Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 060703
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
103 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
WINDS GENERALLY FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
INTO THE UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. A WEAK
LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BUT NOT HAVE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF AN IMPACT EXCEPT A WIND SHIFT. LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, HOWEVER, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK LIKELY GIVEN THE MARGINAL RH`S AND WEAK WINDS.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

FOR NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER AND WARMER. WILL
SEE THE MOST PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX OUT NICELY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING
THE LOWER 70S. THIS IS ABOVE GUIDANCE FROM THE SUPERBLEND AND NEIGHBORS
WERE TRENDING POSITIVE FROM THE BASELINE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG
THE WARMTH WILL LAST. THE GFS IS NOW SLOWER WITH A FROPA AND KEEPS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LONGER IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUING TO STICK AROUND LONGER AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH OUT WEST. A TREND TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST TEMPORAL DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN
10 KNOTS SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS
BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  29  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  26  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  60  28  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  62  26  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  29  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
P28  62  27  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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