Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 200532
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1132 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Quiet again across the high plains tonight, with scattered cirrus
drifting by in the increasingly SW flow aloft. Atmosphere is very
warm for this time of year (about 17C at 850 mb), and this
combined with the cirrus is keeping temperatures elevated tonight
in the 30s and 40s. Temperatures will easily hold in the 20s
through sunrise, and will hold above freezing across the SE zones.
Widespread stratus is expected in central Kansas by sunrise, the
western extent of which may reach Medicine Lodge and Barber
county. NAM suggests fog potential in this area early in the
morning as dewpoints rise into the 30s, and will monitor for any
impacts.

Saturday...SW flow aloft strengthens quickly, in response to a
546 dm closed low approaching the Grand Canyon by 6 pm. The
atmosphere will remain unseasonably mild, and with only scattered
cirrus, temperatures will again be well above January normals.
There will be a considerable temperature gradient this afternoon,
ranging from the mid 50s far east to the lower 70s far SW.
Pressure gradients will be weak today, resulting light and
variable winds chaotic in direction. Toward sunset, light winds
will trend SEly near 10 mph in response to surface cyclogenesis
in SE Colorado.

Tonight...As the surface cyclone in SE Colorado remains nearly
stationary, surface winds will maintain a SE to NE (easterly)
component. Consensus of short term models suggests associated
moisture advection will drive stratus and areas of fog westward
into portions of SW KS, particularly after midnight. Some high
resolution guidance is indicating very low visibilities across the
eastern CWA toward sunrise Sunday, and will need to monitor for
the need of a dense fog advisory. For now, just included areas of
fog in the grids after 3 am.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

The next winter storm affecting the central High Plains leaves a
large amount of uncertainty for our area of southwest Kansas.
Although the current NAM model is the most robust with respect to
snow amounts across our area, the ECMWF has been quite limited in
the amount of snow farther south in Kansas, owing largely to the
temperatures in the near surface layer, as well as timing and
placement of the stronger frontogenesis. WPC`s precipitation has
sided closer with the EC`s further north solution for the heavier
snow band, which seems reasonable, since the system would probably
need to dig further south to have enough cold air across sw KS for
significant snow amounts. Still, a changeover to snow is likely by
the afternoon, while the better frontogentic forcing is beginning
to lift north into Nebraska. We held off on winter weather
headlines for now and will need to see how the models may converge
on a solution. Either way the surface winds will be strong post
cold frontal, around 30 mph with gusts near 40. Best locations for
snow accums at this time area along he northwestern periphery of
our area (Syracuse- Dighton- Wakeeney/Hays).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

VFR will continue through Saturday with variable amounts of
cirrus. Widespread stratus in central Kansas by 12z Sat may get as
far west as P28, but have high confidence it will remain east of
the airports.  Weak pressure gradients will result in light winds
variable in direction through much of the TAF period. Toward 00z
Sunday, winds will trend SEly at 8-12 kts in response to surface
cyclogenesis in SE Colorado. Consensus of short term models is for
stratus and areas of fog to spread into SW KS Saturday night
through 12z Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  62  33  44 /   0   0   0  30
GCK  27  63  27  38 /   0   0   0  50
EHA  33  71  33  45 /   0   0   0  50
LBL  28  69  34  47 /   0   0   0  30
HYS  27  53  27  38 /   0   0  10  60
P28  34  61  34  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner


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