Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Outside of chances for elevated shower and thunderstorms overnight
or very early tomorrow, the weather pattern remains rather
uneventful. A broad surface high pressure will continue to influence
the region over the weekend. The few showers that occurred earlier
this morning may have been aided by the location of the right
entrance upper jet, and elevated instability. NAM/WRF was continuing
with the trend of early afternoon convection across the western
counties and spreading eastward, but this may be an overdone response
to the mid level instability field. Still a few elevated showers
can`t be ruled out as we head forward late this afternoon. The
better chance for convection appears, again in the southern and
western counties later in the day Sunday once destabilization
occurs. Better southerly boundary layer moisture/theta-e transport
should favor at least some surface cape near our area in the high
Plains with any potential storms being able to develop east into the
steep mid level lapse rates. Still a poor environment for severe
weather potential and will probably remain dry. Temperatures Sunday
will reflect that of today, a good 10 or more degrees below normal
highs for late June.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

NAM/WRF develops convective precipitation along a sfc/850 hPA
stationary front Monday evening across west central Kansas in what
should be a good severe environment bulk shear and CAPE-wise. GFS
is more broad based with it`s precipitation over the central and
southern High Plains warm sector. Temperatures remains at or near
normal through midweek before breaking out above normals as the
northwesterly flow aloft pattern breaks down in favor of
westerlies and the return of the dryline.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

VFR will continue at the airports through this TAF cycle. Mid
layer cloud decks around 7-9k ft AGL continue to be very
persistent along and south of a GCK-DDC line on satellite imagery.
Model soundings and consensus of short term models agree this
will not change much through Sunday, with overcast altocumulus or
altostratus persisting near 7k ft. After 21z Sun, cigs lower some
more to near 4k ft AGL at GCK and LBL. Kept DDC/GCK TAFs dry
through Sunday. The exception will be LBL, where NAM model shows
convection in the TX panhandle through much of Sunday, close
enough to warrant VCTS/CB. NAM also has TSRA near/just NE of HYS
by 00z Monday. A modest increase in S/SW winds at DDC/GCK/LBL
after 15z, averaging 10-15 kts, backing more SEly after 21z. Winds
expected to stay more NEly at HYS at similar speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  80  61  84 /  10  20  20  20
GCK  56  78  59  84 /  20  20  30  20
EHA  57  75  60  84 /  40  30  40  30
LBL  60  77  61  84 /  30  20  30  30
HYS  56  78  59  82 /  10  30  30  30
P28  60  84  62  85 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner


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