Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270559
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1159 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 212 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Another day of quiet weather across southwest Kansas. Visible satellite
imagery only shows some high clouds over far southeast Barber county.
A fairly weak pressure gradient continues across the region and winds
are fairly weak for southwest Kansas standards. For tonight, the tranquil
weather pattern will continue. Zonal flow aloft will continue through
Monday. The net result is High Plains lee troughing. With the tighter
pressure gradient, the winds will be a little stronger Monday than
compared to today. Warmer temperatures are also expected across far
southwest Kansas with the warm air advection pattern. There will be
elevated fire weather concerns basically southwest of a line from Scott
City, KS to Ashland, KS. Outdoor burning is discouraged tomorrow. Otherwise,
highs tomorrow will range from upper 60s by Elkhart, KS to around 60F
to the north by I70.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

On Tuesday, a cold front will move through. There will quite the temperature
gradient across the region with only 50s to the north and 70s along
the Oklahoma border. Another day of elevated fire weather conditions
are possible on Tuesday. However, the worst may be located south of
the forecast district and into the Panhandles. The timing of the front
will determine this. Regardless, it will be breezy or even windy behind
the front and have gone with higher speeds after coordinating with
WFO neighbors. For precipitation, deep boundary layer moisture will
have been shunted off well the southeast, so significant precip is
not expected. Rain and snow with light amounts are forecast. Beyond
this, near normal temperatures and a dry forecast is expected Wed.
Highs will moderate to above normal by next weekend. Long range models
still show a quiet weather pattern through the second week of March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

A surface trough will develop in the lee of the Rockies through
the period, resulting in southerly winds increasing to 15 kts
with daytime heating. Winds will decrease to 10-12 kts
by 00z with diurnal cooling. VFR conditions can be expected
with only some cloud AOA100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  65  39  61 /   0  10   0  20
GCK  22  64  35  56 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  26  64  39  62 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  26  67  39  66 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  24  59  35  53 /   0   0   0  20
P28  30  63  43  70 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Finch



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