Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 281648
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1148 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH NEAR 70,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY, ALONG WITH
LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY, WITH SOME MID 80S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEK AND
ALL OF THE RAIN WE HAVE HAD THIS SPRING WILL DISCOURAGE
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING INTO THE 90S DUE TO ENHANCED
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND PERSIST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WITH
THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ONLY ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND SOME OF THESE COULD VENTURE INTO
FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, ALONG WITH A SHARPER LEE TROUGH AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN ALL THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SO THAT SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE FAR TO THE NORTH,
TORNADIC ACTIVITY AND GIANT HAIL ARE NOT LIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK
AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IF THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK, THEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S. GIVEN THE LEE TROUGHING AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, LOWS WILL BE WARM
IN THE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR
20 KNOT RANGE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALL
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN FALL BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER SUNSET. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
DDC AND GCK BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, AND NAM IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND GCK
AND DDC BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. AT HYS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  60  79  54 /  50  70  40  40
GCK  83  57  78  53 /  60  70  40  40
EHA  82  55  77  53 /  50  50  40  50
LBL  82  58  78  55 /  60  60  40  40
HYS  79  59  78  53 /  40  50  40  40
P28  80  63  80  58 /  80  50  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.