000
FXUS63 KDDC 200740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OSCILLATING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH
IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A NARROW
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS STREAMING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH A SECONDARY LOW IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA, THEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. IR
SATELLITE DEPICTS A VERY SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WICHITA, KS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF ABILENE,
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW REMAINING
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM
WILL HELP SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA
WHILE THE SMALLER SHORTWAVE BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, THE
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, YET STILL CLIMB
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS KEEPING MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IN
PLACE. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE, ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS, SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH THE SURFACE
LOW IN NORTHWEST TEXAS, THIS WILL CREATE A ZONE OF INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE GENERALLY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEST-NORTHWEST
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. COMBINED WITH
THE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO, NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

IN THE MEANTIME, AS COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES
TO ENFORCE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS POINT TO H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TO MID DAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH CAPE VALUES UP NEAR 500 J/KG, A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY
WITH POOR SHEAR PROFILES AND THE LOWER INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN A
MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS HELPS DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM
YESTERDAY WITH AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE 15C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 70S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 80F POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE, EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F)
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOWER 50S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ANOTHER BUSY DAY WITH A TORNADO WATCH OUT TIL 10 PM FOR OUR EASTERN
3 MOST COUNTIES.  PROBLEMS WITH GFE ONLY COMPOUNDED THE BUSY DAY.
THE EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE SAME, WITH LIMITED TIME TO
ANALISE THE DATA.  THE 3 EAST COUNTIES OF BARBER,  PRATT AND
STAFFORD WILL LIKELY, IF ANY, HAVE ONLY SEVERE HAIL ON THE SMALL
SIDE.  THE WINDS BY THIS TIME ARE NEARLY STACKED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  HOWEVER, SINCE THE CURRENT WATCH WAS LINKED TO AREAS TO
THE EAST, A TORNADO WATCH WAS DECIDED ON.

STEPPING INTO THE EXTENDED, THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING
NORTH AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WHILE DIP INTO
THE I-70 AREA. LOW END 20 POPS EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKEENEY
AND HAYS AREA.  A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  LOW 20
PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN LOW SWEEPS THROUGH DODGE`S AREA.  THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL BASICALLY KEEP 30 TO 45 PERCENT POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY WILL
STILL HAVE 20 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY.  IF I HAD TO PICK ONE DAY WHEN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IS, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GIVE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.  THERE COULD EVEN
BEEN SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY, WITH BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE FRONT SINKING IN, OR BACKING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST.  TEMPERATURES DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUSLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS
FOR WINDS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WHILE SLOWLY INCREASING UP TO AROUND 10 TO 15KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  48  77  52 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  76  47  75  50 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  75  47  77  51 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  77  47  79  52 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  77  47  72  51 /  20  20  10  10
P28  80  52  80  55 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON