Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241731

National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1131 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

...Updated aviation section...


Early today a stationary front that was located near the Nebraska
border at 00z Tuesday will lift north as an upper level
disturbance crosses the Central Plains. No major change in this
air mass expected today across western Kansas and given the 950mb
to 850mb temperature trends it looks like another afternoon with
highs climbing back into the 60s. The main exception will be where
some lingering snow cover remains in west central Kansas. In this
area temperatures will once again be up to 10 degrees cooler.

A southerly flow today and tonight will begin to draw more humid
air back into south central and portions of western Kansas which
will result in increasing clouds, mainly east of highway 83. At
this time model sounding still do not indicating the depth of this
moisture will be deep enough for drizzle to develop, however cloud
cover and increasing dew points suggest overnight lows will be in
the upper 30s to mid 40s. Further west lows are expected to be
similar to the past few night with temperatures bottoming out into
the upper 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)

Early Wednesday morning another cold front will drop south back
to near the Nebraska border. This front is forecast to cross
western Kansas during the day and by late day this front is
forecast to extend from north central Kansas to extreme southeast
Colorado, as another upper level disturbance approaches the
central high plains from the west. Also on Wednesday a surface
trough will be crossing western Kansas. This surface trough will
be located ahead of the southward moving cold front. As this
boundary moves east the low level moisture that returned to
portions western Kansas Tuesday night will get shunted east into
central Kansas. Highs on Wednesday should have no problem
rebounding back into at least the mid to upper 60s south of the
cold front. Near the Oklahoma border highs around 70 will not be
out of the question. North of this cold front will keep afternoon
highs 5 to near 10F cooler.

Wednesday night precipitation chances will begin to improve,
especially near and east of these two surface boundaries given the
moisture return and warm air advection developing ahead of the
approaching upper level disturbance. North of these boundaries
isentropic lift will be improving, especially after 06z Thursday
so precipitation here may hold off until midnight or a little
later. At this time some dependencies exists between models on
magnitude of the lift north of this boundary but even given this
it does appear some light precipitation will be possible.

At this time given the temperature profiles precipitation type
appears to support mainly rain. the exception will be towards 12z
Thursday in north central and west central Kansas. in this area as
temperatures fall freezing rain and sleet look more likely.

Widespread precipitation is then expected to develop across all
of western Kansas early Thursday and then continue through
Thursday night as moisture and 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis
develops and then very slowly sinks south across western Kansas.
Boundary layer temperatures are expected to be cooling through the
day on Thursday which will result in the freezing and frozen
precipitation to spread south and become more widespread.

Given the latest temperature profiles Thursday and Thursday night
freezing rain and sleet are expected to over spread all of western
and south central Kansas late Thursday and early Thursday night.
Based the the latest top down approach an extended period of
freezing or frozen precipitation is expected southeast of a Hays
to Liberal line. In this area ice accumulations are expected. At
this time there still uncertainty on how much ice will accumulate
but it does appear that sufficient ice accumulations will exist to
cause some travel problems. Given this will issue an special
weather statement.

Friday and Friday night some light snow will still be possible
but lift will briefly weakens as a surface ridge axis crosses
western Kansas.. Towards daybreak on Saturday a southeasterly
upslope flow will begin to develop across western Kansas and
isentropic lift will be improving in the i290 to i305 level. Upper
level dynamics will also be improving early this weekend based on
the latest track of the next upper level wave which will be
located near the left exit region of a 250mb jet.

The coldest day of the week will be on Friday when highs that day
are expected to be around 30 degrees. Saturday will be a little
warmer but through the weekend period highs are expected to be
mainly in the 30s. Temperatures may approach 40 degrees in a few
locations on Sunday in far southwest. Kansas.



VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight with
increasing high clouds overnight. Winds will generally be from
just west of a southerly direction around 12 knots this afternoon
shifting to the southeast around 8 knots overnight.


DDC  62  35  63  38 /   0   0  10  40
GCK  64  29  62  33 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  71  34  67  33 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  66  32  68  39 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  60  34  58  34 /   0  10  10  50
P28  63  46  65  50 /   0  10  10  70


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
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