Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210001
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
601 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Vigorous shortwave moving across SW KS this afternoon. Have
expanded pop grids for rain showers, and included thunder, given
CAMs and modest instability. Coverage will favor areas along and
north of U.S. Highway 50.

Cloud ceilings are expected to lift this evening, as subsidence
arrives behind the departing shortwave. With the sky clearing
briefly for several hours through Saturday morning, models hint at
the potential for patchy radiational fog. Included patchy areas of
fog in the grids, but confidence is not as high as previous
nights. Dry air advection will allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 20s at many locales by sunrise Saturday.

Saturday...Only a small break of partial clearing in the morning,
before the next shortwave quickly approaches during the afternoon.
Clouds will be increasing and lowering during the afternoon.
Despite this, atmosphere remains mild, with afternoon temperatures
in the lower to mid 50s. Winds will back to SE/E and increase
some after noon, in response to strong cyclogenesis in the
northern Texas panhandle by 6 pm. Most of Saturday will be dry,
but consensus of model guidance begins to spread light rain into
the SW zones during the afternoon. As such, increased pop grids to
the chance category for light rain, from Elkhart to Hugoton to
Liberal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Strong cyclone will pass just south of SW KS Saturday night, close
enough to spread its deformation precipitation into the southern
counties, mainly along and south of U.S. Highway 50. Increased
pop grids into the likely category for these zones, with an
emphasis on Saturday evening. 12z ECMWF generates about .10-.20
inch of QPF across the southern CWA Saturday night, and this was
used as a guide for the grids. The vast majority of this
precipitation will take the form of rain, with perhaps a mix of
some wet snowflakes near the end. Impacts are expected to be
minimal, and with the very progressive nature of this cyclone,
precipitation will be wrapping up quickly by sunrise Sunday.

Sunday...Sunny and dry, with breezy NW winds. NW winds will
average 15-30 mph with higher gusts behind the departing cyclone,
but with no cold air advection, temperatures will change little
with lower 50s common Sunday afternoon. Very few clouds by Sunday
afternoon as dry subsident NW flow takes over, and ridging builds
in from the west.

Monday...The warmest day of the forecast. An expansive trough digs
across western North America, with strong leeside troughing and
cyclogenesis, and strong downslope Monday afternoon. Forecasting
upper 50s and lower 60s, but this is likely not warm enough. In
particular, ECMWF bias-corrected guidance supports lower 70s SW
of Dodge City, where 850 mb temps warm to +16C, and downslope
components are enhanced south of the eastern Colorado surface low.

Tuesday...The jury is still out with regards to the intense storm
system expected on the plains early next week. Have noticed the
12z ECMWF has offered a slower and further south solution, driving
a strong cold front through Kansas Tuesday morning, with
wraparound snow impacting the northern zones on Tuesday. GFS
solutions are much weaker and much further north, keeping SW KS dry.
Blended solutions are dry and were maintained pending better model
agreement.

Regardless of this cyclone`s track, much colder weather is coming
the middle of next week. Grids are likely too warm, and are above
raw GFS/ECMWF guidance. That said, this does not appear to be a
direct shot of arctic air, more like just typical January cold.
Forecast is dry Wednesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

An upper level disturbance will move off to the east this evening
and help push a weak cold front through the TAF sites. A strong
upper level disturbance is expected to approach the southern high
plains by the end of the period, resulting in a wind shift to the
southeast by 18z. Any shower activity will probably be south of
the TAF sites near the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  54  32  52 /  20  10  60   0
GCK  26  51  29  51 /  20  10  30   0
EHA  27  52  28  50 /  10  30  50   0
LBL  28  54  30  53 /  10  30  70   0
HYS  31  52  32  50 /  20   0   0   0
P28  34  58  37  55 /  10  10  60   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Finch


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