Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260607

National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1207 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

...Updated for aviation discussion...


The upper level low will shift into the Central Rockies tonight
and sit there through the short term period. Weak impulses will
eject around its periphery and head to our area enhancing lift.
Mid to upper level moisture will increase tonight creating a cloud
deck above western Kansas. Towards the surface, an area of low
pressure located across eastern Colorado will intensify with an
associated cold front pushing south into portions of Kansas
tonight and through most of our area by sunrise tomorrow. Moist
southerly winds will feed into central Kansas as this boundary
approaches leading to low stratus or possibly fog in some places.
Northerly winds are anticipated behind this front with much cooler
air. There is a slight chance of light rain showers around
midnight across central and south central Kansas. However, most
precipitation should hold off until after midnight. Rain chances
increase and spread across the remainder of the CWA after
midnight, otherwise mostly cloudy skies will be visible.
Temperatures across west central Kansas look to dip at or below
freezing towards sunrise leading to the chance of freezing
rain/sleet/snow or a combination of these elements. Lows tonight
look to range from the upper 20s across west central Kansas to mid
50s across south central Kansas.

Precipitation chances continue into tomorrow along the
aforementioned cold front as well as farther north where mid level
frontogenesis and isentropic lift will be present. The best chance
for precipitation will be across south central Kansas, but a good
chance will also be present across the remainder of the forecast
area throughout the day. Strong cold air advection will be felt
behind the cold front tomorrow leading to steady or falling
temperatures throughout the day. The only exception to this will
be across portions of south central Kansas where the temp may
increase a few degrees in the morning. Highs in most places will
be around midnight and range from the upper 20s across west
central Kansas to upper 50s across south central Kansas.
Precipitation type has been the main challenge for this forecast
as a warm tongue is present above the surface. During the morning
hours, rain is expected across south central Kansas and along the
KS/OK border. The remainder of the CWA is anticipated to observe a
wide range of precip types from rain, freezing rain, sleet, to
snow. Light accumulations of snow will be possible across west
central Kansas with some accumulating ice across this same area as
well as portions of western Kansas and the I-70 corridor around
Hays. This mix of precipitation types look to shift southeastward
in the afternoon. Up to an inch of snow will be possible across
west central Kansas in the afternoon with over a tenth of an inch
of ice expected across eastern portions of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)

The storm system mentioned in the short term will continue to
wreak havoc across the CWA tomorrow night into Friday with snow
showers continuing across west and west central Kansas and
freezing rain across central and south central Kansas. A mix of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain will be expected in between these
two areas. Most of the CWA should change over to snow by Friday
afternoon with the exception of portions of south central Kansas
where freezing rain or sleet will remain be possible. The chance
of wintry precipitation will continue through the weekend as more
upper level impulses move around the periphery of the upper level
low over the Central Rockies. Winds will generally be from a
northerly direction through at least Saturday as high pressure
builds into the area then shift to more of an easterly direction
Saturday night into Sunday as the dome of high pressure treks to
the east. Skies look to be mostly cloudy through the weekend. Snow
totals up to 5 inches will be possible through the end of this
weekend with over a quarter inch of ice east of a line from
Liberal to Great Bend. The upper level low then moves over the
Plains during the beginning of next week bringing decreased
cloudiness, drier conditions, and warmer temperatures. Lows
ranging from the upper teens across far western Kansas to mid 20s
across central and south central Kansas are anticipated through
Sunday morning then increase into the 20s early next week. Highs
are forecasted to only reach into the upper 20s Friday and
Saturday then rebound into the 30s Sunday and Monday. Highs in the
lower 40s will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday.



A cold front has passed the TAF sites and winds will be north to
north-northeasterly at 15 kts through the period. Low to mid level
warm advection will increase ahead of an upper level storm system,
resuting in widespread precipitation that will transition from
rain to freezing rain to sleet and freezing drizzle. CIGS will
drop to IFR/LIFR and remain there.


DDC  35  23  25  22 /  90  70  60  60
GCK  31  21  24  20 /  70  60  50  40
EHA  32  21  24  18 /  70  60  60  50
LBL  34  22  25  21 /  70  70  70  50
HYS  33  22  25  21 /  70  70  30  20
P28  45  26  28  26 / 100  80  70  50


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight
for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064-074>077-084-085.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Friday for KSZ065-066-078>081-086>090.



SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
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