000
FXUS63 KDDC 140507
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1207 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

THE 13.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED STRONG FLOW ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
AMERICA. THE STRONGEST JET LEVEL WINDS WERE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH MAGNITUDES AROUND 140 KT. ANOTHER RELATIVELY
STRONG JET STREAK WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AT ~120 KT. AT 500
HPA, A TROF WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, A RIDGE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERTURBATION ACROSS MEXICO, AND
THEN A DEEP AND COLD TROF LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA. AT 700 HPA, A WARM
PLUME WAS ADVECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL VALUES UP 7 DEG C
AT KDDC FROM 1 DEG C IN 24 HOURS. AT 850 HPA, A WARM/DOWNSLOPE PLUME
WAS NOTED FROM KAMA TO KLBF. AT THE SFC, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. RICH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WAS CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

TONIGHT:

TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. THIS IS A RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PD. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS UP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
RANGE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS A BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE CONTINUES
ACROSS KANSAS WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE THRU THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

TOMORROW:

"HOT" TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ONCE
AGAIN. DEEP MIXING TO ABOUT 600 HPA WEST AND TO 650 HPA EAST WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS I-70 TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED VERY LITTLE AS THE CURRENT
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID LOOKS ON TARGET IN COMPARING WITH 12Z NWP DATA.
THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, WHICH IS MENTIONED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW. THE NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE HIGHER COLORADO TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THIS WILL BE WELL
WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS
REQUIRED IN THE GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM WILL BE
STRONGEST...AND THUS A POTENTIALLY LARGER AREA OF DEEPLY MIXED, HOT
AIR ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. OTHERWISE...ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S...AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE
LATEST 12Z VERSION OF THE ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS 100
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
DRYLINE.

IN THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT...HAVE DECIDED TO TEMPER THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
COUNTIES WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (15 TO 20) INSTEAD OF THE
CHANCE 30 POPS ACROSS BARBER AND PRATT COUNTIES.  A SUBTROPICAL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MEXICO WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL INDUCE A GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO AID
IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL RESIDE
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A HAYS TO ASHLAND LINE. ANOTHER AREA TO
WATCH WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL BE OUT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO AS ANOTHER SMALLER/WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
HIGH PLAINS.  THE GFS SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND IS
LIKELY OVERDONE...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF DRY FORECAST MAY BE
A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC GIVEN THE SMALL SCALE ENHANCEMENT IN LIFT AND
SOME POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL MOMENTUM (ENHANCED INFLOW INTO
CONVECTION).

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN A PERSISTENT DIURNAL
FEATURE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED DRYLINE STORM EACH DAY
DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND STRONG INSOLATION.  ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS WILL LIKELY PERISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN ABSENCE OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.  THE DRYLINE ON FRIDAY MAY BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO CONVECT AS HOT ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER AIR OFF THE NEW
MEXICO PLATEAU AND SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF NORTHERN MEXICO REALLY
CAPS THINGS WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC
MOMENTUM AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH.  POPS WERE LOWERED DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED
STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION AS A STRONG UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENTERS
THE PICTURE AND INDUCES A 995MB SURFACE LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS
BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
GIVEN THE INCREASED LARGER SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO PROMOTE
SEVERE LOCAL STORMS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A HIGH QUANTITY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH ENOUGH WIND SHEAR TO
PROMOTE ROBUST SUPERCELL STORMS.  THE TORNADO THREAT IS REALLY
UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY BEING A 5 DAY FORECAST...BUT IS SOMETHING
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY GIVEN LOWER TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS IN THE PICTURE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AROUND
SUNSET.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MOST LIKELY SHIFTS EAST
OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION...BUT WILL STILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES GIVEN TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS FORECAST RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, ALONG WITH HOT AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 15Z AND
BLOW AT 18G28 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS A RESULT OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING. WINDS LOOK WEAKER NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER CLOSER TO THE SFC LEE TROF. A SWEET SPOT WITH CRITERIA RH`S AND
CRITERIA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL FIRE WEATHER ZONES AND
THE WATCH WAS EXTENDED EASTWARDS. LEFT AS A WATCH AS 00Z MODELS COULD
SUGGEST WEAKER WINDS. RH`S LOOK TO BE NO PROBLEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  93  59  84 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  58  95  57  83 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  59  91  55  83 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  58  92  56  85 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  57  97  58  81 /   0  10  10  20
P28  60  92  62  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043>045-062>064-075>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN