Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251755
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS
AGAIN TONIGHT AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
H5 VORT MAXIMA EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN VICINITY OF THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE THEN PROJECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AMPLE INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND FAVORABLE ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL HEIGHTEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS,
PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL FAVOR
THE STRONGER STORMS.

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS
DOWN INTO THE 70S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS
AFFECTED BY STORMS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ENHANCE WARM
AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL UP INTO THE
90S(F) WITH NEAR 100F POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FIRST ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MIDNIGHT. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM COLORADO IN THE EVENING TO EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SITS
AROUND THE KS/CO BORDER. MEANWHILE, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THEN
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AS IT HELPS PUSH DOWN A SURFACE FRONT, THEN A BETTER
CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH
AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. HIGH
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, AND THIS IS WHERE
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. LOWS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE 70S WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90
DEGREES THURSDAY THEN LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY. LOWS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD LOOK TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID TO LATE
EVENING, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KGCK. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
KHYS AND KDDC. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15KT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR
AND ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71 100  72 /  20  50  20  20
GCK  97  69  99  71 /  30  50  40  40
EHA  98  69  99  70 /  30  50  20  20
LBL  99  71 100  72 /  20  40  20  20
HYS  97  72  99  72 /  50  50  30  40
P28 100  75 101  75 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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