Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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256
FXUS63 KDDC 220718
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
118 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 115 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Snow and blowing snow conditions will linger across central Kansas
through mid to late morning as the core of the upper level system
across eastern Kansas lifts northeast through the Central Plains,
effectively bringing an end to precip chances across western Kansas
this afternoon through the remainder of the period. Strong northwest
winds will gradually subside through this afternoon and evening as
a deepening surface low shifts east-northeast out of eastern Kansas,
in turn relaxing the pressure gradient across western Kansas. Limited
to elevated fire weather conditions will exist this afternoon due in
part to the gusty northwest winds and lowering relative humidity.

Cold air surging into western Kansas today will result in much
lower high temperatures today. Expect highs only into the 30s(F)
across central Kansas this afternoon, especially with cloud cover
holding on the longest here. Highs in the 40s(F) are more likely
further south and southwest. Look for lows down into the teens(F)
across west central Kansas to the 20s(F) in south central Kansas
under mostly skies with much lighter winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The storm will be tapering off by noon tomorrow. Most of the guidance
is warm across the northern zones. Went with cooler guidance, where
the heavier snowfall is expected. These values could end up too warm
if the snow event evolves as anticipated. Beyond this, high pressure
will build in Tuesday with much more tranquil conditions and less wind.
A significant warm up is expected Thursday with a downslope southwest
wind pattern. The EC shows a large amplitude trof swinging out across
the Northern Plains Friday. Colder air can be expected with this. The
overall progressive nature of this second system, along with the northern
extent of the trof does not bode well with getting significant precip
across southwest Kansas. Most of the frontal precipitation could easily
be east of the forecast area. For the weekend, a dry N to NW upper
air pattern is expected with seasonal surface temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

A strong winter storm will move eastward across the Western High
Plains into the Central Plains overnight. Snow and blowing snow
conditions are likely in the vicinity of KHYS generally after 03Z
resulting in IFR cigs/vsbys through mid to late morning. Although
to a lesser degree, KGCK and KDDC will be effected with MVFR cigs
and possible MVFR vsbys due to snow and blowing snow conditions.
VFR conditions will return to all TAF sites by early to mid
afternoon Monday. A strengthening surface low will move east-
northeast out of eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes Region
through this afternoon. As a result, strong northwest winds 30 to
40kt will persist across western Kansas overnight with gusts
upward of 50kt toward daybreak. The winds will then gradually
subside through late Monday afternoon as the surface low moves
out of eastern Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  22  49  21 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  40  20  46  19 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  47  21  48  20 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  45  20  49  19 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  35  20  43  19 /  90   0   0   0
P28  43  24  51  23 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
KSZ043>046-061>066.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for KSZ030-031.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson



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