Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 011725
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1225 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. UPPER 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTHWEST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY, A
WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BOTH IMPROVE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WESTERN KANSAS AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL COLORADO. 00Z NAM 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES JUST NORTH OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY
LATE DAY WILL BE WEST OF THIS AREA AND BE CONFINED MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STILL GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION IMPROVING EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON WHERE THE
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-1 KM AGL MEAN WINDS FROM THE NAM BEHIND THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY. GFS ALSO HAD 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AT 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. BASED ON THIS ALONG THE
THE LAYER AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WHEN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 30
MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHERE THE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ELSEWHERE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LARGE UPPER SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW, THE KHYS TAF SITE APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, BUT STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OF EITHER KGCK OR KDDC. CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MVFR RANGE, AND WINDS WILL GET QUITE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  53  70  46 /  10  30  30   0
GCK  81  51  69  44 /  10  60  20   0
EHA  80  48  69  45 /  10  20  20   0
LBL  82  52  70  46 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  80  52  66  42 /  20  70  40  10
P28  89  61  72  50 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE



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