Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AND AND HOT AIR
WILL DRIVE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, HOWEVER THE BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD MITIGATE MARGINALLY
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH HE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST  AREA AFTER  THIS AFTERNOON  AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AT THIS TIME ARE
FAVORING WIDELY SCATTERED DISCREET CELLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH
LITTLE OVERALL PROPAGATION. HOWEVER AS THE EVENING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
UPSLOPE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONVECTION  ROLLS OUT OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AN NORTHEAST  NEW MEXICO INTO9
THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLES AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE EASTERLY
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES IN THE FAR WEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANTBREAK
FROM AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION COMES AROUND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER HIGHS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY, GENERALLY IN THE
80S, EVEN LOW 80S IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES . NOT MUCH OF A REBOUND
TOWARD HOTTER TEMPERATURES SEEMS TO OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH
FORECAST TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST
HIGHS OF MID 90S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WAS PREVIOUSLY NOTED, THE CONVECTION
CHANCES AR MINIMAL OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE LARGE UPPER VORTEX
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN CANADA
DURING THIS PERIOD, ALLOWING A SLIGHT RETROGRADE OF THE UPPER HIGH
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN
A MORE BROAD NORTHWEST SUBSIDENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10-13 KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KDDC/KGCK AFTER 03Z
AS WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOP. ASIDE FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  68  86  64 /  20  60  50  40
GCK  89  65  82  63 /  10  60  50  30
EHA  90  66  79  65 /  10  60  50  40
LBL  91  68  83  66 /  20  60  50  40
HYS  91  67  86  62 /  10  30  20  20
P28  99  74  89  67 /  30  60  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH



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