Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT WSR-88D TRENDS WITH A
PREFERENCE TO THE HRRR SOLUTION. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO 305 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS BASES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH (8-12KFT), SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOWING THAT KHYS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
AN IMPACTED TERMINAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGCK/KHYS
AND WITH MVFR AT KDDC TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH BR AND REDUCED
VIS. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ON THE AREAL EXTENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  52  77  54 /  50  40   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  74  49  79  52 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  74  52  79  52 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  74  52 /  60  40   0   0
P28  79  56  80  55 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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