest winds will prevent development of
ceiling and visibility restriction, so VFR is forecast through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  43  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  44  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  48  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25  48  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  38  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  45  26  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid



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