545
FXUS63 KDDC 080351
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1051 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will be dry through the rest of this week,
  with temperatures near May normals.

- Rain chances may return early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Surface observations at 8 pm showed very dry air over SW KS,
with dewpoints commonly in the teens and 20s. Wind directions
were highly variable, with a dry cold front front making quick
progress southward through the western zones. Lift from a
passing shortwave, the origin of the cold front, was producing
midlevel clouds and widespread virga across northern zones this
evening, but a dry boundary layer was evaporating any raindrops
long before they reach the ground. Winds will trend northerly
and modestly gusty over the next several hours behind the cold
front passage. Syracuse is reporting a north wind gusting near
40 mph at 7 pm MDT. With the cooler north winds, relative
humidity will climb above red flag criteria over the next hour,
and allowed the red flag warning to expire as scheduled.

18z GFS shows a net cooling of 6-8C at 850 mb on Wednesday,
which will trim afternoon temperatures closer to normal, in the
70s. Northwest winds will be noticeably elevated Wednesday,
gusting near 30 mph, but NWly downslope compression in very dry
air will allow temperatures to warm into the 70s easily. Few if
any clouds are expected Wednesday in a subsident dry regime.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A weak disturbance moving around the upper level low over the
Northern Plains will help push a cold front through the area this
evening. This feature will create enough lift for mid level clouds
to envelop the northern half to two thirds of the CWA this evening
into the early overnight hours.  There may be a few light showers
that make it to the ground along the I-70 corridor but have only
left ghost pops for this region at this time. These clouds should
dissipate or move out of the area after might leaving mostly clear
skies across western Kansas through tomorrow. Winds behind this
frontal boundary will shift to the north to northwest this
evening and continue through tomorrow night. As for
temperatures, lows tonight look to range from around 40 degrees
across west central Kansas to low 50s across south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow will be slightly cooler than what we saw
today and range from around 70 degrees across west central
Kansas to around 80 degrees across south central Kansas. Lows
tomorrow night will dip into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Dry conditions continue through the remainder of the work week
as high pressure builds over the Plains. This will lead to
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds.
An upper level low will spin above the four corners region
during this time frame then trek closer to the area this weekend
into the first part of next week. As this low gets closer, weak
disturbances may swing into the area bringing a chance of
precipitation to western Kansas. Otherwise expect an increase
in cloudiness. Temperatures throughout the long term will
generally be in the 70s Thursday and Friday with upper 70s to
low 80s Saturday. 80s return as highs Sunday into the first part
of next week. Lows will start out in the 40s with some 50s
across the eastern half of the CWA this weekend into the first
part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

No cloud or surface visby restrictions are anticipated through
these TAFs. A weak dry front was moving across the area and will
turn winds northerly area-wide, picking up to around 12 knots
with gusts to around 20 knots mid to late morning (15-17z).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Very dry conditions both This afternoon and Wednesday
afternoon. The difference is Today will be quite windy,
resulting in the conditions exceeding the red flag criteria
across the western half of the forecast area (roughly everywhere
west of a line from Wakeeney to Dodge and Ashland, all three
included. The expected much weaker winds on Wednesday afternoon
precludes the need for another warning, however, the conditions
are in the elevated category, meaning open fires can still
quickly escape and area very difficult to control.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...Hovorka_42