Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 020556
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1256 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
...Updated for aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Short range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure
shifting eastward across the Western High Plains tonight and further
east into the Central Plains Friday. Although the ridge axis will be
situated generally across extreme western Kansas late tonight, a
prevailing southeasterly upslope flow up next to a near stationary
frontal boundary extending from eastern Colorado southward into the
Texas panhandle, may provide enough lift to support the development
of drizzle or light rain toward daybreak Friday morning. Aiding
the potential for light precip will be an increasingly difluent
flow aloft as the upper level trough out west approaches and a
+80kt upper level jet streams east out of the Colorado Rockies
into the high plains.
Low temperatures will be similar to the night previous with
little change to the general air mass across western Kansas, not
to mention increasing cloud cover expected again. Look for lows
back down into the 50s(F) across central and southwest Kansas.
Increased clouds will likely linger through at least mid day
Friday keeping high temperatures down once again. Highs are
expected only up into the 60s(F) generally with a few upper 50s(F)
possible where clouds are slow to lift/erode.
.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Precip chances pick up a little early Saturday morning as medium
range models indicate the southwest flow aloft becoming more
difluent across the Western High Plains as an upper level trough is
projected to push east across the Central and Southern Rockies. As
the upper level system approaches, a prevailing southeasterly
upslope flow across western Kansas and a near stationary frontal
boundary extending from extreme eastern Colorado southward into the
Texas panhandle will provide increased lift/forcing as a series of
H5 vort maxima begin to eject out of the Rockies. Although the flow
aloft will be less than robust, it will be strong enough to add
dynamic support in the upper levels. Based on NAM/GFS model
soundings, vertical profiles will be fairly saturated in the lower
levels with very little CAPE in the mid/upper levels. As a result,
the primary mode for any precip will be light to moderate rain with
an outside shot for a few rumbles of thunder.
Conditions are expected to dry out a bit little Sunday as the
GFS/ECMWF show the upper level shortwave lifting northward into the
Northern Plains while upper level ridging develops across the
Central Plains. The drier pattern is expected to continue through
mid week as ridging aloft remains across the Central Plains.
Below normal temperatures are likely Saturday as areas of precip and
increased cloud cover continue to limit any warming. Highs are only
expected up into the 50s(F) Saturday afternoon with near 60F
possible in areas closer to the Oklahoma border. A warming trend
begins Sunday and continues through mid week as the aforementioned
upper level ridging builds across the Central Plains. Temperatures
may climb well above normal by Tuesday.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
Mid level moisture will persist through the TAF period as an upper
level trough approaches from the west. Advection of drier low
level air from the southeast should prevent the formation of low
CIGS. VFR conditions will persist and scattered rain showers can`t
be ruled out.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 46 57 46 67 / 60 60 30 10
GCK 45 57 45 67 / 60 40 30 10
EHA 48 60 46 68 / 50 30 20 10
LBL 47 61 47 69 / 60 50 30 10
HYS 46 55 45 65 / 50 60 30 10
P28 49 60 48 68 / 50 50 30 10