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000
FXUS63 KDMX 171749
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1249 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY /...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. DURING THE DAY TODAY THIS WILL BE REPLACED
BY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A VERY WEAK TROUGH OR FRONTAL ZONE
SETTING UP IN OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ZONE MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS DISCUSSED
BELOW...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE AFTER 00Z AND HAVE INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR THE 20Z-23Z PERIOD. ALSO MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST NEAR YESTERDAYS LEVELS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE LONGER TERM IS THE FIRST PROBLEM OF
THE DAY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE PRECIP. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS DO SHOW A DOUBLE STRUCTURE IN THE S/WV PATTERN WITH THE
FIRST MOVING THROUGH SRN IA TONIGHT...AND THE STRONGER CLIPPING
THE NERN PART OF THE CWA ON TUE. WILL PLAY IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
NMM RUNS FROM THIS EVENING. EXPECTED TO SEE THE TSRA FROM THE
FIRST EXIT THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SECOND SHORT AFFECTING
THE NERN ZONES TUE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A COUPLE DRY
DAYS BEFORE MOVING OFF. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH THE AXIS IF THE
UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH IF I-70...ALLOWING
SUFFICIENT FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO KEEP THE PATTERN
ACTIVE. PERIODIC TSRA WILL BEGIN WED NIGHT OVER THE WEST AND BE
OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
WARM SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL READING THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE AS LARGE POOL OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH IS DRAWN INTO IA. DEW POINTS WILL BE
FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S STATEWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
SCT CU AND BKN/OVC CIRRUS OVER SERN IA...INCLUDING NEAR KOTM.
EXPECT VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND EVEN INTO TUE
MORNING. ONLY MINOR CONCERN IS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUE MORNING.
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A SUBTLE HINT AT MVFR STRATUS AROUND
15Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT
THE MOMENT. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S STILL LINGER SOUTH AS WELL SO
HAVE ADDED MVFR VSBYS TO KOTM EARLY IN THE MORNING...AND THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LOWER CATEGORIES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...MS JUN 13
AVIATION...SMALL