182
FNUS73 KDLH 052014
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Island Lake RX...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
314 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 06.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Monday should be a mostly sunny day with no chance for
precipitation until the evening hours. We will see a day with
ample mixing, increasing to near 5000 feet by mid afternoon with
excellent smoke dispersal. This will allow stronger southeast
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts around 20 mph in the afternoon. The
occasional stronger gust up to 25 mph is possible, especially on
the northern side of the nearby lake. This good low level mixing
will also make for good drying in the afternoon, with relative
humidity dropping into the mid 30 percent range. Rain should begin
to arrive in the late evening hours, continuing through Tuesday.
Around of half inch of rain is expected by Tuesday night.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 22 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (59900 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (81700-102100 knot-ft) late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............60  62  63  65  67  68  68  69
RH..............47  44  44  41  39  39  39  37
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..11  12  12  12  12  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.18  19  20  20  20  20  20  19
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.22  23  23  23  23  23  23  24
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100060  82  94  98  100 102 100 98

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the evening. Chance of
                    rain showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL decreasing to 1600 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (62900-89800 knot-ft) decreasing to
                    fair to good (17800-30900 knot-ft) early in the
                    evening.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.04 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....              S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     20     20     30     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............68     64     56     54     52     51
RH..............40     45     57     61     69     74
20 ft wind......SE 12  SE 13  SE 17  SE 17  SE 16  SE 16
20 ft wind gust.19     21     23     23     23     23
Mix hgt (ft)....4300   1600   1200   1200   1300   1400
Transport wind..SE 25  SE 20  SE 22  SE 20  SE 21  SE 23
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100090     31     20     19     22     26

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning, then rain
                    showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms late in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1600, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 13 to 17 mph with gusts to around 26
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 25 mph decreasing to around 15
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (24000-37100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.42 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40     90     90     90     80     80
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      2
Temp............51     53     55     56     56     55
RH..............77     77     74     74     74     74
20 ft wind......SE 17  SE 18  E 17   E 16   E 15   E 13
20 ft wind gust.25     26     26     25     23     20
Mix hgt (ft)....1600   1700   1700   1800   2000   2100
Transport wind..SE 21  SE 24  SE 22  SE 20  SE 17  SE 16
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100029     36     33     31     30     29

$$
Forecaster...Ketzel
Requested by...Angela Schmitt
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413212.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL angela.schmitt@usda.gov