Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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027
FXUS63 KDDC 152331
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
531 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Beautiful, quiet weather. Not much else to say. Other than an
occasional wisp of cirrus, the sky will be clear through
Thursday. Winds will be light, 10 mph or less, and maintain a SWly
downslope component that will encourage a warming trend. Lows
tonight again several degrees above normal, in the lower 30s.
Atmosphere warms strongly Thursday, with 850 mb temperatures
climbing to near +14C. With full sunshine and downslope, lower 70s
will be common Thursday afternoon, with the warmest locales near
75.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

This entire long term forecast period will feature unseasonably
mild temperatures, all the way through next Wednesday. Both high
and low temperatures will be way above February normals. The
focus of the forecast continues to be on a brief opportunity for
needed rainfall, centered on the Sunday night timeframe.

Friday...Weak cutoff low passes SE of SW KS, near the Red River
valley by 6 pm. No impacts expected from this feature. Few clouds,
light winds, and highs near 70. In other words, spring-like!

Saturday...Strong closed low digs to near San Diego by 6 pm, which
in turn forces strong shortwave ridging over the plains.
Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures in the 60s continue, with
a modest SE wind by afternoon.

Sunday...Highly amplified southern stream trough will be centered
near Tucson, Arizona by 6 pm. In response, southerly flow will
increase at all levels across Kansas, with strong moisture
advection from the Gulf of Mexico. 12z GFS progs surface dewpoints
into the 50s, and precipitable water of 1-1.2 inch across the SE
1/2 of the CWA by afternoon, and this appears reasonable. This
moisture and instability appear sufficient to justify a mention of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, most likely entering
the SW zones Sunday evening (as depicted by 12z ECMWF). Despite
the increasing clouds Sunday, warm advection will ensure more
unseasonably mild 60s.

Sunday night...This is our chance to get some needed rain.
Elongating trough across New Mexico will feed a strong southerly
moist flow across SW KS, with showers and thunderstorms. Highest
QPF will favor the eastern 1/2 of the CWA. Forecast builder pop
grids are in the chance category and were retained. It is noted,
though, that ECMWF-based pops are near 90% Sunday night. Increases
in rain coverage are likely in future forecasts. Stronger storms
with locally heavy rain are possible mainly east of Dodge City.

Monday...Cutoff low meanders to the Texas Big Bend, but moist
conveyor belt will be east of SW KS by this time, and the main
rain show will be over. No cold air behind this system, yielding
more highs in the 60s.

Tuesday...Sunny, dry and warm. Strong ridging reasserts itself
over SW KS, between departing southern stream low and west coast
trough. Still 60s and spring-like.

Wednesday...The warm pattern continues, ahead of intense Pacific
storm in California. 12z ECMWF tracks this storm north of SW KS
next Thursday keeping SW KS largely dry (what else is new this
winter?) In fact, ECMWF solution suggests an "earth, wind and
fire" event Thursday Feb 23rd, with a 987 mb surface low in NW KS
creating blowing dust, strong SW winds, and high fire danger.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Quiet aviation weather will continue through Thursday as downslope
flow through the lower to mid troposphere prevails across western
Kansas. Prevailing wind will be from the southwest, but speeds are
expected to remain at or below 8 knots. No major wind change in
direction or speed is forecast through Thursday, and sky
condition will remain clear under continued high pressure.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  71  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  29  72  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  31  72  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  30  71  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  34  70  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
P28  33  72  36  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid



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